# Donald Trump's 2016 General Election Campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 4, 2016, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901 "2016-05-04T02:37:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 190
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3783 "2016-08-07T01:33:13Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Polling’s all over the place. One says Hillary[up by 15%](https://gma.yahoo.com/video/poll-shows-donald-trump-down-111503846.html); one says Hillary [up by only 3%.](http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/290612-poll-clinton-up-3-points-over-trump) Actually only a few go that low (and none show Trump ahead) The aggregates are the places to go and they do show that when looking at the best polls Clinton is ahead by 7 or so points. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton) ---
**Author:** ![leftfield6](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leftfield6/32/18780_2.png) [@leftfield6](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/leftfield6)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3784 "2016-08-07T01:35:56Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > By the way, why does Trump have so much more Facebook followers? He has 10.2 million, nearly double Hillary’s 5.4 million. Aren’t Democrats and the younger generation more likely to be Internet-connected? I’m not a FB user, but am a Twitter user. I follow HRC and left wing folks there, but I also follow Trump. I like to get my chuckles directly from the course. I bet the same thing is happening over on FB. Trump frequently mentions his number of followers as evidence of how popular he is, his lack of self awareness does not let him see that half of us are following him to laugh at him. ---
**Author:** ![ZipperJJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zipperjj/32/211_2.png) [@ZipperJJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZipperJJ)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3785 "2016-08-07T01:38:12Z")
Someone (Colbert?) said “Cinnamon Hitler”. I liked that one 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3786 "2016-08-07T01:40:40Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > By the way, why does Trump have so much more Facebook followers? He has 10.2 million, nearly double Hillary’s 5.4 million. Aren’t Democrats and the younger generation more likely to be Internet-connected? Many of Donald’s Facebook followers may be [fake](http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trumps-facebook-followers-2015-6). ---
**Author:** ![holmes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e95f7d/32.png) [@holmes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/holmes)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3787 "2016-08-07T01:41:42Z")
In other words, the Howard Stern [syndrome](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9G6xu-J_Dmc). ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3788 "2016-08-07T01:57:08Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Actually only a few go that low (and none show Trump ahead) The aggregates are the places to go and they do show that when looking at the best polls Clinton is ahead by 7 or so points. > > [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton) Hillary is, in all probability, up by 8 or 9 points nationally, and she is now polling anywhere from 10-15 percent in states that are in play. Doesn’t matter. These are momentary reactions to Trump’s gaffes. He has survived these weekly news cycles before and has recovered within as little time as a month. I’m not saying Trump will win – he’s clearly an underdog. But this race will tighten as long as Donald pays attention to Manafort. ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3789 "2016-08-07T02:17:02Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > I do wonder if he is closer to Jackson or to [Buchanan](http://deadpresidents.tumblr.com/post/82207624776/i-am-the-last-president-of-the-united-states). James, Pat, or Edgar? ---
**Author:** ![MacCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maccat/32/216_2.png) [@MacCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MacCat)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3790 "2016-08-07T03:07:28Z")
> [@Jack\_Batty](#): > > I’m trying to keep Donny Two-Times alive. But only hardcore \*Goodfellas \*fans get it. Teflon Don? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3791 "2016-08-07T03:34:38Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Hillary is, in all probability, up by 8 or 9 points nationally, and she is now polling anywhere from 10-15 percent in states that are in play. > > Doesn’t matter. These are momentary reactions to Trump’s gaffes. He has survived these weekly news cycles before and has recovered within as little time as a month. I’m not saying Trump will win – he’s clearly an underdog. But this race will tighten as long as Donald pays attention to Manafort. Not sure if you are seeing the data you are responding to. The long term trend line runs mostly Clinton +4 to+7 with fairly brief momentary Trump upticks that he has quickly dropped back down from. Not sure if you are seeing the same campaign. Trump has shown no ability to pay attention to Manafort, or possibly anything or anyone. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3792 "2016-08-07T03:55:56Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Hillary is, in all probability, up by 8 or 9 points nationally, and she is now polling anywhere from 10-15 percent in states that are in play. > > Doesn’t matter. These are momentary reactions to Trump’s gaffes. He has survived these weekly news cycles before and has recovered within as little time as a month. I’m not saying Trump will win – he’s clearly an underdog. But this race will tighten as long as Donald pays attention to Manafort. Looking at the numbers in those polls in your link, and doing my own adjustments for how old they are, how many people they polled, and whether the people polled were registered or likely voters, I come up with the number: Hillary +6.7%. Solid, but it still gives me the bubbleguts. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3793 "2016-08-07T04:41:10Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Facebook is the realm of middle aged Americans now. It’s like, so ten years ago. Except for that segment known as Black Twitter, it’s the realm of angry white men. ---
**Author:** ![choie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/choie/32/7829_2.png) [@choie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/choie)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3794 "2016-08-07T05:08:53Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Except for that segment known as Black Twitter, it’s the realm of angry white men. Er… Black Twitter is on Twitter, oddly enough. Facebook does skew much older these days, though I’d say the female contingent on FB is equal to the male contingent (angry or not). Could just be confirmation bias on my part. But anyway, yeah, there are a _lot_ of dumb-ass bigots on FB, which I usually only notice when I see some forwarded “look at these asshats!” message from one of my friends. Anger and a misunderstood belief in anonymity/safety on the web combine to make the Trump fans louder. My “block” and “unfollow” buttons get a lot of use. I prefer to mute those Trumpeters. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Tangent](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tangent/32/3098_2.png) [@Tangent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tangent)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3795 "2016-08-07T05:19:36Z")
> [@Jack\_Batty](#): > > I’m trying to keep Donny Two-Times alive. But only hardcore \*Goodfellas \*fans get it. “I have the best words. The best words.” ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 9:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3796 "2016-08-07T09:16:07Z")
I had my first person-to-person encounter with one of Loser Donald’s supporters at work tonight. It was a guy in a Trump hat that I had to threaten to ban from the store after several Latino customers told me he was sneaking up behind them, smashing the back wheels of his cart onto the floor, and laughing when they got startled. _This_ is the kind of petty, childish racism that this wannabe Hitler is legitimizing. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 9:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3797 "2016-08-07T09:20:47Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > By the way, why does Trump have so much more Facebook followers? He has 10.2 million, nearly double Hillary’s 5.4 million. Aren’t Democrats and the younger generation more likely to be Internet-connected? He’s an actual celebrity, they have way more social media followers than politicians. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 9:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3798 "2016-08-07T09:27:04Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > By the way, why does Trump have so much more Facebook followers? He has 10.2 million, nearly double Hillary’s 5.4 million. Aren’t Democrats and the younger generation more likely to be Internet-connected? Trump puts on a more compelling show. I’m a Democrat, and he’s the only politician I follow on any social media outlets. I want to see the entire train as it wrecks. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 9:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3799 "2016-08-07T09:45:01Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > He’s an actual celebrity, they have way more social media followers than politicians. Facebook has been around for what, 10 years now? That’s long enough that some millennial could have followed him when he was “that really rich guy on The Apprentice” and forgotten about it long long before he became a Tangerine Nightmare. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 10:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3800 "2016-08-07T10:08:17Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Not sure if you are seeing the data you are responding to. > > The long term trend line runs mostly Clinton +4 to+7 with fairly brief momentary Trump upticks that he has quickly dropped back down from. > > Not sure if you are seeing the same campaign. Trump has shown no ability to pay attention to Manafort, or possibly anything or anyone. Not sure which long-term trend lines you’re referring to, but ones before June 8 when both candidates became their party’s nominees mean nothing. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Trump stumbled out of the gate badly then, when he was arguing that the federal judge in his case should recuse himself because of his Hispanic ancestry. Similar to his spat with the Khans and others, he kept it going for a solid week, and plummeted in the polls. And then…he recovered, and even took a slight lead after the Republican convention. Trump can indeed pay attention to Paul Manafort, and that’s how he has been able to keep this campaign much closer than everyone thought, precisely because everyone believed - perhaps hoped - that Trump would engage in his weirdness on a daily basis. But something almost magical happens when Trump stops bullying on other individual Americans and starts bullying Hillary Clinton: the crowd goes wild. They enjoy it. They gobble it up. Because Hillary is just not that popular, and she keeps blowing it in interviews and reinforcing her own negatives. She might have even had the opportunity to finish off Trump completely this past week, but blew it with her tortured explanations to questions about James Comey’s testimony. I predict the race is going to tighten, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Trump pulls to within the margin of error in national polls by early September, just in time for the debates. ---
**Author:** ![Maastricht](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a88e57/32.png) [@Maastricht](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maastricht)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 10:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3801 "2016-08-07T10:31:36Z")
How did I miss this ? [Trump promises to crack down on pornography when he’s President.](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-pledge-against-pornography_us_57a00928e4b0e2e15eb701fc) > [@](#): > > By doing so, Trump has promised not only to fight child pornography and sex trafficking, but “give serious consideration to appointing a Presidential Commission to examine the harmful public health impact of Internet pornography on youth, families and the American culture,” said Anti-pornography group Enough is Enough. > > “Making the Internet safer for children and families is a critical step in making America safe again,” said Donna Rice Hughes, president and CEO of Enough is Enough in a statement, echoing one of Trump’s favorite campaign slogans. > > Ironically, the announcement came as The New York Post featured on its cover ― not once, but twice ― risqué 1995 photographs reportedly showing Trump’s wife, Melania, in the nude. Question. Trump apparently has planted the NY post’s pictures of Melania, to distract from the Khan- misery. Did he sign that anti-porn pledge THE VERY SAME DAY to garner maximum outrage and attention ? Does he want attention, even if it is the kind of attention he gets here? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/3802 "2016-08-07T10:52:57Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Not sure which long-term trend lines you’re referring to, but ones before June 8 when both candidates became their party’s nominees mean nothing. Zero. Zilch. Nada. … > > … I predict the race is going to tighten, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Trump pulls to within the margin of error in national polls by early September, just in time for the debates. While history may be no guide it is in fact the polls in peri-convention period that mean the least (albeit still more than zilch) with longer term trend lines before that being relatively more predictive. (With significant errors still.) I would shocked if at least one or two polls do not end up showing a “virtual tie” before the debates. I would be surprised if the rolling average does not get to 3 again at least briefly. But persistently, barring something that significantly changes the race, the range of the rolling average or aggregated result is highly likely to remain in that Clinton +4 to 7 the vast majority of the time. If it does settle there over the next two weeks then it is increasingly likely to stay near there. I expect that Clinton will outperform the polls on election day also. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=189) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=191)