# Don't Make Plans For 4/13/29 **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [December 27, 2004, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836 "2004-12-27T22:52:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2004, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/1 "2004-12-27T22:52:15Z")
[There’s a 1 in 40 chance that we could get wiped out by an asteroid on that date.](http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_update_041227.html) > [@](#): > > Last Thursday, Dec. 23, scientists announced that a space rock named 2004 MN4 had about a 1-in-300 chance of striking Earth on April 13, 2029. On Friday, the risk was upgraded as more observations rolled in. The asteroid was given an unprecedented risk rating of 4 on the Torino Scale, which means it warrants careful monitoring. The odds at various times were put at 1-in-63 and 1-in-45. > > As of Monday, the chances of an impact on April 13, 2029 stood at about 1-in-40, or 2.6 percent. > > Experts point out that means a 97.4 percent chance the giant boulder will miss, and they stress that the odds are likely to go down to zero, eventually, when more detailed observations of its path are made. Significant revision – if it comes – probably won’t happen soon. Not that I’m panicking, but I’m curious as to how a 1 in 40 chance works out to a 97.4% probability that it’ll miss us. ---
**Author:** ![badmana](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@badmana](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/badmana)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2004, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/2 "2004-12-27T22:55:35Z")
Ahh, another reason not to have kids! 😃 “But honey, do we really want our kids to be raised in a post apocalyptic world ala Fallout?” ---
**Author:** ![Chimpy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a9adbd/32.png) [@Chimpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimpy)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2004, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/3 "2004-12-27T22:55:45Z")
> [@Tuckerfan](#): > > [There’s a 1 in 40 chance that we could get wiped out by an asteroid on that date.](http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_update_041227.html)Not that I’m panicking, but I’m curious as to how a 1 in 40 chance works out to a 97.4% probability that it’ll miss us. [Doing the maths] 40_2.5= 100 1_2.5= 2.5 Therefore 2.5 percent of a hit, and a 97.5 chance of a hit… so who messed up? Me or them, or is there a third possibility that I’ve not factored in? ---
**Author:** ![Cunctator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/43a26b/32.png) [@Cunctator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cunctator)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2004, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/4 "2004-12-27T23:01:18Z")
I can’t see where the 97.4% comes from either. Anyway, if it’s going to hit in 2029, at least I’ll still be able to catch the total solar eclipse in Sydney in 2028. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2004, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/5 "2004-12-27T23:01:42Z")
I’m sure that by 2029 we’ll have a great 2020s Style Death Ray perfected. ---
**Author:** ![Colophon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f05b48/32.png) [@Colophon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colophon)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2004, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/6 "2004-12-27T23:10:09Z")
I assume the 2.6% was the “accurate” figure, and this was rounded to 1 in 40, as opposed to 1 in 38.46, for the media… ---
**Author:** ![DadWagonDriver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/edb3f5/32.png) [@DadWagonDriver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DadWagonDriver)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2004, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/7 "2004-12-27T23:48:43Z")
What’s the line in Vegas? ---
**Author:** ![Tripler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripler/32/21807_2.png) [@Tripler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tripler)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/8 "2004-12-28T00:01:11Z")
Well, I’ll be 52 at that point. Not exactly _too_ old to go out with a ‘bang’, but what the hell . . . And to think, it’ll hit just two days before Tax Day. :mad: Tripler April, eh? At least I can get good ‘n’ drunk for St. Patty’s Day that year. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/9 "2004-12-28T00:11:24Z")
> [@Tripler](#): > > Well, I’ll be 52 at that point. Not exactly _too_ old to go out with a ‘bang’, but what the hell . . . Youngster, I’ll be 60. > [@](#): > > And to think, it’ll hit just two days before Tax Day. :mad: You say that _now_, but what if you’re doing your returns the week before and discover you _owe_ money to the government? Instead of giving it to Uncle Sam, you can blow it on Roofie Coladas and Viagra Cocktails at the hotel bar in Maui! 😃 > [@](#): > > Tripler > April, eh? At least I can get good ‘n’ drunk for St. Patty’s Day that year. I say avoid the rush and start now! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/10 "2004-12-28T00:22:25Z")
You know what’s weird…when I saw the thread title, the first thing that came to mind was Jesus. And that, assuming he was born in 4 B.C. and lived to be 33 as tradition holds, Apr 13 2029 is probably the 2,000 anniversary of the crucifixion. Or thereabouts. If it ever happened, yadayada. Cue Twilight Zone music… ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/11 "2004-12-28T00:49:11Z")
> [@Tuckerfan](#): > > Youngster, I’ll be 60. Punk. I’ll be 62. ---
**Author:** ![Kilvert\_s\_Pagan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/c37758/32.png) [@Kilvert\_s\_Pagan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kilvert_s_Pagan)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/12 "2004-12-28T00:50:12Z")
hmmm… I’ll be 70. Sounds better than a slow death in an old folks’ home. ---
**Author:** ![Lobsang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobsang/32/4067_2.png) [@Lobsang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobsang)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/13 "2004-12-28T00:51:31Z")
Plans For 4/13/29 Save the world from a life-threatening asteroid in some intelligent hollywood fashion… …not by sending Bruce Willis to the asteroid but… …by co-ordinating a worldwide nuclear strike on the asteroid which would blow it into so many smithereens that they would be small enough to break up in earth’s atmposphere harmlessly… ---
**Author:** ![Abbie\_Carmichael](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/49beb7/32.png) [@Abbie\_Carmichael](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Abbie_Carmichael)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/14 "2004-12-28T00:53:36Z")
I’ll be 52. Too old to enjoy life, so this asteroid thing works out pretty well. Thanks for the heads up! ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/15 "2004-12-28T01:11:56Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > You know what’s weird…when I saw the thread title, the first thing that came to mind was Jesus. And that, assuming he was born in 4 B.C. and lived to be 33 as tradition holds, Apr 13 2029 is probably the 2,000 anniversary of the crucifixion. Or thereabouts. If it ever happened, yadayada. > > Cue Twilight Zone music… Yeah, but is April 13, 2029 Easter (or good friday)? If so, that is even weirder! ---
**Author:** ![SandyHook](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dec6dc/32.png) [@SandyHook](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SandyHook)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/16 "2004-12-28T01:34:08Z")
I’m 57 now: I got the ‘roids coming and going on some schedule only they know about; arthritis is working on the right hand and shoulder; the dick don’t work worth a hoot anymore; I need glasses to read’; famous people are dying that I didn’t even know ever lived; weight loss is a dream; it’s years until Ms Hook can retire; I never go anywhere without taking a bunch of Rolaids; the good health news at this age is, “It’s not as bad as we first thought.” Frankly, at 82, a good astroid slamming sounds like a good thing to me. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d26b3c/32.png) [@Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Blue_Sky)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/17 "2004-12-28T01:38:53Z")
If the asteroid were to hit and you were standing at the exact point of impact, which would kill you: the shock wave or the actual hit? ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/18 "2004-12-28T01:49:41Z")
> [@I Love Me](#): > > Yeah, but is April 13, 2029 Easter (or good friday)? If so, that is even weirder! Easter will be on 1 April 2029. It misses Ramadan, too, in case you were going to ask. It could hit, Songkran, the Thai New Year, but can’t find the exact date for that year. ---
**Author:** ![Clothahump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/51bf81/32.png) [@Clothahump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Clothahump)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/19 "2004-12-28T02:41:07Z")
> [@Tripler](#): > > Well, I’ll be 52 at that point. Not exactly _too_ old to go out with a ‘bang’, but what the hell . . . Young whippersnapper. I’ll be 81. Hopefully, I’ll go out with a bang involving a 19 year old hottie the night before. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Misnomer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/misnomer/32/14897_2.png) [@Misnomer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Misnomer)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836/20 "2004-12-28T03:27:49Z")
It’ll miss us: [The Death Clock](http://www.deathclock.com/) says I have until Tuesday, December 3, 2047. 😃 [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-make-plans-for-4-13-29/281836.md?page=2)