# Donald Trump's 2016 General Election Campaign

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [May 4, 2016, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901 "2016-05-04T02:37:34Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 2546

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\
**Post date:** [July 13, 2016, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901/2546 "2016-07-13T22:56:29Z")

</div>

> [@RickJay](#):
>
> Is 31.7 lower than 30 now? Must be the new math.
> 
> **Today’s Nowcast: Clinton 68.3, Trump 31.7.**
> 
> [2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now)
> 
> Those numbers I wrote above are as posted on the 538 Nowcast on July 13, 2016, the day you wrote the post to which I replied. Buck Godot, please note this. That’s the prediction if the election were held now. It is not the prediction assuming uncertainty between now and November. I don’t know how you can’t find the Nowcast, it’s right there with the polls and polls-plus options.

Mea culpa, I didn’t look at the Nowcast today (or any day). When he announced that the model was live, he said the Nowcast showed a much lower chance for Drumpf, but he also said that it was designed to be very sensitive to new information. So the new Quinnipiac numbers must have shifted it quite a bit.

None of this, of course, negates any of the points I made about how you can’t just treat this like a regular horserace.

---

_[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trumps-2016-general-election-campaign/753901)._