# Donald Trump's 2016 General Election Campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 4, 2016, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901 "2016-05-04T02:37:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 130
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2583 "2016-07-14T14:34:37Z")
538 has Trump’s chances getting better. As of 10:30 EST, July 14: Forecast: Clinton 66.2% to win, Trump 33.8%, Now-cast (if election held today): Clinton 53.8%, Trump 46.2% This is largely due to recent national polls showing a downturn in Clinton support. 538 now projects in the now-cast that Ohio is a slight Trump advantage and Pennsylvania is a tossup. In the long term forecast, North Carolina has been flipped from slight Clinton to slight Trump. Everyone gloating about how Trump is doomed is not looking at the facts. He is close. There are a LOT of low information white guy voters out there and they are voting Trump. No, I don’t understand how this clown is doing it, either, but he is. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2584 "2016-07-14T14:46:32Z")
The polls are on the heels of Hillary getting spanked by the FBI findings and likely before the Sanders concession and endorsement. The electoral map and demographics are making a Trump win quite unlikely, but not as impossible as I would like. I’m hoping Trump’s convention is nearly as big a disaster as Romney’s and that Hillary names Warren VP next Friday and instantly kills Trump’s post-convention bounce. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2585 "2016-07-14T14:49:48Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > The polls are on the heels of Hillary getting spanked by the FBI findings and likely before the Sanders concession and endorsement. The electoral map and demographics are making a Trump win quite unlikely, but not as impossible as I would like. I’m hoping Trump’s convention is nearly as big a disaster as Romney’s and that Hillary names Warren VP next Friday and instantly kills Trump’s post-convention bounce. 1. What conceivable benefit does Clinton get from naming Elizabeth Warren as her running mate? What swing voters does she impress? Is Massachusetts a risky state? 2. I don’t even remember Romney’s 2012 convention. I recall Mitt Romney was there, and Paul Ryan, and many other white people. That’s about it. I think we have to hope Trump’s will be a much greater disaster than the footnote that was the 2012 GOP convention, providing it is not a big enough disaster to actually get people killed, which is a frightening possibility. ---
**Author:** ![Tangent](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tangent/32/3098_2.png) [@Tangent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tangent)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2586 "2016-07-14T14:56:13Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > And where are the future talents for the GOP? Usually, up and comers are showcased, like Marco Rubio at the 2012 convention. Any light on the Republican horizon? I’ll be surprised if we don’t see one of the older Trump kids (Ivanka, Don Jr., or Eric) run for office in 2-4 years. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2587 "2016-07-14T14:58:04Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > 1. What conceivable benefit does Clinton get from naming Elizabeth Warren as her running mate? What swing voters does she impress? Is Massachusetts a risky state? > > 2. I don’t even remember Romney’s 2012 convention. I recall Mitt Romney was there, and Paul Ryan, and many other white people. That’s about it. I think we have to hope Trump’s will be a much greater disaster than the footnote that was the 2012 GOP convention, providing it is not a big enough disaster to actually get people killed, which is a frightening possibility. 1. Warren electrifies the base and will increase Democratic turnout across the board. She truly loves to ridicule Trump and does it very well. 2- Romney had a slick video all set to go that probably would have helped his campaign. Instead, it got bumped due to Clint Eastwood’s incoherent debate with an empty chair. Then Christie gives the memorable keynote: “Me me me me me me me me me me me me me me, oh and by the way vote for whatshisname.” ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2588 "2016-07-14T14:59:43Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > I’ve heard a lot of people say this, but I found his defense of the numbers pretty persuasive. A lot of it comes down to probability. If, to simplify things, you take ten states where he thought Candidate X had a 60% chance of winning, and in four of those states Candidate Y won, most people will say “Silver got almost half of them wrong” even though this is the \*optimal \*result for his prediction. Whereas if Candidate X won all ten, people would say “Silver nailed it on all ten”, but if he’s honest he has to wonder if this result suggests that he gave Candidate Y too high a chance in some or all of those states. True but by same token the statistical variation makes it very difficult to say how right such a prediction is, just as it makes it hard to say how wrong it is. 10 races is quite few samples to say how close the underlying probability is to 60% just because it happens to come out at 6. And then in reality the implicit assumption of a stationary probability distribution is shaky also. The general accuracy of polls or relevance of past trends may change fairly quickly. This comes up a lot in another area of prediction involving few outcomes and non-stationary distribution: accuracy of expected return estimates in financial markets. It’s typically taken as given that accurate short term return estimation is impossible (it should be anyway), but if an estimate is made of expected return over several years, only a relatively few trials can be made in the typical career, and the true underlying distribution of returns may change significantly over several cycles. In contrast to either, you can get a pretty good handle on whether a 5 day weather prediction model is accurate or not: lots of 5 day periods in a few years, and the true underlying statistical distribution of weather outcomes is probably only changing slightly over that period. My impression of Nate Silver is of one of great seriousness in trying to be accurate. I’m willing to accept he’s among the better forecasters. However the graph of that ‘nowcast’ model is kind of shocking, I referred to Clinton’s chances being higher ‘nowcast’ than forecast when his article ‘Clinton 80%’ showed up on news sites last week or week before, which I think it was. Now ‘nowcast’ drops like a stone from 81.6 to 53.8! The ‘nowcast’ model doesn’t see to view the recent Quinnipiac polls as ‘rubbish’ (is anyone else annoyed by that kind of Anglicism in an ostensible US article about a US election? I’ve noticed a trend in that direction, but maybe Americanisms are bugging Brits more too in the age of the internet). Though as mentioned above, those aren’t the only recent worrisome state polls for Clinton. But that model seems _very_ sensitive. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2589 "2016-07-14T16:14:25Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > This is largely due to recent national polls showing a downturn in Clinton support. 538 now projects in the now-cast that Ohio is a slight Trump advantage and Pennsylvania is a tossup. In the long term forecast, North Carolina has been flipped from slight Clinton to slight Trump. But Colorado and Virginia have stayed with double digit Clinton leads. Clinton has had probably the worst week of her campaign. If so, “near tie” with Trump is the likely floor of her support and, while she definitely needs to make it better, it’s still her game to lose. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2590 "2016-07-14T17:14:05Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > But Colorado and Virginia have stayed with double digit Clinton leads. How does Clinton have a double digit lead in Virginia? ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2591 "2016-07-14T17:19:23Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > 538 has Trump’s chances getting better. As of 10:30 EST, July 14: > > Forecast: Clinton 66.2% to win, Trump 33.8%, > > Now-cast (if election held today): Clinton 53.8%, Trump 46.2% > > This is largely due to recent national polls showing a downturn in Clinton support. 538 now projects in the now-cast that Ohio is a slight Trump advantage and Pennsylvania is a tossup. In the long term forecast, North Carolina has been flipped from slight Clinton to slight Trump. > > Everyone gloating about how Trump is doomed is not looking at the facts. He is close. There are a LOT of low information white guy voters out there and they are voting Trump. No, I don’t understand how this clown is doing it, either, but he is. The public loves an underdog. Even a rich ignorant xenophobic underdog. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2592 "2016-07-14T17:49:53Z")
The openly gay CEO of PayPal is set to speak at the convention. One wonders why a gay individual would even want to speak at a convention whose official platform relegates him to second class citizenship. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2593 "2016-07-14T17:52:03Z")
TPM headline speaks for itself: [Sad! Trump Says Palin Won’t Attend RNC Because Alaska Is ‘A Long Ways Away’](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/palin-not-going-rnc-too-far-away) But the [original article](http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-explains-palins-absence-from-gop-convention-speakers/article/2596490#.V4e9FGvyS5s.twitter) is pretty great, too - > [@](#): > > “She was asked,” Trump told the Washington Examiner in a phone interview on Thursday. “It’s a little bit difficult because of where she is. We love Sarah. Little bit difficult because of, you know, it’s a long ways away.” ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2594 "2016-07-14T17:54:29Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > But Colorado and Virginia have stayed with double digit Clinton leads. > > Clinton has had probably the worst week of her campaign. If so, “near tie” with Trump is the likely floor of her support and, while she definitely needs to make it better, it’s still her game to lose. Clinton has a secret weapon. The debates. Everyone knows Trump can be baited to boil over with one ignorant, bigoted comment after another. Watch the polls post debate. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2595 "2016-07-14T18:02:03Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > How does Clinton have a double digit lead in Virginia? My mistake. I had read something earlier but it actually said “high single or double digits”. Clinton is +7 in the latest VA poll (Fox News) taken 7/9-7/12 Doesn’t really change my point but it was inaccurate the first time around. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2596 "2016-07-14T18:15:56Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > Clinton has a secret weapon. The debates. Everyone knows Trump can be baited to boil over with one ignorant, bigoted comment after another. > > Watch the polls post debate. I bet Bush, Kasich, Cruz and Rubio all thought debates were their “secret weapon” too. Well, maybe not Rubio. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2597 "2016-07-14T18:27:56Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I bet Bush, Kasich, Cruz and Rubio all thought debates were their “secret weapon” too. Well, maybe not Rubio. Everytime I see this it is clear the what is ignored is that that took place in the Republican sandbox, the rest of the park has a different audience. Sure, the sandbox audience is part of the whole, but Hillary has to convince less people than Trump has to now. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2598 "2016-07-14T19:01:59Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I bet Bush, Kasich, Cruz and Rubio all thought debates were their “secret weapon” too. I am reminded of SNL’s parody of the Bush 1.0-Dukakis debates. Playing the elder Bush, Dana Carvey did his wonderful impression of Bush avoiding a question for a full minute, saying nothing, aand finally just repeating the lines of “We’re on track. Stay the course. Kinder, gentler nation. Thousand points a’light.” The camera goes to Dukakis (Jon Lovitz) who says simply, “I can’t believe I’m losing to this guy.” Beware, beware the danger of low expectations. I’ve said it before and will again; if Trump remembers to wear his pants and doesn’t blow up, he will tie the debate at worst and possibly win. **It doesn’t matter if what he says is repetitive and moronic.** It does not matter if it’s just painfully, Billy-Madison-gets-no-points stupid. If he stays on his dumb message and doesn’t explode, he could do very well. And he didn’t explode during the GOP debates. [QUOTE=GIGObuster] …the rest of the park has a different audience. [/QUOTE] While that’s true, it’s not as if Trump has to convince that many people. Staying on message and got going crazy will be harder against Clinton than it was against the motley gang he was up against in the primaries, and of course he’s fighting one opponent, not a bunch of guys who also have to jockey with each other. ---
**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2599 "2016-07-14T19:17:56Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > The openly gay CEO of PayPal is set to speak at the convention. One wonders why a gay individual would even want to speak at a convention whose official platform relegates him to second class citizenship. > **[What's Peter Thiel going to say at the Republican National Convention? |...](https://techcrunch.com/2016/07/14/whats-peter-thiel-going-to-say-at-the-republican-national-convention/)** > > Peter Thiel, Silicon Valley's own wild card, is slated to speak at the Republican National Convention next Thursday, according to the New York Times. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2600 "2016-07-14T19:29:52Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Beware, beware the danger of low expectations. I’ve said it before and will again; if Trump remembers to wear his pants and doesn’t blow up, he will tie the debate at worst and possibly win. **It doesn’t matter if what he says is repetitive and moronic.** It does not matter if it’s just painfully, Billy-Madison-gets-no-points stupid. If he stays on his dumb message and doesn’t explode, he could do very well. Absolutely dead-on. Expect to hear the phrase “surprisingly presidential” bandied about a lot. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2601 "2016-07-14T19:35:09Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Everytime I see this it is clear the what is ignored is that that took place in the Republican sandbox, the rest of the park has a different audience. Sure, the sandbox audience is part of the whole, but Hillary has to convince less people than Trump has to now. I am not ignoring that at all. But a bigger sandbox does not a secret weapon make. Hillary is not going to get some big bump in the polls because she has a cool debate performance and Trump has a more flustered or angry one. What group of people do you imagine don’t already know their respective personalities or grip on the issues? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2602 "2016-07-14T19:38:14Z")
As I noted before, Trump has also the disadvantage that unlike previous contests the right wing media is working less like the echo chamber that it was for past Republican candidates. > **[“Boring” “Nothingburger”: Conservatives Pan Pence As Trump’s Running Mate](https://www.mediamatters.org/donald-trump/boring-nothingburger-conservatives-pan-pence-trumps-running-mate)** > > Right-wing media figures criticized presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s reported decision to tap Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate, calling Pence a “not-smart coward” with “low energy.” > [@](#): > > The Federalist’s Mollie Hemingway: “Pence Is One Of The Few Possibilities That Would Make Me Less Likely To Vote For Trump. He’s A Not-Smart Coward." > > Conservative Radio Host Steve Deace: “Another Beta Choice For Trump, Who Likes to Surround Himself With Betas.” > > Conservative Columnist Andrew Stiles: “Mike Pence Is Boring And Low Energy AF.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=129) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=131)