# Donald Trump's 2016 General Election Campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 4, 2016, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901 "2016-05-04T02:37:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 285
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5683 "2016-09-02T19:52:22Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > If 538 is right and Trump has nearly a three in ten chance of winning, that is not a “Big lead” at all. It’s a SLIGHT lead. If she had a big lead, the Now-Cast would state Clinton was essentially certain of victory were it held today. “Big leads” don’t leave the possibility of either side winning. > > Clinton has never had a huge lead at any point in the race. We’re talking polls over 2 months out still. Statistics is the king of “it could happen”, which is pretty much what we’re seeing. Compared to Trump’s chances of winning, Clinton still has a not-insignificant chance of a double digit victory. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5684 "2016-09-02T19:59:51Z")
[SFGate, which is the _San Francisco Chronicle_’s online site, says that if there’s a taco truck on every corner, that’s creation of 9.6 million jobs.](http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/The-national-economic-implications-of-a-taco-9200007.php) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5685 "2016-09-02T20:01:53Z")
As to whether or not the lead is “big” I’ll [quote Silver] ([Election Update: It’s Too Soon For Clinton To Run Out The Clock | FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-its-too-soon-for-clinton-to-run-out-the-clock/)) from just a few days back: it’s not at all close but it is, in his mind, uncertain. > [@Silver](#): > > It isn’t all that close — Clinton is up by around 6 percentage points as best as we can figure, a larger lead than Obama had at almost any point in 2012 or until the very end of the 2008 campaign. But it’s August, and the number of undecided voters is high, and so the outcome remains fairly uncertain. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5686 "2016-09-02T20:03:48Z")
[quote=“DSeid, post:5685, topic:753901”] As to whether or not the lead is “big” I’ll > [@](#): > > ([Election Update: It’s Too Soon For Clinton To Run Out The Clock | FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-its-too-soon-for-clinton-to-run-out-the-clock/)) from just a few days back: it’s not at all close but it is, in his mind, uncertain. This is my view as well. My view, pretty much, is whatever Silver says. I see no point in substituting my own far inferior judgment on the state of the race to his, considering his track record. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5687 "2016-09-02T20:37:19Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Have there been any Big Major polls since Il Douche told Latinos to go fuck themselves? [AAHHAHAHahHHahhaahahahah!!!!!](http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016)…-Latino-voters Trump ‘on track’ to hit an historic low with Latino voters > [@](#): > > …Hillary Clinton is trouncing Donald Trump among Latino voters, 70-19 percent, in a new poll released Friday by polling outfit Latino Decisions and the immigration advocacy group America’s Voice… ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5688 "2016-09-02T20:38:07Z")
Who the living fuck are that 19 percent? BTW, he didn’t actually say _fuck_. [He bleeped himself, live](http://gawker.com/donald-trump-didnt-say-fuck-at-a-new-hampshire-rally-1758549325). ---
**Author:** ![Mighty\_Girl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7bcc69/32.png) [@Mighty\_Girl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mighty_Girl)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5689 "2016-09-02T20:40:50Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Who the living fuck are that 19 percent? The people against tacos? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5690 "2016-09-02T20:40:51Z")
It is not unknown among Hispanic Americans to desire to pull up the ladder now that they are here and have what they want. Human, all too human. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5691 "2016-09-02T20:42:46Z")
… and they probably thought they’d never have to see another taco again in their lives, too. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5692 "2016-09-02T20:52:14Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > It is not unknown among Hispanic Americans to desire to pull up the ladder now that they are here and have what they want. Human, all too human. I forget which comedian who said his grandfather was the type of guy who leaves Ellis Island, signs his immigration papers and then turns to the guy behind him in line and says “Now get off my land”. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5693 "2016-09-02T20:53:36Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > If 538 is right and Trump has nearly a three in ten chance of winning, that is not a “Big lead” at all. It’s a SLIGHT lead. If she had a big lead, the Now-Cast would state Clinton was essentially certain of victory were it held today. “Big leads” don’t leave the possibility of either side winning. > > Clinton has never had a huge lead at any point in the race. Sam Wang, otoh, says that Clinton’s win probability is better than that: > [@Sam Wang](#): > > As of September 2, 12:03PM EDT: > Snapshot (96 state polls): Clinton 341, Trump 197 EV Meta-margin: Clinton +4.9% > > Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 90%, Bayesian 94% No personal opinion, I won’t be happy until she’s sworn in, but it’s nice to know that early voting starts in three weeks. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5694 "2016-09-02T20:57:44Z")
Oh - and Donald hasn’t paid his top staffers yet - rofl. > **[Trump Campaign Reportedly Saved By Not Paying At Least 10 Top Staffers](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-campaign-has-not-paid-at-least-ten-top-staffers)** > > Donald Trump's campaign has not paid at least 10 top staffers, including former top aide Paul Manafort, California state director Tim Clark, former advisor Michael Caputo and two other senior aides… > [@](#): > > Donald Trump’s campaign has not paid at least 10 top staffers, including former top aide Paul Manafort, California state director Tim Clark, former advisor Michael Caputo and two other senior aides who also left the campaign in June. > > According to a review of federal campaign finance filings by Reuters published Friday, the Trump campaign has run on a shoestring budget in part by not paying its top consultants and advisors, in what the report characterized as a “departure from campaign finance norms.” That cheers me up. ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5695 "2016-09-02T20:58:54Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Who the living fuck are that 19 percent? > > BTW, he didn’t actually say _fuck_. [He bleeped himself, live](http://gawker.com/donald-trump-didnt-say-fuck-at-a-new-hampshire-rally-1758549325). Cuban-Americans. _Older_ Cuban-Americans… ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5696 "2016-09-02T21:00:54Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Who the living fuck are that 19 percent? > > BTW, he didn’t actually say _fuck_. [He bleeped himself, live](http://gawker.com/donald-trump-didnt-say-fuck-at-a-new-hampshire-rally-1758549325). I think we are finding the crazification index of Hispanics. Less than the overall American one 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5697 "2016-09-02T21:17:56Z")
> [@Bridget\_Burke](#): > > Cuban-Americans. _Older_ Cuban-Americans… Older Cuban Americans aren’t even close to 19% of the Hispanic population. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5698 "2016-09-02T21:40:17Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > This is my view as well. My view, pretty much, is whatever Silver says. I see no point in substituting my own far inferior judgment on the state of the race to his, considering his track record. > [@Merneith](#): > > Sam Wang, otoh, says that Clinton’s win probability is better than that: … It must be noted that Silver does have an interest in keeping the perception of a horse race going while Wang does not. And that Wang’s track record is as good as Silver’s is. But for the purpose of that comment - neither thinks the race is “close” - objectively it is not. The difference is the confidence they each express in how much current polling will or will not change to the level of a Trump win. Silver emphasizes the numbers of undecideds and the unknowns of turnout and Wang emphasizes how, excepting expected turbulence around the conventions, stable the race has been, behaving like other elections since 1992, with low variability, and a S.D. from current polling of about 3% (decreasing as time goes on). Hence Silver says not close but has less confidence that it won’t change (and conveniently he’s “right” no matter what happens having hedged greatly), and Wang is more willing to go out a limb. ---
**Author:** ![carrps](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carrps/32/2957_2.png) [@carrps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carrps)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5699 "2016-09-02T21:48:24Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > Anyone who tells you “life is pain” is trying to sell you pain relievers. > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Life is pain. Anyone who tells you differently is selling something. They’re just not selling you any tacos. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5700 "2016-09-02T22:10:47Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > [SFGate, which is the _San Francisco Chronicle_’s online site, says that if there’s a taco truck on every corner, that’s creation of 9.6 million jobs.](http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/The-national-economic-implications-of-a-taco-9200007.php) I live in the Bay Area, and we have taco trucks on nearly every corner and very low unemployment, so it must be true. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5701 "2016-09-02T22:26:34Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > It must be noted that Silver does have an interest in keeping the perception of a horse race going while Wang does not. And that Wang’s track record is as good as Silver’s is. … And FWIW NYT’s The Upshot puts it at 87% probable for Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5702 "2016-09-02T22:34:17Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I forget which comedian who said his grandfather was the type of guy who leaves Ellis Island, signs his immigration papers and then turns to the guy behind him in line and says “Now get off my land”. “An immigrant is someone who got here after you did.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=284) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=286)