# Don't tell me Democrats can't contest IA, MO, KY, TN, AR, LA in the general **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 12, 2020, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363 "2020-03-12T20:05:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Yankees\_1996\_Champs](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Yankees\_1996\_Champs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yankees_1996_Champs)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/1 "2020-03-12T20:05:26Z")
Democrats can compete in all these states this fall. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/2 "2020-03-12T20:07:26Z")
OK I won’t tell you that but I believe it. Of those 6 maybe IA is winnable. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/3 "2020-03-12T20:24:09Z")
Don’t tell me the Tennessee Volunteers can’t compete with the KC Chiefs. Just put them on the same field and let’s find out. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/4 "2020-03-12T20:27:28Z")
I think this election year is one where almost anything can happen. So was 2016; we just didn’t know it until early November. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/5 "2020-03-12T20:28:01Z")
We’re certainly going to try. I’m just not going to be surprised if we fail. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/6 "2020-03-12T20:30:48Z")
Yes, they can certainly compete in those states. I could enter a beauty pageant too. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/7 "2020-03-12T20:37:00Z")
IA, MO, KY, TN, AR, LA Would be tough, very tough. But it doesn’t matter that much as Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan & Wisconsin all have a good chance of going Dem at the top of the ticket and hopefully coat-tailing plenty of lower offices. I think Arizona & Georgia are two states where Trump is likely to win but the Dems might take Senate seats. Any Republican Senate up for election in a Blue State and the Purple states are at risk. ---
**Author:** ![Kimera757](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kimera757/32/3765_2.png) [@Kimera757](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimera757)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/8 "2020-03-12T22:31:06Z")
With the exception on one state, in the Electoral College states are winner-take-all. Democratic effort spent in trying to win KY, TN, or AR are completely wasted, as limiting losses still gives Republicans a win in their mainly safe states. For that matter, Trump shouldn’t bother trying to campaign in California, as he will never win Bernie territory. Democrats might win local seats in those states, though. Especially if Biden kicks some behind in the campaign, it makes sense to add a few extra Democratic House seats. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/9 "2020-03-12T23:05:48Z")
Sigh. I remember when Missouri used to be a bellwether state. Alas. In 2016, Trump beat Clinton 56.4%-37.9%, about 1.6M to 1.1M votes. I’d love to see us go blue again, but that’s going to be a tough climb. We’d have to get a hellacious turnout in the St. Louis and KC metro areas plus Boone County (Columbia, MO, where Mizzou is), plus convince at least some rural voters that not selling soybeans to China was kind of bad for them. Possible, but it’s not going to be easy. In 2008, McCain beat Obama here by only 0.1%, about 4000 votes. Romney took MO by almost 10% in 2012. So we haven’t been solid red forever, but we’ve been heading in the wrong direction the past two cycles. And Joe Biden is no Obama, so I don’t see him reversing that direction. All of which makes me sad. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/10 "2020-03-12T23:16:54Z")
I am an Arkansan. I see no chance that the Democrats win here. Being a Dem is more accepted than the deep South, but Trump has pretty much bamboozled most of the state. I am also close to Missouri (probably 20-ish minutes), and have friends up there. I think there might be a slim chance up there, because Missouri has been more Democratic in the past. But that’s subjective experience. I think what is useful is looking at what FiveThirtyEight does, by looking at how states are correlated. Unfortunately, I’m not easily finding the ranks from last time, but maybe someone else could. It was basically just a list of states where, for your state to go blue, the states above it would likely also be blue. What I do remember is that Arkansas was pretty far down, with 9x% certainty that it would not flip. If anyone could find that, it might be useful. I thought it was a great way of looking at this thing. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/11 "2020-03-12T23:25:43Z")
If the Democrats try win any red states, the focus should be on Texas, Georgia, and Arizona. The states mentioned in the OP don’t make much sense to target. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/12 "2020-03-13T00:30:58Z")
I’ve been saying ever since the 2018 midterms that the Dems have a decent chance of picking up Iowa’s 6 electoral votes this November. After all, the Dems got a majority of Iowa’s House votes in 2018, and the vote in all four seats was close enough to give partisans a reason to show up. But the other five? Not a chance. ---
**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/13 "2020-03-13T01:25:20Z")
Hey! We have a good chance at L.A. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/14 "2020-03-13T01:31:31Z")
Iowa I think is most definitely in play. I think Joni Ernst has overstayed her welcome and the tariff war has screwed the farmers plus everyone took a bath in their 401k this past 2 weeks. Missouri would be a stretch. But if corona kills 1% of the population maybe that will start a tsunami. Kentucky- I don’t see it but Moscow Mitch could possibly lose. Tennessee- no way. If Al Gore couldn’t carry his home state why would Biden take it. Arkansas no way. If Satan had an R next to his name he’d win. Louisiana no way, but not as impossible as Arkansas. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/15 "2020-03-13T02:12:12Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Tennessee- no way. If Al Gore couldn’t carry his home state why would Biden take it. That was 20 years ago. Do you think Gore lost the state because Tennessee is somehow tied to the Republican party forevermore? In that time, Virginia has gone blue, and North Carolina has gone purple. It might be so that Biden doesn’t have a good chance of winning Tennessee, but I don’t think that Gore’s performance in 2000 is a good basis for drawing that conclusion. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/16 "2020-03-13T03:49:36Z")
What I love is that Virginia is now Blue, and NC is purple. Not to mention, if Beto campaigns hard for Biden, the GOP and trump will have to work really hard in Texas. That will draw $$ and time away for the other purple states. And if Biden picks the Veep many think he will pick, Georgia will be in play. Mind you- I dont think he will win it, but it will be a contest. 32% is Black and only 58% is white and half of that is women. The bad news is that may kiss off Az. Iowa will be a battleground. Florida will be the big battle. Biden is apparently VERY popular in Mich. :eek: ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/17 "2020-03-13T04:01:03Z")
Given that Bloomberg’s accounts are going to defray much of the cost of campaigning in the must win states, spending some elsewhere may be worthwhile this time. The payoff may be improbable at the top of the ticket for most of them but there can still be reasonable ROI from local races to Senator level contests, in individual cases. Pick the local races strategically and even in Arkansas there can be some ROI. ---
**Author:** ![Superdude](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/superdude/32/13450_2.png) [@Superdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superdude)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/18 "2020-03-13T05:38:21Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Iowa I think is most definitely in play. I think Joni Ernst has overstayed her welcome and the tariff war has screwed the farmers plus everyone took a bath in their 401k this past 2 weeks. > > Missouri would be a stretch. But if corona kills 1% of the population maybe that will start a tsunami. > > Kentucky- I don’t see it but Moscow Mitch could possibly lose. > > Tennessee- no way. If Al Gore couldn’t carry his home state why would Biden take it. > > Arkansas no way. If Satan had an R next to his name he’d win. > > Louisiana no way, but not as impossible as Arkansas. Many in Kentucky are fed up with Mitch. I can’t say that enough are to spoil his reelection efforts, but many of us are determined to do our part. We’ve already got rid of Matt Bevin. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 5:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/19 "2020-03-13T05:48:45Z")
> [@Acsenray](#): > > That was 20 years ago. Do you think Gore lost the state because Tennessee is somehow tied to the Republican party forevermore? In that time, Virginia has gone blue, and North Carolina has gone purple. > > It might be so that Biden doesn’t have a good chance of winning Tennessee, but I don’t think that Gore’s performance in 2000 is a good basis for drawing that conclusion. Tennessee has gotten far redder since Gore. Clinton/Gore winning TN was the last time we will see a Dem win in TN ---
**Author:** ![Projammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/projammer/32/559_2.png) [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 6:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dont-tell-me-democrats-cant-contest-ia-mo-ky-tn-ar-la-in-the-general/849363/20 "2020-03-13T06:54:48Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Yes, they can certainly compete in those states. I could enter a beauty pageant too. > > Regards, > Shodan I’d vote for you. I’m sure you’d look divine in an evening gown. 😃 > [@BobLibDem](#): > > Iowa I think is most definitely in play. I think Joni Ernst has overstayed her welcome and the tariff war has screwed the farmers **plus everyone took a bath in their 401k this past 2 weeks.** I wouldn’t bet on that in November. I expect the losses on Wall Street will have had ample time to reverse themselves by then.