# Donald Trump's 2016 General Election Campaign
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [May 4, 2016, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901 "2016-05-04T02:37:34Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 301
### Author:  [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 9:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6003 "2016-09-08T09:23:42Z")
> [@adaher](#):
>
> First tell me how a 2 point lead makes for a 90% chance of winning on Clinton’s part. Did you miss all the liberal Dopers who think Silver is wrong this year?
That’s not unskewing – Sam Wang has a good track record, and some liberals like him this year because his predictions are better for the Democrats. I think that might be a bit of wishful thinking, since I think Silver’s track record is even better, but wishful thinking and picking the more favorable (but still one with a good record) aggregator is not nearly the same as unskewing.
---
### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 9:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6004 "2016-09-08T09:25:59Z")
> [@adaher](#):
>
> First tell me how a 2 point lead makes for a 90% chance of winning on Clinton’s part.
That’s it? Have you ever even \*heard \*of the Electoral College?
---
### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 9:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6005 "2016-09-08T09:28:18Z")
nm - dup
---
### Author:  [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 9:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6006 "2016-09-08T09:51:35Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> That’s it? Have you ever even \*heard \*of the Electoral College?
That’s also been addressed. Clinton does not win the Electoral College if Trump wins the popoular vote except in very rare scenarios.
---
### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 9:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6007 "2016-09-08T09:54:08Z")
Except Trump isn’t winning the popular vote in the poll you describe as “invalid”.
You can do better than this.
---
### Author:  [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 10:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6008 "2016-09-08T10:11:20Z")
He’s down by 2-3 with 60 days to go. And Clinton still hasn’t stopped falling. We don’t know if this is where the race settles or not. Tomorrow Trump could be down 1-2.
---
### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 10:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6009 "2016-09-08T10:13:31Z")
Wasn’t Clinton in “free fall” months ago? 🙂
About your “invalid methodology” claim, will it be put up or shut up for you? I’ll bet on Neither.
---
### Author:  [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 10:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6010 "2016-09-08T10:31:49Z")
It’s not a claim, it’s a fact, and it’s been explained multiple times, in very simple terms that anyone can understand.
To reiterate, Politifact does not rate every statement. They rate the ones they find interesting. They also do not assign weighting to various statements. Not all lies are created equal, and not all false statements are lies. I’d call it shoddy methodology, except that reasonable people can be fooled by shoddy methodology. Tallying up Politifact ratings to determine who is more or less honest doesn’t even rise to that level, since no reasonable person can take such an attempt to prove Clinton’s “honesty” seriously. Supposedly. Clinton is more honest than Bernie Sanders. No, Clinton just cites more facts(that her staff feeds her) in her speeches, which runs up her score.
---
### Author:  [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 10:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6011 "2016-09-08T10:34:48Z")
> [@adaher](#):
>
> It’s not a claim, it’s a fact, and it’s been explained multiple times, in very simple terms that anyone can understand.
>
> To reiterate, Politifact does not rate every statement. They rate the ones they find interesting. They also do not assign weighting to various statements. Not all lies are created equal, and not all false statements are lies. I’d call it shoddy methodology, except that reasonable people can be fooled by shoddy methodology. Tallying up Politifact ratings to determine who is more or less honest doesn’t even rise to that level, since no reasonable person can take such an attempt to prove Clinton’s “honesty” seriously. Supposedly. Clinton is more honest than Bernie Sanders. No, Clinton just cites more facts(that her staff feeds her) in her speeches, which runs up her score.
Accurately citing facts is indeed part of honesty. People who say false things without checking if they are true are being dishonest, even if they believe it to be so.
---
### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 10:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6012 "2016-09-08T10:40:04Z")
> [@adaher](#):
>
> It’s not a claim, it’s a fact, and it’s been explained multiple times, in very simple terms that anyone can understand.
Your claim was that a poll that didn’t tell you what you want to hear exhibits “invalid methodology”, not about Politifact.
Keep your own bullshit straight, please. It shouldn’t be up to the rest of us.
:rolleyes:
---
### Author:  [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 10:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6013 "2016-09-08T10:44:35Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#):
>
> Accurately citing facts is indeed part of honesty. People who say false things without checking if they are true are being dishonest, even if they believe it to be so.
Then all politicians are dirty liars, since even the best of them say true things only half the time.
Only 50% of the statements Clinton has made have been True or Mostly True, despite an extensive fact checking staff. One can only conclude that the 123 statements that are Half true-Pants on Fire are intentional deception, whereas politicians and non-political figures without large staffs just don’t always know what they are talking about.
And to bring up the non-political people that Politifact rates, they tend to perform pretty poorly compared to professional politicians. One could conclude that politicians are therefore more honest than average folks. After all, almost everyone you speak to about politics in your personal life probably says a lot of wrong things. That makes professional politicians more honest than them I guess.
---
### Author:  [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6014 "2016-09-08T10:45:37Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> Your claim was that a poll that didn’t tell you what you want to hear exhibits “invalid methodology”, not about Politifact.
>
> Keep your own bullshit straight, please. It shouldn’t be up to the rest of us.
>
> :rolleyes:
Which poll was that? I said the Robert Mann Politifact article used invalid methodology. I wasn’t contesting any poll results.
---
### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6015 "2016-09-08T10:58:27Z")
And you were just about to explain how it’s invalid, weren’t you?
Come on now.
---
### Author:  [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6016 "2016-09-08T11:06:10Z")
All politicians are liars? Is this supposed to be news?
Keep pretending accuracy doesn’t matter, or politifact doesn’t measure anything, but I’m not convinced. Fact checking matters.
---
### Author:  [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 11:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6017 "2016-09-08T11:29:58Z")
Politifact is a wonderful site. The purpose of Politifact is to fact check single statements, not to draw broad conclusions about the honesty or accuracy of any particular candidate.
Clinton probably is more honest than Trump. She’s not more honest than Bernie Sanders, or Joe Biden, or John Kasich, or even Ted Cruz.
---
### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6018 "2016-09-08T11:31:49Z")
> [@elucidator](#):
>
> As a mathtard, I don’t delve much into statistical models, took me a week to grasp what that Greek guy was saying about triangles. A right triangle, not a wrong one. Its kinda fuzzy.
>
> So maybe that’s just a prejudice, a kind of sour grapes, thinking that something I can’t grasp isn’t all that important.
>
> But last week in Michigan, Hillary 45%, Trump 42%, and this week its reversed! the Trump march to victory has begun! Maybe. (Just an example, the actual numbers in Michigan, I could look up, but won’t bother…)
>
> But then there’s stuff that shows that Hillary might have a shot in Texas! Now, that is a clap of thunder! We all pretty much know that, down the road, Texas will get all blueish. (“Are you Blueish? You don’t _look_ Blueish!”). But five years, ten, maybe… Now, granted, just because more people in Texas \*want \*to vote for Hillary is no reason to think they will _get_ to. Because, well, Texas. And Republicans.
>
> If Hillary is competitive in fucking Texas and Mississippi!..then the trajectory of the shit is about to intersect of locus of the fan. Sure, precisely why Trump may win Texas by 2%, an interesting question. A more interesting question is why its even in doubt!
>
> And we live in interesting times…
The large number of independent voters this year probably explains a lot of it. Both parties have seen a decline in support over the past 20 years. There was actually a surge in partisan support in 2013 before a massive drop the following year. The republican party in particular has lost voters to independents, which tells me that many of these undecideds probably have centrist and perhaps right-center leanings. They probably have serious issues with both candidates and all of these talk of attitudes being baked into the cake is inaccurate. This election will be about who is less repugnant to mostly white centrist middle American voters. At the same time, there is the possibility that in pursuing white voters in middle American states like Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, he could simultaneously repel conservatives and motivate even more Latinos, African Americans, and Asians to go to the polls to vote against him. In the end, I think Texas and Arizona stay red, but it could be an uncharacteristically and uncomfortably close race in both states.
---
### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6019 "2016-09-08T11:33:19Z")
> [@adaher](#):
>
> Politifact is a wonderful site. The purpose of Politifact is to fact check single statements, not to draw broad conclusions about the honesty or accuracy of any particular candidate.
>
> Clinton probably is more honest than Trump. She’s not more honest than Bernie Sanders, or Joe Biden, or John Kasich, or even Ted Cruz.
I was reading until you said Cruz.
---
### Author:  [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6020 "2016-09-08T11:34:59Z")
The map overall looks a little different from normal due to the different ideological characteristics of Trump. Trump is close in New Jersey and Rhode Island, although it’s only one poll.
---
### Author:  [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 11:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6021 "2016-09-08T11:35:52Z")
> [@adaher](#):
>
> Politifact is a wonderful site. The purpose of Politifact is to fact check single statements, not to draw broad conclusions about the honesty or accuracy of any particular candidate.
It’s entirely reasonable to draw at least some broad conclusions about honesty and accuracy of a candidate when most of what they say is bullshit.
> [@](#):
>
> Clinton probably is more honest than Trump. She’s not more honest than Bernie Sanders, or Joe Biden, or John Kasich, or even Ted Cruz.
Pure opinion. My opinion is quite different – I’d say she’s as honest as Bernie and Joe, and more honest than Kasich and Cruz. Unlike your opinion, my opinion actually is based on some facts, including the measurements of sites like Politifact.
---
### Author:  [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2016, 11:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6022 "2016-09-08T11:36:09Z")
> [@asahi](#):
>
> I was reading until you said Cruz.
Has Cruz lied repeatedly to protect himself from scandal?
[Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=300)
[Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=302)