# Donald Trump's 2016 General Election Campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 4, 2016, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901 "2016-05-04T02:37:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 322
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6423 "2016-09-14T03:43:20Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > It can’t be, and wasn’t. I don’t know where you got this piece of erroneous information, but the actual Obama margin of victory was more than 5 times bigger than his margin in the final poll average. > > [2012 General Election: Romney vs. Obama | RealClearPolling](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html) Sure, if you go by RCP’s highly silly and simplistic numbers, which were absurd. 538 figured Obama had a lead of three points, based on far superior analysis. Sam Wang, also vastly superior, figured 2.5 percent. RCP did not do a very good job in 2012. In 2008 - when Obama’s GOTV effort was EXTREMELY strong - he did outperform the 538 projection by a point, so I did misremember that. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6424 "2016-09-14T03:45:19Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > It can’t be, and wasn’t. I don’t know where you got this piece of erroneous information, but the actual Obama margin of victory was more than 5 times bigger than his margin in the final poll average. > > [2012 General Election: Romney vs. Obama | RealClearPolling](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html) Sure, if you go by RCP’s highly silly and simplistic numbers, which were absurd. They place perfect confidence in Rasmussen, a pollster that incorrectly called six of nine swing states. 538 figured Obama had a lead of three points, based on far superior analysis. Sam Wang, also vastly superior, figured 2.5 percent. RCP did not do a very good job in 2012. In 2008 - when Obama’s GOTV effort was EXTREMELY strong - he did outperform the 538 projection by a point, so I did misremember that. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6425 "2016-09-14T03:54:43Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > This is the 34th thing that I would think would sink his campaign (but won’t). Hmm. I’d say he’s got to be in the high 80s by now. > [@Maastricht](#): > > [AVAAZ has an awesome campaign here.](https://avaaz.org/en/globalvote_loc/) They want to mobilize the 8 million US voters currently residing outside the US, to vote against Trump and to make a difference that way… Nice! Hope it really takes hold. > [@elucidator](#): > > Decimal points are for losers. Everyone knows Making America Great Again means whole numbers only. > [@skdo23](#): > > Looks like the [NY Ag’s office has jumped on the bandwagon](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2016/09/13/democrats-ask-for-investigation-of-trump-foundation-donation/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumpfoundation-0650pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.1842ddf092cb). In addition, [CNN.com’s lead](http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/13/politics/trump-small-business-owners/index.html) story right now profiles (relatively) small contractors in Atlantic City that were screwed over by Trump. Looks like the investigative journalists are at the gate… Long overdue, but the Trumpanistas will pay no attention. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6426 "2016-09-14T04:03:32Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Long overdue, but the Trumpanistas will pay no attention. Anything that brings him attention and/or upsets The Enemy is to the good, as far as they are concerned. There is no shame or regret to be had or found. ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6427 "2016-09-14T04:11:37Z")
> [@GulfTiger](#): > > Smacks of desperate partisan politics. Where were you when the AP was not just investigating but outright lying about the clinton foundation? ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6428 "2016-09-14T04:27:14Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Sure, if you go by RCP’s highly silly and simplistic numbers, which were absurd. > > 538 figured Obama had a lead of three points, based on far superior analysis. Nate Silver is the reason I knew you were wrong. On the 538 podcast, he has repeatedly stated that Obama outperformed his polls in 2012. The [final 538 prediction](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/nov-5-late-poll-gains-for-obama-leave-romney-with-longer-odds/?_r=0) says: > [@](#): > > The national polls now range from showing a 1-point lead for Mr. Romney to slightly more than a 4-point advantage for Mr. Obama. The FiveThirtyEight forecast of the national popular vote is within this range, projecting Mr. Obama’s most likely margin of victory to be two or three percentage points, approximating the margin that George W. Bush achieved in defeating John Kerry in 2004. Nor does [Sam Wang](http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/06/presidential-prediction-2012-final/) help your case: > [@](#): > > TWO-CANDIDATE POPULAR VOTE SHARE: Obama 51.1%, Romney 48.9%. That would be a margin of victory of 2.2 points. Obama’s actual margin of victory, of course, was nearly double that: 3.9 points. You’re forgetting or ignoring the first rule of holes: stop digging. You made the following bold assertion: > [@](#): > > In 2012, when Obama was supposed to have a godo ground game and Romney’s famed “Orca” ground game nerve center was an infamous debacle, Obama actually underperformed at the polls by a little bit. If GOTV is so important how can that be? And this assertion was flat wrong. Obama overperformed rather than underperformed his polls. Therefore your whole thesis is blown to smithereens. Just accept it and move on. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6429 "2016-09-14T06:20:49Z")
It’s been awhile since this story broke, but did we cover [the time Trump had a botched surgery to remove a bald spot and then raped Ivana because of it](http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/07/27/ex-wife-donald-trump-made-feel-violated-during-sex.html?via=desktop&source=twitter)? > [@](#): > > After a painful scalp reduction surgery to remove a bald spot, Donald Trump confronted his then-wife, who had previously used the same plastic surgeon. > > “Your fucking doctor has ruined me!” Trump cried. > > What followed was a “violent assault,” according to Lost Tycoon. Donald held back Ivana’s arms and began to pull out fistfuls of hair from her scalp, as if to mirror the pain he felt from his own operation. He tore off her clothes and unzipped his pants. > > “Then he jams his penis inside her for the first time in more than sixteen months. Ivana is terrified… It is a violent assault,” Hurt writes. “According to versions she repeats to some of her closest confidantes, ‘he raped me.’” > > Following the incident, Ivana ran upstairs, hid behind a locked door, and remained there “crying for the rest of night.” When she returned to the master bedroom in the morning, he was there. > > “As she looks in horror at the ripped-out hair scattered all over the bed, he glares at her and asks with menacing casualness: ‘Does it hurt?’” Hurt writes. ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 10:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6430 "2016-09-14T10:59:01Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Long overdue, but the Trumpanistas will pay no attention. Do they need to pay attention? A barrage of attacks of every direction will likely put him back in self destruct mode, more so, I would think, if his ills can be spun as a politically motivated attack by the Dems and the LSM. As the polls from his early August meltdown show, he can easily alienate independent voters, and probably many of his less deplorable supporters if this happens, especially since he will begin debating HRC in two weeks. ---
**Author:** ![soonerblue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/soonerblue/32/3302_2.png) [@soonerblue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/soonerblue)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 11:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6431 "2016-09-14T11:07:29Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Be a whole lot better if rich folks had more money. Then they could trickle down on us more effectively! Yep, I always thought GOP trickle down was warm and yellow. ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 11:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6432 "2016-09-14T11:12:11Z")
**Newsweek Goes Nuclear** [In The Company of Trump](http://www.newsweek.com/2016/09/23/donald-trump-foreign-business-deals-national-security-498081.html) - Trump’s global deals would make it impossible for him to conduct foreign policy in many countries without padding or depleting his wallet. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 11:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6433 "2016-09-14T11:13:58Z")
On Newsweek this morning: “How the Trump Organization’s Foreign Business Ties Could Upend U.S. National Security” > **[The Trump Organization's Secretive Global Financial Web](https://www.newsweek.com/2016/09/23/donald-trump-foreign-business-deals-national-security-498081.html)** > > Would Donald Trump's decisions as president be based on what is best for America, or on what would keep the cash flowing to him and his family? I haven’t had a chance to read it yet. ETA: Ninja’ed by **skdo23** ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 11:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6434 "2016-09-14T11:41:47Z")
“A close examination by Newsweek of the Trump Organization, including confidential interviews with business executives and some of its international partners, reveals an enterprise with deep ties to global financiers, foreign politicians and even criminals, although there is no evidence the Trump Organization has engaged in any illegal activities. It also reveals a web of contractual entanglements that could not be just canceled. If Trump moves into the White House and his family continues to receive any benefit from the company, during or even after his presidency, almost every foreign policy decision he makes will raise serious conflicts of interest and ethical quagmires.” ---
**Author:** ![Catamount](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/catamount/32/2840_2.png) [@Catamount](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Catamount)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6435 "2016-09-14T11:53:45Z")
If I’m counting correctly, there were [seven arrests for fighting](http://www.citizen-times.com/story/news/local/2016/09/13/69-year-old-woman-punched-asheville-trump-rally/90301468/)at Monday’s Trump rally in Asheville. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6436 "2016-09-14T12:02:30Z")
[http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-09-14/ohio-poll](http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-09-14/ohio-poll) With eyes wide open, a culture that binges on fast food, reality TV, fantasy football, and social media memes is getting dangerously close to ushering a nightmarish new chapter in our history while the rest of us watch in disbelief and horror. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6437 "2016-09-14T12:16:48Z")
I wish I could believe that the Newsweek article would change people’s minds. My fear is that the true believers won’t care. ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6438 "2016-09-14T12:21:07Z")
> [@davidm](#): > > I wish I could believe that the Newsweek article would change people’s minds. My fear is that the true believers won’t care. Maybe not, but undecided voters in OH, PA, NC & FL probably will. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6439 "2016-09-14T12:34:54Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > It’s been awhile since this story broke, but did we cover [the time Trump had a botched surgery to remove a bald spot and then raped Ivana because of it](http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/07/27/ex-wife-donald-trump-made-feel-violated-during-sex.html?via=desktop&source=twitter)? > > > [@](#): > > > > After a painful scalp reduction surgery to remove a bald spot, Donald Trump confronted his then-wife, who had previously used the same plastic surgeon. > > > > “Your fucking doctor has ruined me!” Trump cried. > > > > What followed was a “violent assault,” according to Lost Tycoon. Donald held back Ivana’s arms and began to pull out fistfuls of hair from her scalp, as if to mirror the pain he felt from his own operation. He tore off her clothes and unzipped his pants. > > > > “Then he jams his penis inside her for the first time in more than sixteen months. Ivana is terrified… It is a violent assault,” Hurt writes. “According to versions she repeats to some of her closest confidantes, ‘he raped me.’” > > > > Following the incident, Ivana ran upstairs, hid behind a locked door, and remained there “crying for the rest of night.” When she returned to the master bedroom in the morning, he was there. > > > > “As she looks in horror at the ripped-out hair scattered all over the bed, he glares at her and asks with menacing casualness: ‘Does it hurt?’” Hurt writes. Does this sound like a man fit for the Presidency? Are the many _many_ disgusting facts about Trump getting proper media attention? > [@asahi](#): > > **Trump now up by 5 in OH** > > With eyes wide open, a culture that binges on fast food, reality TV, fantasy football, and social media memes is getting dangerously close to ushering a nightmarish new chapter in our history while the rest of us watch in disbelief and horror. Even if we’re lucky and Hillary finally wins 45% to 40%, this election will never be forgotten. America’s soul was put on display and found wanting. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6440 "2016-09-14T12:47:57Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > And this assertion was flat wrong. Obama overperformed rather than underperformed his polls. Therefore your whole thesis is blown to smithereens. Just accept it and move on. No, you’re right; I reversed the two numbers in my head. My error. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6441 "2016-09-14T13:09:05Z")
> [@Catamount](#): > > If I’m counting correctly, there were [seven arrests for fighting](http://www.citizen-times.com/story/news/local/2016/09/13/69-year-old-woman-punched-asheville-trump-rally/90301468/)at Monday’s Trump rally in Asheville. Unless you have some other cite, several of those arrests were for trespassing and possession, not “fighting” ---
**Author:** ![GulfTiger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e79b87/32.png) [@GulfTiger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GulfTiger)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2016, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6442 "2016-09-14T13:13:31Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > “A close examination by Newsweek of the Trump Organization, including confidential interviews with business executives and some of its international partners, reveals an enterprise with deep ties to global financiers, foreign politicians and even criminals, although there is no evidence the Trump Organization has engaged in any illegal activities. It also reveals a web of contractual entanglements that could not be just canceled. If Trump moves into the White House and his family continues to receive any benefit from the company, during or even after his presidency, almost every foreign policy decision he makes will raise serious conflicts of interest and ethical quagmires.” Fixed it for you. > [@](#): > > “A close examination by Newsweek of the Clinton Foundation, including confidential interviews with business executives and some of its international partners, reveals an enterprise with deep ties to global financiers, foreign politicians and even criminals, although there is no evidence the Clinton Foundation has engaged in any illegal activities. It also reveals a web of contractual entanglements that could not be just canceled. If Clinton moves into the White House and her family continues to receive any benefit from the foundation, during or even after her presidency, almost every foreign policy decision she makes will raise serious conflicts of interest and ethical quagmires.” See how that works? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=321) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=323)