# Dopers Predict the 88th Academy Awards Winners: Best Picture **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [January 19, 2016, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562 "2016-01-19T11:38:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mean_mr.mustard/32/3865_2.png) [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mean_Mr.Mustard)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/1 "2016-01-19T11:38:27Z")
Let’s see how well we can, as a group, predict the major Oscar winners. It is not necessary to have seen all the nominated films to vote, simply predict who or what you think will win. First up: Best Picture mmm ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/2 "2016-01-19T17:17:25Z")
The Revenant has the most nominations across the board and so is the favourite, though not prohibitively so. It’d be delightful if Mad Max wins but it won’t. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/3 "2016-01-19T23:03:16Z")
Should: Mad Max 4 Will: Revenant or Spotlight ---
**Author:** ![GuanoLad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guanolad/32/42_2.png) [@GuanoLad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuanoLad)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2016, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/4 "2016-01-20T00:02:02Z")
I’ve only seen two of them, though I want to watch _Bridge of Spies_. I think _Creed_ will win. Oh wait, that’s not nominated. Okay, judging purely by public response, my guess is it will be _Room_. ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2016, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/5 "2016-01-20T00:19:02Z")
Haven’t seen _Room_ or _Brooklyn_. I thought the only real chances were _The Revenant_ and\* Spotlight\*. I watched _Spotlight_ last night so definitely _The Revenant_. Must have been weird for Tom McCarthy turning up to direct that cast after immediately prior working with Razzie nominated Adam Sandler on _The Cobbler_. ---
**Author:** ![Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mean_mr.mustard/32/3865_2.png) [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mean_Mr.Mustard)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2016, 11:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/6 "2016-01-20T11:14:36Z")
I’ve only seen The Martian and The Big Short, so I gotta get it in gear. I’m predicting The Martian will take it. mmm ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2016, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/7 "2016-01-20T12:09:19Z")
I haven’t seen any of them, but I’ll go with _The Revenant_. It seems to be a favorite. ---
**Author:** ![BwanaBob](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bwanabob/32/2985_2.png) [@BwanaBob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BwanaBob)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2016, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/8 "2016-01-20T13:03:22Z")
Am I the only one completely blown away by the Mad Max nomination? I’m rather stunned by it. I’ve enjoyed those type of films but honestly I feel they’re rather low-brow. To me, this is like Solarbabies getting a nomination. If Alien were released today, would it garner such acclaim? It would seem to be a far superior film. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2016, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/9 "2016-01-20T14:22:34Z")
BwanaBob, did you see the most recent Mad Max? It’s not in the same category as _Beyond Thunderdome_. Sure, it’s an action movie with 90 minutes of car chases and explosions, but it was smart and inventive. It won’t win, but for “those types of films” it was the best in years and years. I’ve seen all eight nominees. I won’t be surprised if _The Revenant_ wins - it was a visually arresting film and had to be difficult to make; they can’t really give the Oscar to Inarratu (I’m sure I spelled that wrong) two years in a row, so they might vote BP instead. It’s not undeserving, exactly, but it wasn’t my favorite nominee. I voted for _The Martian_ to win. That might be wishful thinking but I’m hoping for a Revenant backlash. I’d also be happy to see _Spotlight_ win but I think that’s more of a longshot than it was two months ago. Other random thoughts about the nominees: - _Brooklyn_ was a complete delight. Go see it. Bring a date. - The kid from _Room_ should have been nominated. He was amazing. - This may be the first Oscars in years where I actually liked all the BP nominees, although some more than others. I won’t be really upset by any of them winning. It’s impossible to compare _Room_ and _Mad Max_ and say one was better than the other. (Although I think the nomination for _Bridge of Spies_ was a bit perfunctory – like it had to be nominated because it’s Hanks/Spielberg. I liked it fine, but did not come out of the theater thinking it deserved a BP nomination). ---
**Author:** ![Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mean_mr.mustard/32/3865_2.png) [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mean_Mr.Mustard)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2016, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/10 "2016-01-21T11:51:15Z")
I expected **The Martian** to be much more competitive in this poll. Can’t wait to see **The Revenant**. mmm ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2016, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/11 "2016-01-21T18:28:17Z")
> [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](#): > > I expected **The Martian** to be much more competitive in this poll. The lack of a director nod for Ridley Scott all but killed its chances. These are the primary categories that most frequently align themselves with a Best Picture win: Director, Screenplay, Editing. Films w/o a Director nod: **Bridge, Brooklyn, Martian** Films w/o a Screenplay nod: **Max, Revenant** Films w/o an Editing nod: **Bridge, Brooklyn, Martian, Room**. None of these are deal-breakers, but the more you have, the better off you are. Also, those films with the most nominations usually do better because it shows their support has great breadth across multiple branches. This year, the two leaders are _Revenant_ (12) and _Max_ (10). _The Martian_ places a distant third, with 7. ---
**Author:** ![FuriousGeorge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ecae2f/32.png) [@FuriousGeorge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FuriousGeorge)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2016, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/12 "2016-01-21T18:32:54Z")
Haven’t seen **The Martian** or **Room** , yet. Of the rest, it’s **The Big Short** over \*\*The Revenant \*\*followed by **Bridge of Spies** , **Spotlight** , **Brooklyn** … and waaaaay behind **Mad Max: Fury Road** , which baffles me in the love it’s getting. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2016, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/13 "2016-01-21T22:40:23Z")
I haven’t seen enough of them yet to form an opinion, but I’m surprised at all the buzz over _The Revenant_. I’d be disappointed (again) in the Oscars if this meandering and unpleasant film wins, and if di Caprio wins anything it should be “most overrated actor”. _The Martian_ probably deserves something for cinematography and it was definitely entertaining and well made, but I’m not sure about “best film of the year” by any means. _Bridge of Spies_ was like Spielberg setting out to prove that he’s still got the magic touch, and he does – everybody involved in this film knows what they’re doing, and they’ve spun an intriguing story in which not only the physical sets but the social values are a perfectly reconstructed 1960. Both those last two I’d like to see again. I haven’t yet seen _Spotlight_ or _The Big Short_, but social commentary is always good fodder for an Oscar. ---
**Author:** ![Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mean_mr.mustard/32/3865_2.png) [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mean_Mr.Mustard)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2016, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/14 "2016-01-21T23:13:12Z")
> [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](#): > > I expected **The Martian** to be much more competitive in this poll. > [@MovieMogul](#): > > The lack of a director nod for Ridley Scott all but killed its chances. These are the primary categories that most frequently align themselves with a Best Picture win: Director, Screenplay, Editing… I’m not doubting, but I’m curious if this proven statistically. Cite? In any event, I was referring specifically to the SDMB; I expected Dopers to be all Martiany. mmm ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2016, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/15 "2016-01-21T23:32:01Z")
> [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](#): > > I’m not doubting, but I’m curious if this proven statistically. Cite? In the last 50 years, the number of Best Picture winners without a nomination in the following categories: Director: **Argo, Driving Miss Daisy** (2) Screenplay: **The Sound of Music, Titanic** (2) Editing: **Annie Hall, Birdman, The Godfather Part II, A Man for All Seasons, Ordinary People** (5) To add one more, Acting (encompassing all 4 categories): **Braveheart, The Last Emperor, LOTR: Return of the King, Slumdog Millionaire** (4) So that’s 90% or higher for each. Nominees this year with no acting nominations: **Max** > [@](#): > > In any event, I was referring specifically to the SDMB; I expected Dopers to be all Martiany. I think if the question was “What is your personal favorite?” vs. “What do you predict will win?”, then I think you’re right–the film would be doing better. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/16 "2016-01-22T18:00:55Z")
I’m sticking by my prediction of “The Revenant” but amongst the ones I have seen, if I had a vote, it’d be for “Mad Max.” “The Revenant” was a hell of a movie, don’t get me wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/17 "2016-01-22T18:07:17Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I’m sticking by my prediction of “The Revenant” but amongst the ones I have seen, if I had a vote, it’d be for “Mad Max.” > > “The Revenant” was a hell of a movie, don’t get me wrong. I’ll have to check it out. I work with a lady whose husband is in the Academy. Maybe he has a screener I can borrow. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/18 "2016-01-22T20:50:04Z")
I have seen none of them. I voted for Spotlight because it’s an “important” movie. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2016, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/19 "2016-01-24T14:02:22Z")
Well. The Producers Guild of America just threw a complication into it by picking THE BIG SHORT for best picture. ETA: I should add, the PGA best picture last failed to match the Academy’s in 2006. Prediction-wise it’s a big deal. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2016, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562/20 "2016-01-25T20:55:08Z")
That’s… well, it’s kind of stunning, actually. What a weird wrinkle. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dopers-predict-the-88th-academy-awards-winners-best-picture/743562.md?page=2)