# Donald Trump's 2016 General Election Campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 4, 2016, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901 "2016-05-04T02:37:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 133
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2643 "2016-07-15T13:39:57Z")
> [@Mighty\_Girl](#): > > It would rhyme with pair, except for the French R being very different. Explains why there were no French pirates. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2644 "2016-07-15T14:08:41Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > That was not solid, during summer and after Obama was ahead by just 2 in the aggregate. The bump you talk about **disappeared** in October and then it was a virtual tie until the polls showed Obama ahead by 2 at the very end. > > I took that bump and the tie into account by averaging and 2-3 points is what It looks that took place. Huffpost has the final prediction as a 0.8% advantage for Obama, so obviously their model was wrong. Obama won the popular vote by 4%. The ongoing 538 projections were more accurate, figuring Obama for about a 3-point margin; Sam Wang was quite a bit more off, giving Obama only a two-point advantage and incorrectly calling Florida for Romney. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2645 "2016-07-15T14:21:23Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > On the heels of the Q polls (Clinton is losing!) comes new battleground polling from NBC/WSJ: > > ``` > Colorado: Clinton 43%, Trump 35% > Florida: Clinton 44%, Trump 37% (another polls just released put Clinton +5) > North Carolina: Clinton 44%, Trump 38% > Virginia: Clinton 44%, Trump 35% > > ``` > > This is really more to point out the folly in getting excited over a single poll than to say that Clinton has turned it around. Although the fact that it is Marist and that Florida pretty much unchanged from their last poll (others not polled by Marist before) does reassure … Is it just me or do polls seem to have more variation about the mean this time? Quinnipiac and Marist are both reputable polling houses (538 rated as A- and A respectively and both with mild R leans) yet they are running 10 to 11 points different in multiple states. Both RV polls. Why? ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2646 "2016-07-15T14:50:46Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Is it just me or do polls seem to have more variation about the mean this time? Quinnipiac and Marist are both reputable polling houses (538 rated as A- and A respectively and both with mild R leans) yet they are running 10 to 11 points different in multiple states. Both RV polls. Why? More than last time same stage I don’t know. But as for reason the partisan article linked above calling the Q polls ‘rubbish’ was factual in one sense. Quinnipiac is making a determination that white turnout will be higher than 2012. The article called that ‘rigging the poll’ and not giving the ‘real numbers’ but I assume Q has a reason for believing that, which might be valid, and their polls do not have a record of being skewed significantly to Republicans in the past. There aren’t ‘real numbers’ for turnout by group in elections which haven’t happened yet. It’s varied in the past, and some of ‘trend to higher minority turnout’ could be simply Obama. Today’s new national polls: CBS/NYT (538 rating: A- D+0.06) tied; Rasmussen (C+ R+2) Trump +7, LV others are RV, it is valid to say Rasmussen’s polls have been R friendly but wow; YouGov (B, D+1.6) Clinton plus 2. Anybody can speculate as they like and say no f’ing way this or that future outcome, but based on facts as available it’s a close race. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2647 "2016-07-15T14:51:09Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > :smack: You’ve got to be shitting me. This is a real quote? > > Mmhmmm. I suppose we’re not allowed to wager money here, or I’d offer one (and give you odds). But I guaran-fucking-tee you, he’s not coming within sniffing distance of this win. SlackerInc, this is another ‘drumpf’ violation. You should know better. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2648 "2016-07-15T14:57:08Z")
> [@Bayard](#): > > I think Clinton is probably going to win, but “probably” isn’t very reassuring to me when the alternative is Trump. I’m planning to have a constant, slow-motion breakdown between now and the election. I won’t feel at ease until Clinton is absolutely, positively the President. A 30% or 40% chance of President Trump is terrifying. I’d rather face a 50% chance of President Romney or even President Jeb Bush than a 30% chance of Trump. Get out of my head! ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2649 "2016-07-15T14:58:01Z")
Rasmussen’s polls are not only R-friendly but they seem to have a habit of having huge +R outliers early in the cycle and then contracting the closer you get to election day so the final results aren’t as mind-bogglingly off as the initial polls. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2650 "2016-07-15T16:18:29Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > More than last time same stage I don’t know. But as for reason the partisan article linked above calling the Q polls ‘rubbish’ was factual in one sense. Quinnipiac is making a determination that white turnout will be higher than 2012. The article called that ‘rigging the poll’ and not giving the ‘real numbers’ but I assume Q has a reason for believing that, which might be valid, and their polls do not have a record of being skewed significantly to Republicans in the past. > > There aren’t ‘real numbers’ for turnout by group in elections which haven’t happened yet. It’s varied in the past, and some of ‘trend to higher minority turnout’ could be simply Obama. > > Today’s new national polls: CBS/NYT (538 rating: A- D+0.06) tied; Rasmussen (C+ R+2) Trump +7, LV others are RV, it is valid to say Rasmussen’s polls have been R friendly but wow; YouGov (B, D+1.6) Clinton plus 2. Anybody can speculate as they like and say no f’ing way this or that future outcome, but based on facts as available it’s a close race. Had not actually read the article but I guess I should not be surprised. So RV polls are still guessing likely voting demographics in how they weight their populations, not just weighted to RV demographics … huh. It has of course been the big issue in my mind re polling results: the question of who actually turns out this time. Does Trump actually get non-college educated Whites, especially males, to get off the butts and vote more than they have in the past? Or do they stay home again? Black voter turnout though we can state with some confidence was NOT just “simply Obama.” [See here.](http://cookpolitical.com/story/8666) It was pretty much rising linearly from 1996 to 2008 (from 53 to 65%) and actually flattened in 2012. Will Hispanic voters turnout more given Trump? So on. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2651 "2016-07-15T16:43:36Z")
[US election: Anti-Trump rebellion quashed in vote](http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36808119) > [@](#): > > The movement to stop Donald Trump from gaining the Republican presidential nomination prior to the party’s convention has been crushed by a vote. > > The party’s rules committee rejected a proposal that would have allowed delegates to back the candidate of their choice.The panel approved a rule that would “bound” delegates to candidates decided by state primaries and caucuses. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2652 "2016-07-15T17:30:52Z")
[Christie ain’t nobody’s errand boy.](http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/furious-christie-refuses-to-pick-up-trumps-dry-cleaning) > [@](#): > > NEW YORK (The Borowitz Report)—Governor Chris Christie, of New Jersey, angrily refused to pick up Donald Trump’s dry cleaning during a tense encounter between the two men on Friday, campaign sources confirm. > > According to Trump aides, Christie stomped into the presumptive Republican nominee’s office and hurled a dry-cleaning ticket onto his desk, telling Trump, “You can pick up your own damn dry cleaning.” > > The New Jersey governor then stormed out, and has not been seen by Trump or his staffers since. It’s The Borowitz Report. Satire. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2653 "2016-07-15T17:51:57Z")
In true Trump fashion, I’m not going to bring up Laundrygate. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2654 "2016-07-15T18:29:02Z")
If you were wondering which between “T” and “P” is … er, well the, uh, “bottom,” here’s the [first Trump/Pence logo](http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2016/07/15/trump-campaign-unveils-new-logo.html?via=desktop&source=copyurl). ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2655 "2016-07-15T18:44:10Z")
This is a petty ridiculous thing, I know. But is anyone else annoyed by how long Trump wears his tie? I just saw a picture of him with Pence, and the end of his tie had to be hanging three or four inches below his belt. I know, I know. It’s a dumb thing to nitpick and ties are dumb. But still. The point is supposed to be right at your belt line, dammit! ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2656 "2016-07-15T18:49:00Z")
> [@Bayard](#): > > This is a petty ridiculous thing, I know. But is anyone else annoyed by how long Trump wears his tie? I just saw a picture of him with Pence, and the end of his tie had to be hanging three or four inches below his belt. I know, I know. It’s a dumb thing to nitpick and ties are dumb. But still. The point is supposed to be right at your belt line, dammit! He _wants_ you looking at his crotch. And it’s working! ---
**Author:** ![Tangent](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tangent/32/3098_2.png) [@Tangent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tangent)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2657 "2016-07-15T18:50:58Z")
> [@Bayard](#): > > This is a petty ridiculous thing, I know. But is anyone else annoyed by how long Trump wears his tie? I just saw a picture of him with Pence, and the end of his tie had to be hanging three or four inches below his belt. I know, I know. It’s a dumb thing to nitpick and ties are dumb. But still. The point is supposed to be right at your belt line, dammit! Maybe he’s overcompensating. ---
**Author:** ![AndrewL](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3d9bf3/32.png) [@AndrewL](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AndrewL)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2658 "2016-07-15T18:51:40Z")
> [@Bayard](#): > > This is a petty ridiculous thing, I know. But is anyone else annoyed by how long Trump wears his tie? I just saw a picture of him with Pence, and the end of his tie had to be hanging three or four inches below his belt. I know, I know. It’s a dumb thing to nitpick and ties are dumb. But still. The point is supposed to be right at your belt line, dammit! Trump’s ties are bigger than other people’s ties! They’re YUUUGE! ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2659 "2016-07-15T18:55:10Z")
Normally, a candidate gets a bounce in the polls after announcing a running mate. It seems to me that Trump is unlikely to get much of one, since his announcement is massively overshadowed by the tragedy in Nice, and also because his running mate is pure white-bread milquetoast, unlikely to appeal to any but a specific set of white, evangelical “Christians.” ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2660 "2016-07-15T18:56:30Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > He _wants_ you looking at his crotch. And it’s working! It’s not a tie, it’s an arrow. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2661 "2016-07-15T18:57:19Z")
[John “The Dean” Dingell never fails to make me laugh on Twitter.](https://twitter.com/JohnDingell/status/753985891459297281) ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2662 "2016-07-15T19:03:13Z")
[GOP begs Sheldon Adelson for $6 million to cover convention shortfall](http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/rnc-begs-adelson-for-6-million-to-cover-convention-shortfall-225571). Interestingly, the letter sent identified a number of companies that the RNC is saying backed out, and some of those company’s are fighting their being included in this list. > [@](#): > > Dating back to January, convention organizers, the Republican National Committee and its chief strategist, Sean Spicer, have denied that Trump would cost convention organizers money. Another incorrect pundit… 😉 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=132) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=134)