# Donald Trump's 2016 General Election Campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 4, 2016, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901 "2016-05-04T02:37:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 346
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2016, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6903 "2016-09-20T21:10:17Z")
I see her at the baccarat table, she casually places an unfiltered cigarette (cusom blended by her tobacconist) between her lips, snaps it lit with a tastefully expensive lighter and says: “Bondi. Pam Bondi”. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2016, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6904 "2016-09-20T22:48:38Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > The real issue with the metaphor is that it vastly overstates the percentage of refugees who pose any threat. Three out of a “bowlful” (a hundred or so), or three out of a deck of playing cards, is a very real threat, but it’s more like [three out of a swimming pool filled with candy](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/19/donald-trump-jr-inadvertantly-encourages-america-to-scoop-up-refugees-by-the-handful/). Also, there is an actual choice to be made here - it’s not simply a one-way danger. The choice should be: You can EITHER: eat some skittles from the Olympic swimming pool full of skittles - 3.6 BILLION of them. One of these is poisoned. OR: Shoot these three actual refugee children in the head. Right now. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2016, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6905 "2016-09-20T23:06:07Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > You can EITHER: eat some skittles from the Olympic swimming pool full of skittles - 3.6 BILLION of them. One of these is poisoned. I think your statistics are off too. It’s been a tad more frequent than 1/3,600,000,000. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2016, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6906 "2016-09-20T23:15:42Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I think your statistics are off too. It’s been a tad more frequent than 1/3,600,000,000. I did not just pull this figure out of my ass. Complain to the authors of[this report](http://www.npr.org/2016/09/20/494700850/taste-the-outrage-donald-trump-jr-s-tweet-compares-refugees-to-skittles) > [@](#): > > And, as the Washington Post pointed out, the bowl of Skittles would have to be awfully large for Trump’s analogy to be accurate: The odds of being killed by a refugee in a terrorist attack are about 1 in more than 3.6 billion, according to a recent Cato Institute study. That’s the Cato Institute, the hotbed of radical lefties and commies. (sarcasm off) ---
**Author:** ![Junior\_Spaceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/eb8c5e/32.png) [@Junior\_Spaceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Junior_Spaceman)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2016, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6907 "2016-09-20T23:25:23Z")
Everybody seems to have latched on to the ‘Skittles’ part of the meme, and ignored the most historically resonant part, being the ‘poison’, [which has some pretty ugly precedents](http://www.nizkor.org/hweb/people/m/mills-mary/mills-00.html): > [@](#): > > Der Giftpilz (The Poisonous Mushroom) appeared in Germany in 1938 and leaves little question regarding the intended Nazi solution to the “Jewish problem.” The book begins innocently enough by describing a favorite German pastime, picking wild mushrooms in the woods. A young boy, Franz, accompanies his mother on a walk in a beautiful, wooded area and helps her gather mushrooms. After carefully describing and showing Franz several varieties of both edible and poisonous mushrooms, his mother compares the good mushrooms to good people and the harmful mushrooms to bad people. The most dangerous people are, of course, the Jews. > > ``` > Franz proudly announces that he has learned in school that the Jews are bad people. His mother continues her comparison of Jews to mushrooms by emphasizing that, just as poisonous mushrooms are difficult to distinguish from edible ones, it is difficult to differentiate Jews from Non-Jews because Jews can assume many forms. Franz's mother repeatedly alludes to the terrible destructive force of the Jews. One Jew can destroy an entire people because the Jew is the Devil in human form. The Jew poses a deadly threat not only to the survival of the German people but to the survival of the world! It is Germany's obligation to warn the rest of the world about this terrible toadstool and thereby save humanity from destruction. Thus begins one of the most insidious storybooks ever composed for children. > > ``` Stating that a group of people are carriers of a certain number among them who are ‘poisoned’, and the only way to stop the poison is to exclude the whole group, is textbook fascism. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2016, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6908 "2016-09-20T23:40:11Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > I did not just pull this figure out of my ass. I know you didn’t > [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Complain to the authors of[this report](http://www.npr.org/2016/09/20/494700850/taste-the-outrage-donald-trump-jr-s-tweet-compares-refugees-to-skittles) I’m bringing it up with you because you cited it. If the Skittles in our analogy our refugees, then the author, and by extension you, are measuring the wrong thing by calculating “the odds of being killed by a refugee in a terrorist attack”. How many Skittles / refugees are poisonous / terrorists would give us the correct odds. ---
**Author:** ![MacCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maccat/32/216_2.png) [@MacCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MacCat)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2016, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6909 "2016-09-20T23:44:07Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > This election is beyond surreal. First we had Taco-gate, now we have skittle-gate ! > > Hey your neo-nazi alt right white supremacist ideology is making me hungry! Can we please have pizza-gate next? [You missed it?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asv7EB1btok) ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6910 "2016-09-21T00:01:06Z")
[So today Mr. Trump said: > [@Donald Trump](#): > > We’re going to rebuild our inner cities because our African American communities are absolutely in the worst shape that they’ve ever been in before, ever, ever, ever. ]([http://elections.ap.org/content/latest-fl-republican-spend-millions-backing-clinton](http://elections.ap.org/content/latest-fl-republican-spend-millions-backing-clinton))Wow! :eek: Worse than when they were slaves? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6911 "2016-09-21T00:07:20Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I know you didn’t > > I’m bringing it up with you because you cited it. If the Skittles in our analogy our refugees, then the author, and by extension you, are measuring the wrong thing by calculating “the odds of being killed by a refugee in a terrorist attack”. How many Skittles / refugees are poisonous / terrorists would give us the correct odds. No, it isn’t. The question is how dangerous it is to allow in refugees. You have to deal with the actual danger. Asking how many are terrorists is an indirect measure, since, if they make it through, the only sign they are a terrorist is that they actually kill people. Measuring actual kills is the more direct measure. ---
**Author:** ![MacCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maccat/32/216_2.png) [@MacCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MacCat)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6912 "2016-09-21T00:10:55Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > [So today Mr. Trump said:](http://elections.ap.org/content/latest-fl-republican-spend-millions-backing-clinton)Wow! :eek: Worse than when they were slaves? :dubious: Well yeah… [www.salon.com/](http://www.salon.com/2012/10/12/ten_conservatives_who_have_praised_slavery/) ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6913 "2016-09-21T00:37:22Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > … the only sign they are a terrorist is that they actually kill people. I’m SO glad you don’t run the FBI. ---
**Author:** ![GulfTiger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e79b87/32.png) [@GulfTiger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GulfTiger)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6914 "2016-09-21T00:39:23Z")
Proof that Donald Trump is in tune with the universe. [The Golden Ratio](http://lolworthy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/trump-golden-ratio-fibonacci.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Blue\_Blistering\_Barnacle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blue_blistering_barnacle/32/3386_2.png) [@Blue\_Blistering\_Barnacle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blue_Blistering_Barnacle)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6915 "2016-09-21T00:54:28Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I think your statistics are off too. It’s been a tad more frequent than 1/3,600,000,000. > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I know you didn’t > > I’m bringing it up with you because you cited it. If the Skittles in our analogy our refugees, then the author, and by extension you, are measuring the wrong thing by calculating “the odds of being killed by a refugee in a terrorist attack”. How many Skittles / refugees are poisonous / terrorists would give us the correct odds. > [@BigT](#): > > No, it isn’t. The question is how dangerous it is to allow in refugees. You have to deal with the actual danger. Asking how many are terrorists is an indirect measure, since, if they make it through, the only sign they are a terrorist is that they actually kill people. > > Measuring actual kills is the more direct measure. I disagree with almost everything HD has said about DJT and HRC, BUT… I think he has the right of it here. I mean how many people were killed in the Florida nightclub alone. More than 100. We don’t have 360,000,000,000 people in this country (or even in this world). Those stats sound fishy. The way the original analogy was expressed, it sounds like he’s talking about the “bad apples” of the bunch (is that okay to say?), which sounds like it’s meant to be the terrorist-to-refugee ratio. Moving on, it is tactless to compare people to Skittles in the way that was done. Maybe in an effort to explain statistics, with a full discussion… Lastly, Insurance folks say: > [@](#): > > •The chances of being killed in a terrorist attack are about 1 in 20 million. A person is as likely to be killed by his or her own furniture, and more likely to die in a car accident, drown in a bathtub, or in a building fire than from a terrorist attack. Compare that with these much more likely deadly scenarios: > [@](#): > > •The chances a person will be killed by an asteroid are 1 in 200,000, which is much higher than the odds of being killed by hail, which is 1 in 734,400,000. > [@](#): > > •The odds of dying in a severe storm are 1 in 68,388. A person is more likely to die slipping in his or her bathtub, which occurs at a rate of 1 in 11,469. > [@](#): > > •A person’s chances of dying in an elevator are 1 in 10,440,000. Due to successful elevator brake systems, an elevator has plunged only once—in the Empire State Building in 1945. > [@](#): > > •The lifetime probability of dying in a car accident is 1 in 100, which is 200 times higher than the probability of dying in a plane crash. [http://www.lifeinsurancequotes.org/additional-resources/deadly-statistics/](http://www.lifeinsurancequotes.org/additional-resources/deadly-statistics/) Apparently you are twice as likely to die by elevator plunge than be killed by a terrorist; it is 100x more likely you’ll be killed by an asteroid; and you are 200,000x more likely to die by car. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6916 "2016-09-21T01:20:06Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I know you didn’t > > I’m bringing it up with you because you cited it. If the Skittles in our analogy our refugees, then the author, and by extension you, are measuring the wrong thing by calculating “the odds of being killed by a refugee in a terrorist attack”. How many Skittles / refugees are poisonous / terrorists would give us the correct odds. So you’re now afraid of “refugee terrorists” who actually don’t kill anyone? What, do they just sit around and think bad thoughts? ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6917 "2016-09-21T01:21:37Z")
The Pulse attacker was an American, not a refugee. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6918 "2016-09-21T01:23:58Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > The Pulse attacker was an American, not a refugee. America’s got the best terrorists. Other countries’ terrorists are total losers. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6919 "2016-09-21T01:33:14Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > [So today Mr. Trump said:](http://elections.ap.org/content/latest-fl-republican-spend-millions-backing-clinton)Wow! :eek: Worse than when they were slaves? :dubious: And he gave his speech in the town of Kenansville N.C., a town itself is named after a man whose family owned a slave plantation. Priceless. ---
**Author:** ![Blue\_Blistering\_Barnacle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blue_blistering_barnacle/32/3386_2.png) [@Blue\_Blistering\_Barnacle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blue_Blistering_Barnacle)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6920 "2016-09-21T01:35:00Z")
Responding to DigitalC’s point Good point. Same is true for the recent New York bombing (unless, sort of, he is later shown to have been a refugee). Still, the 1:3.6 billion stat sounds dodgy- are there 3.6 billion refugees? Also, pointing out the potential for terrorism among those already here plays into some of DJT’s more dangerous positions. You are aware he’d like to ship out the whole lot of 'em (citizens or not) and let God/Allah sort them out, aren’t you?\* \*That is I think he would, from what he’s said in the past, but who can say. With him, you can take him at his word (if you’re gullible) or read the tea leaves. I’m convinced that few of his backers believe most of what he says- They believe the parts they like and figure the rest is just for show or to fool “the rest of them”. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6921 "2016-09-21T02:27:10Z")
[http://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa798\_1\_1.pdf](http://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa798_1_1.pdf) is the actual source of these numbers. On page 8, you’ll notice Table 2, which shows that we get a terrorist refugee for every 162,625 non-terrorist refugees we let into the country. They are, actually, the most-terroristy category of immigrants studied, but because we only let ~3 million of them into the country, as opposed to 657 million tourists and 24 million students, their “kill count” is lower. Looking at these numbers, bringing in more refugees seems like an absolutely stupid idea. We’d be better off with more K-1 visa holders, and one of those recently helped murder 14 people in San Bernardino. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/6922 "2016-09-21T02:34:18Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > You don’t get it. It dehumanizes refugees and makes them as disposable as tainted candy or tainted cards (what is the card analogy again?). Throw them all out is not a compassionate act towards defenseless victims of war. > [@running\_coach](#): > > The problem is it exaggerates to a ridiculous degree the actual risk. **running coach** and **Fear Itself** precisely describe what is wrong with the analogy. It does two things. [ol] [li]It trivializes the harm done by “throwing them out”. Throwing out skittles does not somehow harm the “innocent” non-poisoned skittles, but rejecting war refugees does harm real human innocents.[/li][li]It exaggerates any perceived benefit in “throwing them out”. There is a real benefit in throwing out the skittles because the potential harm in keeping them is very real and very likely to be eliminated by their disposal. “Throwing out” refugees, on the other hand, is attempting to eliminate a theoretical danger which statistically is essentially just as likely to exist in society with or without this one particular group of people.[/li] It’s a selfish feel good solution which causes great harm to innocents while achieving no meaningful gain in safety for society at large. In fact it could be argued that showing compassion towards refugees might reduce the danger by changing the minds of some people. [/ol] [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=345) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901.md?page=347)