# Donald Trump's 2016 General Election Campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 4, 2016, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901 "2016-05-04T02:37:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 180
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2016, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3583 "2016-08-03T22:55:38Z")
The more I hear from mr trump, the more I believe that Baghdad bob is alive and well; and apparently running for president. It is seriously uncanny. i would find it very funny, if I did not live in the u s. ---
**Author:** ![Alley\_Dweller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alley_dweller/32/430_2.png) [@Alley\_Dweller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alley_Dweller)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2016, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3584 "2016-08-03T23:01:25Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Just a few weeks ago, Newt was hoping to be his running mate. Maybe he forgot already. No, I think Newt is remembering he didn’t get picked. Revenge is a dish best served cold. ---
**Author:** ![Tangent](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tangent/32/3098_2.png) [@Tangent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tangent)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2016, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3585 "2016-08-03T23:28:42Z")
Well, maybe lukewarm. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3586 "2016-08-04T01:56:00Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > [“The current race is which of these two is the more unacceptable, because right now neither of them is acceptable,” Gingrich said in a Wednesday morning telephone interview. “Trump is helping her to win by proving he is more unacceptable than she is.”](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-reaches-new-level-of-panic-over-trumps-candidacy/2016/08/03/de461880-5988-11e6-831d-0324760ca856_story.html) > > :eek: > > (The key word there is, y’know, “Gingrich”.) Hmm. Would that be the Newt who said just a couple of weeks ago in Cleveland… "I’m… proud to be here as a Republican activist [testifying?] to the extra effort Donald Trump has invested in bringing the Republican Party together… …to paraphrase Ted Cruz, if you want to protect the Constitution of United States, the only possible candidate this fall is the Trump-Pence Republican ticket… …There have been many fascinating things to watch about the extraordinary historic rise of Donald Trump, but the most significant has been Donald Trump’s courage to tell some important truths about our national security… …Let’s be clear, Donald Trump is right. We are at war with radical Islamists. We are losing the war. And we must change course to win the war… …Donald Trump won our party’s nomination because he is willing to tell the truth about the things that matter. He has a great running mate in Mike Pence. They will put our safety first and they will defend America first. We can be proud to stand with them… …So tonight, the challenge for everyone in this hall and everyone Republican, Democrat, or independent [is] to reject the suicidal dishonesty of Hillary Clinton and her establishment allies, and to stand with Donald Trump and Mike Pence for what we know is true…" From here: [Republican Convention: Newt Gingrich Responds to Ted Cruz | TIME](http://time.com/4416407/republican-convention-newt-gingrich-ted-cruz-transcript-video-speech/) ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3587 "2016-08-04T02:00:13Z")
Posted without comment: [http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-08-03/donald-trump-is-the-lone-ranger-candidate?int=a14709](http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-08-03/donald-trump-is-the-lone-ranger-candidate?int=a14709) > [@](#): > > Trump was alarmed by a call he received last week from a senior adviser who is not campaign chairman Paul Manafort or Manafort assistant Rick Gates, according to an account provided to U.S. News. The caller lamented the campaign’s lack of state-by-state organization and warned the nominee, “You’re not going to win.” > > The candidate, not surprisingly, hit the roof. But the person who followed up with the adviser on the disturbing message wasn’t Manafort or Gates, according to the source. It was Jared Kushner, the influential son-in-law who is married to Ivanka Trump and who is held in high regard by her father. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3588 "2016-08-04T02:50:22Z")
Take a look at the swing in one week on the latest 538 nowcast. > **[2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now)** > > Nate Silver's predictions and polling data for the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump That has to be some kind of record for the biggest swing in a single week in election history? At least that’s something Trump can say he won at ! ---
**Author:** ![Tangent](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tangent/32/3098_2.png) [@Tangent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tangent)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3589 "2016-08-04T03:11:34Z")
Apparently when speaking today, Trump re-opened some old self-inflicted wounds by bringing up his Megyn Kelly feud (“blood coming out of her… _wherever_”) and his claims of Muslims cheering in the streets in New Jersey after the 9/11 attacks. [http://www.weeklystandard.com/trump-remembers-his-greatest-hits/article/2003655](http://www.weeklystandard.com/trump-remembers-his-greatest-hits/article/2003655) As one pundit said, it looks like Trump is on a suicide run. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3590 "2016-08-04T03:36:33Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > Georgia GOP Elector [declares](http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/08/03/georgia-republican-says-he-might-withhold-electoral-college-vote-from-donald-trump/) that he won’t cast his electoral vote for Trump. I like this sentence best: > [@Baoky Vu](#): > > And to my Republican brothers and sisters in arms, politics should be a honorable sport. Well said, Mr. Vu; well said. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3591 "2016-08-04T03:52:27Z")
> [@Tangent](#): > > Apparently when speaking today, Trump re-opened some old self-inflicted wounds by bringing up his Megyn Kelly feud (“blood coming out of her… _wherever_”) and his claims of Muslims cheering in the streets in New Jersey after the 9/11 attacks. > > [http://www.weeklystandard.com/trump-remembers-his-greatest-hits/article/2003655](http://www.weeklystandard.com/trump-remembers-his-greatest-hits/article/2003655) > As one pundit said, it looks like Trump is on a suicide run. > [@](#): > > He then took on an advertisement that showed him mocking a disabled reporter and said that the coverage was unfair, considering his financial track record of supporting the disabled. > > “Nobody’s better to people with disabilities than me. I spend millions and millions of dollars on buildings taking care of people with disabilities,” he said. “I spend millions of dollars on ramps.” :sigh: Too bad **cladking** is no longer with us. ;)😛 ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3592 "2016-08-04T04:15:01Z")
> [@jasg](#): > > Another good read from George Lakoff - [Understanding Trump](https://georgelakoff.com/2016/07/23/understanding-trump-2/). That was excellent. Thank you very much for bringing that my attention, **jasg**. ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3593 "2016-08-04T04:24:15Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Wait a second! What if he’s right, and Obama _can_ run again? OK, him being right about something is a bit of a stretch, but still… Obama wasn’t really born in the US, OK? So he was never really elected president, and if he were elected in November it wouldn’t be for a third term! Simple. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3594 "2016-08-04T05:04:46Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > Take a look at the swing in one week on the latest 538 nowcast. > [2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now) > > That has to be some kind of record for the biggest swing in a single week in election history? At least that’s something Trump can say he won at ! [Sam Wang’s forecast he uses for the Princeton Election Consortium has been a lot more stable, and he makes the case that the 538 NowCast is too sensitive to short-term poll movement](http://election.princeton.edu/2016/08/03/why-is-the-pec-polls-only-forecast-so-stable/): > [@](#): > > The issue is that it is a forecast based on current polls only. In my view, such a forecast has the conceptual flaw of overweighting the freshest data. It amounts to reporting a snapshot of today’s conditions, blurred out a bit. To make an analogy, this is like forecasting the temperature a week from now using a single temperature reading. You should not predict weather using a single reading taken on a hot day or in the middle of the night. Jon Stewart had a routine like this once to make fun of deniers who say that because it is snowing today, climate change must be a hoax. (at night: “The sun will never rise again!”) His model is a lot simpler, and a lot more stable. [Here’s the graph of his polls-only model as of August 3, going back to May.](http://election.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/PEC-November-win-probability-3aug2016.jpg) It’s been hovering at \>80% victory probability for Clinton the entire time, with no big swings one way or the other. BTW, Wang is the guy who [was fairly confident Trump would win the Republican Primary back in January](http://election.princeton.edu/2016/01/05/what-december-polls-can-tell-us-about-the-gop-nomination/), ([more](http://election.princeton.edu/2016/01/27/hey-may-i-just-sign-off-until-summer/)) based on his data-driven approach. Wang doesn’t complicate his models and he doesn’t engage in punditry and he still gets the predictions right more often than not. It’s important to have multiple, independent forecasters with multiple, independent models all looking at the same data. It’s also important to realize the strengths of each model and why they differ. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3595 "2016-08-04T06:09:39Z")
> [@Tangent](#): > > As one pundit said, it looks like Trump is on a suicide run. Paul Krugman referred to it as a “derp spiral”, which I think is more accurate. Trump isn’t deliberately trying to sabotage himself - he’s just incapable of letting any perceived threat to his Greatness so unanswered. He’ll keep this up until November, insisting all the time that he’s winning, and then blame “Crooked Hillary” at the end when he doesn’t get what he wants. Sad! ---
**Author:** ![duality72](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duality72/32/3910_2.png) [@duality72](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/duality72)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3596 "2016-08-04T06:21:27Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > [Sam Wang’s forecast he uses for the Princeton Election Consortium has been a lot more stable, and he makes the case that the 538 NowCast is too sensitive to short-term poll movement](http://election.princeton.edu/2016/08/03/why-is-the-pec-polls-only-forecast-so-stable/) So he’s complaining that the NowCast does exactly what it’s supposed to and that it doesn’t predict the election result, which is not at all what it’s supposed to do and what the other 538 models are for. I’m sure he’s a bright guy, but this does him no favors. ---
**Author:** ![choie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/choie/32/7829_2.png) [@choie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/choie)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 6:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3597 "2016-08-04T06:25:52Z")
Man. Even ignoring the nowcast, the “polls-only” has never (to my knowledge) had Clinton in the 70s before. But that’s where she is as of now (73.2% to Trump’s 26.7%). Even the most stable edition, the “polls-plus” forecast, has hit a high of 69.4% Clinton, 30.6% Trump. Curious to see if/when the post-Khan kerfuffle polls start showing up. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 10:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3598 "2016-08-04T10:28:34Z")
The man who appeared in Johnson’s “[Confessions of a Republican](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiG0AE8zdTU)” ad 52 years ago has sat down to make [a sequel](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeYKFRV34kY) for Clinton. It’s shorter and less detailed than the original, but it’s powerful all the same; Trump as president would be just as dangerous, if not more so, than Goldwater would’ve been. ---
**Author:** ![crucible](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@crucible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crucible)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3599 "2016-08-04T11:08:22Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Just a few weeks ago, Newt was hoping to be his running mate. Maybe he forgot already. not kidding. I think Newt believed that as VP, he could control Trump’s most insane impulses, and, if I am not too far from reality, participate in the Constitutional process required to disqualify the President because of inability to fulfill the requirements of his office (mental breakdown?). It would be a sort of internal impeachment that would lead to, of course, Newt in the Oval Office. Presidents have sometimes chosen a running mate whose main qualification was that no one wanted them to be President, ever! Sarah P is an example. Trump chose a far right winger who likely was too far ‘right’ to ever be nominated for the big job, but decent enough to be allowed to attend funerals as the President’s representative… Anyway, Newt is a pretty smart guy. If he were a Dem, I might even admire some of his proposals. ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3600 "2016-08-04T13:30:56Z")
I’ve been reading the most recent WaPo [interview with Trump](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/03/donald-trump-has-a-secret-state-strategy-that-you-cant-know-about/), and something dawned on me when reading his blather about voter fraud. I don’t think that he has voted for a long time, if he ever has. He seems to think that, without voter ID laws, people can just vote as many times as they want. I have voted for 44 years in a couple of states, and every time I have voted, I have had to state my name, my name had to be found in the roll book, and I have had to sign my name in the book. Isn’t that how it works all over the US? Do we have a Republican nominee who has never voted? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3601 "2016-08-04T13:34:29Z")
He has people for that. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3602 "2016-08-04T13:36:15Z")
> [@Crotalus](#): > > I’ve been reading the most recent WaPo [interview with Trump](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/03/donald-trump-has-a-secret-state-strategy-that-you-cant-know-about/), and something dawned on me when reading his blather about voter fraud. I don’t think that he has voted for a long time, if he ever has. He seems to think that, without voter ID laws, people can just vote as many times as they want. I have voted for 44 years in a couple of states, and every time I have voted, I have had to state my name, my name had to be found in the roll book, and I have had to sign my name in the book. Isn’t that how it works all over the US? Do we have a Republican nominee who has never voted? Aren’t the records of who voted public? Couldn’t an enterprising reporter check to see if Trump turned up at the polls? ISTR someone shaming Rush Limbaugh several years ago because he hadn’t voted in the previous election. I figured there was some way to see the sign-in records. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=179) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=181)