### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5883 "2016-09-07T02:42:29Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#):
>
> As reported that is indeed unlikely, but you are falling now for the killing the messenger maneuver. As with polls that have been skewed in favor of the Republicans one has to look at the trend, so we will have to wait and check for more polls to see if there is something there, in the meantime just as it is not good to depend on only one poll it is also not a good idea to dismiss it with very little reason.
> Likely, but as noted before, As for now and AFAIK Trump has less chances to win in the general election than Clinton has to win those red states.
I acknowledge that Clinton is still, by most accounts, winning the race, especially in terms of the electoral vote.
But people who think the race is over right now remind me of sports writers who declare a championship series over because no team has ever come back from a 3-1 or 3-0 deficit. Nobody is capable of such a feat – until someone actually pulls it off.
---
### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5884 "2016-09-07T02:43:49Z")
> [@JohnT](#):
>
> I think the Washington Post can worry about their own reputation, thank you very much. But they appreciate your concern.
>
> As a person who actually lives in Texas, I can tell you that Donald Trump is not as popular here as you believe he is. There are more Hillary signs and stickers than there are Trump signs. Johnson has the support of a lot of local Republicans who prefer smaller government but socially liberal theories.
>
> Trump has his support, no doubt, and is very likely going to win the state, but I am saying this based upon Texas’s history, not because I’m seeing impervious-level support
You’re living in San Antonio. Visit DFW sometime.
---
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5885 "2016-09-07T02:47:22Z")
I do, quite often. Where in the Metroplex do you live? We should have lunch.
---
### Author:  [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5886 "2016-09-07T02:48:05Z")
I don’t need to look up 2000. I followed that election very closely–at least as closely as I am following this one.
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### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5887 "2016-09-07T02:51:54Z")
Forgot to add: my family and I are going to be up in Dallas doing Thanksgiving… that might be a good time. Let me know.
---
### Author:  [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5888 "2016-09-07T02:56:51Z")
> [@asahi](#):
>
> Sorry, but this is not at all accurate – polls have swung significantly after labor day in several races since the 1990s. The 2000 race between Gore and Bush was an example. Gore led that race at Labor Day – and lost. The 2008 race was close until the financial crisis, but wasn’t decided until October. Romney closed the gap to pull nearly even (and ahead in some polls) after the first debate before losing after the infamous 47% tape and Obama sealed it with Hurricane Sandy’s response. This is not to say Trump is going to win but polls rise and fall not because they are produced by a random integer generator - they are influenced by real events and voters perceptions of how candidates respond in real time. Trump is losing but he’s pulling to within striking distance.
>
> \
>
> There is a danger in using past precedents to gauge the current race. The fact is that Trump has recovered from scandals and poll deficits that would have finished off almost any other candidate – Clinton included – early in the race. Clinton herself has a bit of Teflon but the standard to which she is held is higher than Trump, mainly because they are targeting different kinds of voters. The conventional wisdom is that Trump doesn’t have enough of the kinds of voters he is targeting. I’m not so convinced of that.
I quoted this earlier today in a different thread, but it applies here as well. Sam Wang, of Princeton Election Consortium, who has spent way more time looking at way more polls and doing way more math, doesn’t see much volatility in the results this year, either in terms of comparisons with elections past or from month to month. That stability is why Wang has Clinton’s win probability in the 85-90%.
[http://election.princeton.edu/](http://election.princeton.edu/)
> [@Sam Wang](#):
>
> Just to remind everyone, variations in this year’s race are quite narrow, consistent with the last 20 years of partisan polarization. Polarization has made both the GOP and Democratic nominees unacceptable to nearly all supporters of the other party. In addition, Donald Trump is radioactive to about one-fifth of his own party. As a result, this year’s race is full of melodrama, but numerically stable. In 2016, the Princeton Election Consortium’s state poll-based aggregate has only varied between a median outcome of 310 and 350 EV for Hillary Clinton.
>
> The Meta-Margin, which is defined as the front-runner’s effective lead using Electoral College mechanisms, is a very low-noise and stable measure – as opposed to single polls, which can be all over the place. You should generally ignore single polls, especially ones that surprise you. The Meta-Margin has varied between Clinton +2.5% and Clinton +6.5%, and is now at Clinton +4.0%, close to the season average of 3.8%. If it left the 2.5-6.5% range, that would be interesting. That has not occurred yet.
“Full of melodrama but numerically stable” should be Clinton’s campaign slogan.
---
### Author:  [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5889 "2016-09-07T03:01:30Z")
> [@JohnT](#):
>
> For starters, it was my claim, not CarnalK’s. He can’t defend my thoughts on this. Just FYI.
>
> Secondly, I have no doubt that Silver’s model passes mathematical purity tests of powers beyond my poor comprehension. However, the _narrative_ on their podcasts and articles is still akin to the “horserace” narrative that drives clicks and stories, making it appear that Trump is a mere half a body behind Clinton rather than being 12 furlongs back.
>
> “Oh, no! The horse broke his leg/has no field staff!”
> “There’s still plenty of time to catch up and win, though!”
>
> If they start calling this one done, clicks and ratings will start to drop, only bouncing back to today’s level on November 9th and only in the case that Trump wins. It’s just a basic economic fact which impacts the families of Nate Silver and his staff… and therefore they can’t make that call.
He’s addressed this, too. There’s a lot more volatility this time around, due to the large number of undecideds.
Plus those numbers you mention support what they are doing. Trump has around a 1 in 3 chance of winning in his models. So the narrative that he could still win is valid.
Nationally, they have the gap by which Clinton is winning going down. Clinton is at 41.9% compared to Trump’s 38.9% (and Johnson 8.4%). Just two weeks ago it was 43.4% and 47.3%. Polls tend to have Clinton at +2 or +3.
As much as I wish it weren’t true, the gap is shrinking. That’s not a horse race. It’s just facts.
---
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5890 "2016-09-07T03:11:37Z")
And everyone, from Jon Favreau of “Keeping it 1600” to the Politico Nerdcast to Silver himself all predicted a narrowing of the polls to occur at this time… and, wow, it’s happening. :rolleyes:
They also say the polls show Clinton has an almost insurmountable lead regardless of the expected narrowing
---
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5891 "2016-09-07T03:21:29Z")
Apropos of nothing, this election has made me much better at Twitter. I received over 180 retweets and likes today on 16 tweets.
Rest assured, I will put the above on my tombstone. 😃
---
### Author:  [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5892 "2016-09-07T03:57:08Z")
> [@JohnT](#):
>
> And everyone, from Jon Favreau of “Keeping it 1600” to the Politico Nerdcast to Silver himself all predicted a narrowing of the polls to occur at this time… and, wow, it’s happening. :rolleyes:
>
> They also say the polls show Clinton has an almost insurmountable lead regardless of the expected narrowing
I don’t know about the rest, but Silver absolutely does not say Clinton has an insurmountable lead.
---
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5893 "2016-09-07T04:20:55Z")
My statement is perfectly qualified! 😛
(Didn’t we have a “wally” smilie at one time?)
---
### Author:  [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5894 "2016-09-07T04:47:07Z")
> [@Sam\_Lowry](#):
>
> Has no one else in the thread mentioned the [Millennials for Trump photo](http://www.mediaite.com/online/millennial-outreach-photo-from-trump-children-gets-instant-twitter-mockery/) with the Trump children?
“Soulless Young Corporate Drones for Trump '16!”
> [@JohnT](#):
>
> Forgot to add: my family and I are going to be up in Dallas doing Thanksgiving… that might be a good time. Let me know.
All of this arguing about polls should be over by then, at least.
---
### Author:  [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 7:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5895 "2016-09-07T07:42:26Z")
Detailed article about how Trump is skimping on every other aspect of his campaign, but spending campaign donors money lavishly on events at locations he owns, far above market price.
> **[Trump Living Large On Donors’ Dime](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-rnc-self-dealing_n_57cdcba0e4b078581f13b262)**
>
> The GOP nominee’s campaign is spending lavishly on Trump businesses instead of cheaper alternatives.
Disgusting! If anyone had any doubts about what a Trump presidency would be like this should end them. Siphoning off as much tax payer money as possible to himself and his children, driving the US more into debt. Corrupt Trump!, put him in Jail!
---
### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5896 "2016-09-07T08:24:31Z")
On a lighter note, here’s the short tale of how a Trump supporter and Sandy Hook “truther” [got trolled](http://www.rawstory.com/2016/09/sandy-hook-dad-fights-back-against-hoaxers-with-lawsuit-and-hilarious-trump-pranks/) by the father of one of the Sandy Hook victims;
> [@](#):
>
> One of those parents sent Halbig, a Donald Trump supporter, an email from the account [realivankatrump@gmail.com](mailto:realivankatrump@gmail.com) inviting him to Mar-a-Lago to present his findings for possible use in the presidential campaign.
>
> Halbig drove three hours from his Florida home to Palm Beach — where he was turned away from Trump’s resort by baffled security guards.
I guess one thing Trump says is true - he loves the poorly educated.
---
### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 9:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5897 "2016-09-07T09:27:11Z")
> [@JohnT](#):
>
> I do, quite often. Where in the Metroplex do you live? We should have lunch.
I don’t, but lived in the Ark-La-Tex for years and my mother was in Big D for a while.
How bout them Cowboys!
---
### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 9:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5898 "2016-09-07T09:30:12Z")
> [@coremelt](#):
>
> Detailed article about how Trump is skimping on every other aspect of his campaign, but spending campaign donors money lavishly on events at locations he owns, far above market price.
>
> [Trump Living Large On Donors’ Dime | HuffPost Latest News](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-rnc-self-dealing_us_57cdcba0e4b078581f13b262)
>
> Disgusting! If anyone had any doubts about what a Trump presidency would be like this should end them. Siphoning off as much tax payer money as possible to himself and his children, driving the US more into debt. Corrupt Trump!, put him in Jail!
I’ve lost faith in the news media’s ability to report on such scandals with any impact. They move from one tweet or TMZ photo upload to the next. We’re living in a new age of yellow journalism. And that’s one of the reasons why I would be very, very careful about using data and polling trend precedents from prior elections to forecast what might happen in this one. This election, simply put, has no precedent. All bets are off.
---
### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 9:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5899 "2016-09-07T09:37:47Z")
> [@MacCat](#):
>
> By cable news pounding on nonsense like emails and the Clinton Foundation
That may well be true - I happen to agree with you. But that’s all part of the election in 2016, like it or not. The media wants a horse race. The voters can decide whether to give them one. Right now, the voters quite literally can’t make up their minds. This wouldn’t be so worrisome if we had two qualified candidates, but that’s not the case. We have a highly unqualified candidate who horrifies many of us but simultaneously entertains the hell out of everyone else, and we have very qualified candidate who we just can’t seem to get attracted to. We have third party candidates thrown into the mix for people who just hate the system, and the number of those voters is growing, to the detriment of both main party candidates.
---
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 10:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5900 "2016-09-07T10:28:05Z")
> **[Trump Held Fundraiser For Pam Bondi At Mar-a-Lago After She Dropped...](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-pam-bondi-trump-university_n_57cf2c6ce4b0a48094a64854)**
>
> The Republican Party of Florida paid much less for the venue than Trump's own campaign has paid.
Huffpost looking into the Bondi bribe allegations. Probably building up some of the investigative reporting of the above link, one of the interesting things they found is a comparison between what he charged the Republican party, and what you charged his campaign, for the same venue.
---
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5901 "2016-09-07T10:43:20Z")
> **[MSNBC unskews CNN poll that showed Trump ahead](https://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-poll-cnn-msnbc-227804#ixzz4JXM92f84)**
>
> Clinton’s two-point deficit shifted to a four-point lead, 46 percent to 42 percent.
So, looking at that CNN poll, it was noticed that they _heavily_ sampled uneducated white voters, essentially making them 1/2 of the population. Renormalizing\* the results to match the 2012 electorate, it is found that Clinton is actually +4.
- is that a word? If so, did I even use it correctly?
---
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2016, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/5902 "2016-09-07T10:45:56Z")
(By the way, I’m using voice recognition more and more. So I do apologize for any minor mistakes I make in writing these posts.)
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