# Donald Trump's 2016 General Election Campaign
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [May 4, 2016, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901 "2016-05-04T02:37:34Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 294
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2016, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5863 "2016-09-06T23:03:00Z")
Damn Google voice recognition!
---
### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2016, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5864 "2016-09-06T23:32:16Z")
* * *
> [@SlackerInc](#):
>
> Can anyone explain Wang’s “random drift” vs. Bayesian models?
Simplest explanation I quickly found:
> [@](#):
>
> Here at the Princeton Election Consortium we follow a relatively simple procedure to generate (1) a snapshot of conditions today (see the top line of the banner), and (2) a prediction of November outcomes (“Nov. win probability” in banner).
> [ul]
> use the median and distribution of state polls to estimate each state’s current margin and win probability (see the right sidebar),
>
> ```
> combine the probabilities to make an exact snapshot of today (the EV count above),
>
> calculate how far national sentiment is from an electoral tie (the Meta-Margin),
>
> calculate what would happen if the nation were to drift in either direction by November (gives the random-drift probability), and finally
>
> impose a prior that the final outcome will be somewhere in the vicinity of where it’s been so far, a.k.a. regression to the mean (gives the Bayesian probability)[/ul]
>
> ```
[http://election.princeton.edu/2016/07/26/differences-between-models/](http://election.princeton.edu/2016/07/26/differences-between-models/)
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### Author:  [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2016, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5865 "2016-09-06T23:36:28Z")
Thanks!
---
### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5866 "2016-09-07T01:57:17Z")
> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> Polls rarely swing that much after Labor Day.
Sorry, but this is not at all accurate – polls have swung significantly after labor day in several races since the 1990s. The 2000 race between Gore and Bush was an example. Gore led that race at Labor Day – and lost. The 2008 race was close until the financial crisis, but wasn’t decided until October. Romney closed the gap to pull nearly even (and ahead in some polls) after the first debate before losing after the infamous 47% tape and Obama sealed it with Hurricane Sandy’s response. This is not to say Trump is going to win but polls rise and fall not because they are produced by a random integer generator - they are influenced by real events and voters perceptions of how candidates respond in real time. Trump is losing but he’s pulling to within striking distance.
> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> It looks close to you because the numbers seem kind of close but history shows it isn’t. [Presidential candidates leading polls at this point in the campaign have almost always won](http://www.vox.com/2016/8/11/12426346/trump-polls-today). Yes there will be some volatility; yes everyone should still get out and vote against Trump but I think barring some major event I am much more confident in a Clinton win than 538 thinks.
There is a danger in using past precedents to gauge the current race. The fact is that Trump has recovered from scandals and poll deficits that would have finished off almost any other candidate – Clinton included – early in the race. Clinton herself has a bit of Teflon but the standard to which she is held is higher than Trump, mainly because they are targeting different kinds of voters. The conventional wisdom is that Trump doesn’t have enough of the kinds of voters he is targeting. I’m not so convinced of that.
Trump represents a myth that much of white Christian America wants to believe in, a mythical time that was somehow simpler and worry-free.
---
### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5867 "2016-09-07T01:59:04Z")
> [@JohnT](#):
>
> Their endorsement is tomorrow. I believe this is the first time they’ve actually ran a negative endorsement.
And Trump’s response is, who the hell reads newspapers anymore anyway?
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### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5868 "2016-09-07T02:05:41Z")
> [@JohnT](#):
>
> [http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-polling-227750](http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-polling-227750)
>
> “In poll after poll, the Trump isn’t even close to winning a majority of the vote”
>
> (Not my wording)
Trump won’t have to win the majority; he’ll simply need to win a plurality. And he’ll just have to prevent Hillary from winning via the electoral college.
This is not a race between Hillary and Donald. It also includes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein in several states. You do remember a guy named Ralph Nader and how a supposedly sophomoric candidate somehow defeated a boring political wonk with close ties to Bill Clinton, right?
Hillary Clinton is less liked than Gore – like a LOT less. She is not going to get as many minority voters to actually show up at the polls as Obama.
This race is not over at all, and the polls are moving in Trump’s favor.
---
### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5869 "2016-09-07T02:09:14Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#):
>
> [Nonsense](http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-republican-electoral-map-20160502-story.html). Even if he had not started the campaign with high negative ratings and then continued to make them worse with his various offensive comments, and even if he put in those great debate performances, he would still face an uphill climb.
And yet, despite all of those offensive comments, he is closing ground on Hillary Clinton. How does a candidate fall behind in the post-convention polls by nearly 10 points and pull nearly even within the span of a month – TWICE?!
Maybe it’s not Donald Trump who should be worried.
---
### Author:  [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5870 "2016-09-07T02:11:29Z")
Gore did not lose.
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### Author:  [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5871 "2016-09-07T02:14:49Z")
> [@asahi](#):
>
> Trump won’t have to win the majority; he’ll simply need to win a plurality. And he’ll just have to prevent Hillary from winning via the electoral college.
>
> This is not a race between Hillary and Donald. It also includes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein in several states. You do remember a guy named Ralph Nader and how a supposedly sophomoric candidate somehow defeated a boring political wonk with close ties to Bill Clinton, right?
>
> Hillary Clinton is less liked than Gore – like a LOT less. She is not going to get as many minority voters to actually show up at the polls as Obama.
>
> This race is not over at all, and the polls are moving in Trump’s favor.
Well, speaking of that electoral college and moving in Trump’s favor…
[http://www.statesman.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/washington-post-poll-clinton-and-trump-locked-in-d/nsR6r/](http://www.statesman.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/washington-post-poll-clinton-and-trump-locked-in-d/nsR6r/)
> [@](#):
>
> According to the 50-state poll, Clinton has a lead of 4 points or more in 20 states and the District of Columbia for a total of 244 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Trump has a lead of 4 points or better in 20 states, for 168 electoral votes.
And while Trump is within striking distance, the distance looks farther when one looks back to states that were supposed to be “already in the bag”
> [@](#):
>
> The Post described the Texas outcome, based on a survey of more than 5,000 Texans, as the “most unexpected” finding in the poll, which was conducted of 74,000 registered voters nationally between Aug. 9 and Sept. 1.
>
> The poll shows Clinton leading Trump in Texas by 1 point — 46 to 45 percent. In a four-way race, Clinton and Trump are tied at 40 percent each, Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson has 11 percent, Green Party candidate Jill Stein has 3 percent and 6 percent are undecided. The poll had no margin of sampling error because it didn’t use random sampling.
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### Author:  [@MacCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MacCat)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5872 "2016-09-07T02:18:32Z")
> [@asahi](#):
>
> How does a candidate fall behind in the post-convention polls by nearly 10 points and pull nearly even within the span of a month – TWICE?!
By cable news pounding on nonsense like emails and the Clinton Foundation to keep it from becoming a likely landslide, killing the goose that laid the golden egg.
---
### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5873 "2016-09-07T02:24:58Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#):
>
> Gore did not lose.
Yeah, well tell that to the people of Iraq.
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### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5874 "2016-09-07T02:29:02Z")
> [@asahi](#):
>
> And Trump’s response is, who the hell reads newspapers anymore anyway?
Voters. Highly likely voters.
Old people. Voters.
Readers. Voters.
What do I care about Trump’s response to it anyway? He’s only going to get, max, 40% of the people with it. But he lost some in Dallas today, that is for sure.
Thousand cuts.
---
### Author:  [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5875 "2016-09-07T02:29:15Z")
> [@asahi](#):
>
> And yet, despite all of those offensive comments, he is closing ground on Hillary Clinton. How does a candidate fall behind in the post-convention polls by nearly 10 points and pull nearly even within the span of a month – TWICE?!
>
> Maybe it’s not Donald Trump who should be worried.
He in fact did not “close ground” or “pull nearly even”. He stayed stuck below 40% like he always has. It is Hillary who has risen and then given some of her points back to undecided. It is my belief that Trump will never actually gain any ground. The unenthusiastic Hillary voters say they are undecided but after the election people will say something happened to cause them to surge toward her right at the end. That will be incorrect but it will be impossible to disprove.
BTW, Obama would have won those elections even without the financial crisis or the Sarah Palin pick or the 47% comments. That’s just not a very exciting story for the media to tell. “Early Frontrunner Maintains Consistent Lead, Wins Comfortably.” Yawn.
---
### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5876 "2016-09-07T02:29:24Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#):
>
> Well, speaking of that electoral college and moving in Trump’s favor…
>
> [http://www.statesman.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/washington-post-poll-clinton-and-trump-locked-in-d/nsR6r/](http://www.statesman.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/washington-post-poll-clinton-and-trump-locked-in-d/nsR6r/)
> And while Trump is within striking distance, the distance looks farther when one looks back to states that were supposed to be “already in the bag”
Hillary winning Texas is not going to happen, and the Post is really embarrassing itself by publishing anything remotely suggesting that she could. Trump is definitely going to make some red states more interesting than they would be with a more mainstream candidate, but Arizona, Texas, and Georgia are going to vote against Hillary, even if they don’t necessarily want to vote for Trump.
---
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5877 "2016-09-07T02:31:10Z")
A number of people have rightly noted when you have a pollling average of 3.5%, some polls are going to be at 8%, others will be negative 1%. We have seen both polls over the past three days.
But it’s more fun to bed wet, isn’t it?
---
### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5878 "2016-09-07T02:31:18Z")
> [@asahi](#):
>
> Sorry, but this is not at all accurate – polls have swung significantly after labor day in several races since the 1990s. The 2000 race between Gore and Bush was an example. Gore led that race at Labor Day – and lost. The 2008 race was close until the financial crisis, but wasn’t decided until October. Romney closed the gap to pull nearly even (and ahead in some polls) after the first debate before losing after the infamous 47% tape and Obama sealed it with Hurricane Sandy’s response. This is not to say Trump is going to win but polls rise and fall not because they are produced by a random integer generator - they are influenced by real events and voters perceptions of how candidates respond in real time. Trump is losing but he’s pulling to within striking distance.
>
> There is a danger in using past precedents to gauge the current race. The fact is that Trump has recovered from scandals and poll deficits that would have finished off almost any other candidate – Clinton included – early in the race. Clinton herself has a bit of Teflon but the standard to which she is held is higher than Trump, mainly because they are targeting different kinds of voters. The conventional wisdom is that Trump doesn’t have enough of the kinds of voters he is targeting. I’m not so convinced of that.
>
> Trump represents a myth that much of white Christian America wants to believe in, a mythical time that was somehow simpler and worry-free.
Sorry, this is all wild wide-eyed worried thinking. Trump is not going to win enough swing states to overcome his baked in defecit. There is some danger in assuming the past will repeat itself but you need to bring more to the table than what you have to refute it. Using Gore as an example shows the weakness of your argument.
---
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5879 "2016-09-07T02:36:48Z")
> [@asahi](#):
>
> Hillary winning Texas is not going to happen, and the Post is really embarrassing itself by publishing anything remotely suggesting that she could. Trump is definitely going to make some red states more interesting than they would be with a more mainstream candidate, but Arizona, Texas, and Georgia are going to vote against Hillary, even if they don’t necessarily want to vote for Trump.
I think the Washington Post can worry about their own reputation, thank you very much. But they appreciate your concern.
As a person who actually lives in Texas, I can tell you that Donald Trump is not as popular here as you believe he is. There are more Hillary signs and stickers than there are Trump signs. Johnson has the support of a lot of local Republicans who prefer smaller government but socially liberal theories.
Trump has his support, no doubt, and is very likely going to win the state, but I am saying this based upon Texas’s history, not because I’m seeing impervious-level support
---
### Author:  [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5880 "2016-09-07T02:36:53Z")
> [@asahi](#):
>
> Hillary winning Texas is not going to happen, and the Post is really embarrassing itself by publishing anything remotely suggesting that she could.
As reported that is indeed unlikely, but you are falling now for the killing the messenger maneuver. As with polls that have been skewed in favor of the Republicans one has to look at the trend, so we will have to wait and check for more polls to see if there is something there, in the meantime just as it is not good to depend on only one poll it is also not a good idea to dismiss it with very little reason.
> [@asahi](#):
>
> Trump is definitely going to make some red states more interesting than they would be with a more mainstream candidate, but Arizona, Texas, and Georgia are going to vote against Hillary, even if they don’t necessarily want to vote for Trump.
Likely, but as noted before, as for now and AFAIK Trump has less chances to win in the general election than Clinton has to win those red states.
---
### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5881 "2016-09-07T02:38:04Z")
And asahi, if you’re so damn confident that Trump is taking Georgia, you shouldn’t be quaking in your boots about Clinton losing the states she’s +4 in
---
### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5882 "2016-09-07T02:38:08Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#):
>
> He in fact did not “close ground” or “pull nearly even”. He stayed stuck below 40% like he always has. It is Hillary who has risen and then given some of her points back to undecided.
LOL! And you know this how? But even if we accept that argument, isn’t a third (and a fourth) party a problem for Hillary? Isn’t that how Al Gore lost in 2000?
> [@SlackerInc](#):
>
> It is **my belief** that Trump will never actually gain any ground. The unenthusiastic Hillary voters say they are undecided but after the election people will say something happened to cause them to surge toward her right at the end. That will be incorrect but it will be impossible to disprove.
You can believe what you want. Hillary Clinton is the most unpopular “leading” candidate of all time and she’s running against an equally unpopular candidate, but one who’s also a cult candidate.
> [@SlackerInc](#):
>
> BTW, Obama would have won those elections even without the financial crisis or the Sarah Palin pic or the 47% comments. That’s just not a very exciting story for the media to tell. “Early Frontrunner Maintains Consistent Lead, Wins Comfortably.” Yawn.
Again, go to Wikipedia and look up Bush - Gore 2000.
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