# Doomsday clock setting **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 8, 2020, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133 "2020-01-08T17:59:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![PoppaSan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/poppasan/32/189_2.png) [@PoppaSan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PoppaSan)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/1 "2020-01-08T17:59:32Z")
In another thread mention is made of the [doomsday clock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock). Since its inception 73 years ago it has never been further that 17 minutes from midnight. What type of world would it need to be for the clock to be set to, oh let’s say 6AM? or Noon? ---
**Author:** ![Arkcon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/96bed5/32.png) [@Arkcon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Arkcon)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/2 "2020-01-08T18:23:36Z")
I’ve wondered that too, since it all seems to be up to their own agenda, anyway. But look here (and scroll down a bit): [Doomsday Clock - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock#Reception) It goes positive when a treaty gets signed. That’s it. Why’d they ignore the Oslo Accords? Just because one group doesn’t have nukes? Proxy wars can still cause accidents, can’t they? So, we sign more treaties and the number goes down – add to that climate change treaties, since they’ve added that to the clock. Re-neg on a treaty, clock goes closer to midnight. Sign a bunch of treaties, and don’t follow through for years? You get a comfy number on the dial that means nothing real. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/3 "2020-01-08T18:31:19Z")
Since this is basically going to be based on opinions, let’s move it to IHMO. Colibri General Questions Moderator ---
**Author:** ![Arkcon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/96bed5/32.png) [@Arkcon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Arkcon)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/4 "2020-01-08T18:48:15Z")
Hrm… sorry about that, I actually DID wonder what the group’s rules were, and I DID get an answer from Wikipedia, but really, so much bias from inception, to which treaties they include, to going fractional, to adding climate change, its all a house of cards. ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/5 "2020-01-08T18:57:00Z")
It would certainly have to be pre-nuclear and probably pre-twentieth century. Maybe the “Gay Nineties” of the 19th century? That was a pretty benign era. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/6 "2020-01-08T19:40:54Z")
Did it change recently due to current events, I wonder? [Googling…] Yep, [will have an announcement on it in 2 weeks](https://thebulletin.org/2020/01/watch-the-2020-doomsday-clock-announcement/), meaning a change is likely then. ---
**Author:** ![PoppaSan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/poppasan/32/189_2.png) [@PoppaSan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PoppaSan)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2020, 6:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/7 "2020-01-09T06:01:37Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > Did it change recently due to current events, I wonder? > > [Googling…] > > Yep, [will have an announcement on it in 2 weeks](https://thebulletin.org/2020/01/watch-the-2020-doomsday-clock-announcement/), meaning a change is likely then. Yeah that would be there annual news conference explaining how the world is going to 'ell based on their opinion. Still wonder why it is always so close to the end. ---
**Author:** ![Asuka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@Asuka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Asuka)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2020, 7:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/8 "2020-01-09T07:47:48Z")
Ever since they started adding climate change to the clock it really started to make things complicated, almost a “mission creep” sort of thing. I’d say noon would probably be if everyone agreed to disarm nuclear weapons but still had stockpiles that needed to be decommissioned. 6AM would be all major nuclear powers completely decommissioned but rogue nuclear states like North Korea and Israel not being fully transparent still with their arsenals. 1am ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2020, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/9 "2020-01-09T14:40:46Z")
I think they lean too far to the pessimistic side of things. Despite Trump and other nationalist rulers around the world, I think the world is safer than during the Cold War, and not just by a little bit. Even including global warming I think we’re a lot closer to something like 8 or 9 PM, and the vast majority of that would be from the global warming rather than the threat of nuclear war. Im not an expert on geopolitical issues, but I doubt we’re less safe now than we were during something like the Cuban missile crisis. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2020, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/10 "2020-01-10T05:25:30Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > I think they lean too far to the pessimistic side of things. Despite Trump and other nationalist rulers around the world, I think the world is safer than during the Cold War, and not just by a little bit. I feel greater confidence in “pessimistic” alarms that may trigger corrections, than in “optimistic” decrees that everything is pretty much okay, don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. I’m not confident the world won’t go to shit. And I’ve no rocket to escape in. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2020, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/11 "2020-01-23T18:37:14Z")
> [@](#): > > To: Leaders and citizens of the world > Re: Closer than ever: It is 100 seconds to midnight > Date: January 23, 2020 > > Humanity continues to face two simultaneous existential dangers—nuclear war and climate change—that are compounded by a threat multiplier, cyber-enabled information warfare, that undercuts society’s ability to respond. The international security situation is dire, not just because these threats exist, but because world leaders have allowed the international political infrastructure for managing them to erode. > **[Current Time - 2024 - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/)** > > It is 90 seconds to midnight. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2020, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/12 "2020-01-23T18:41:29Z")
When Donald Trump was elected President, they moved the hand forward by 30 seconds. This was my take before the announcement, and while the numbers may have (slightly) shifted, it’s still correct: > [@Donald Trump and the Doomsday clock. What time will it be?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-and-the-doomsday-clock-what-time-will-it-be/775821/7): > > This is one of those situations where developments have shown the Doomsday Clock to be nothing more than a silly exercise in bad marketing. > > By their calculations, and keeping the clock analogy with its implied 24hr day, we are already 1437/1440th away from nuclear obliteration. So what does it matter if the US gives the bomb to Donald Trump? What are they going to do…raise that percentage from the current likelihood of 99.7916% to, what, 99.8611%? Even as an analogy: what the hell does that even mean: N Korea, with its few weapons, gets us to a 99.79% chance of humanity’s doom, and DJT with his thousands of bombs, only increases this threat by 6/10th’s of 1%? How do those numbers make any damned sense? > > If this idea had any validity and was, in fact, a measure of this groups concern about the direction of current events, they wouldn’t keep the clock within the range of 98.81%-99.81% of “midnight”. IMHO, they’ve blown up the analogy by keeping the time so close to midnight that it’s irrelevant if it moves forward. There’s 100 seconds left. What happens if there are 14 10-second movements on the “bad” side? How does that even get… ugh. Don’t even get me started. Just a dumb analogy. ---
**Author:** ![jtur88](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e9c0ed/32.png) [@jtur88](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jtur88)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2020, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/13 "2020-01-24T03:10:17Z")
US troops have not entered a new theater of active belligerence in four years. First time we have gone that long since the 70s. (Not all sources agree on those definitions,) ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2020, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/14 "2020-01-24T03:25:14Z")
As long as nuclear weapons exist, can the clock ever be moved back (much)? ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2020, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/15 "2020-01-24T05:29:49Z")
> [@jtur88](#): > > US troops have not entered a new theater of active belligerence in four years. First time we have gone that long since the 70s. (Not all sources agree on those definitions,) That’s because they’ve run out of places that the troops haven’t gone to. ---
**Author:** ![jtur88](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e9c0ed/32.png) [@jtur88](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jtur88)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2020, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/16 "2020-01-25T02:44:55Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > As long as nuclear weapons exist, can the clock ever be moved back (much)? I don’t think there is full agreement anymore that nuclear detonation is the only, or even the most compelling doomsday scenario we have to consider. ---
**Author:** ![Projammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/projammer/32/559_2.png) [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2020, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/doomsday-clock-setting/846133/17 "2020-01-25T03:36:23Z")
There’s going to be a lot of really embarrassed people if it makes it to 5 minutes after midnight and nothing happens.