# DOW at nearly 23k for first time in history...what is going on?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [October 17, 2017, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148 "2017-10-17T19:11:01Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 5

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**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2017, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/81 "2017-10-20T19:43:17Z")

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> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> So at the time of the downturn, you either had a lot of liquidity in your 401k, meaning you sold out or accumulated cash in the boom times (following my advice! Great job!) Or you added a lot of cash to your 401k (seems dubious, with the $15K annual limit or whatever it was in 2007)
> 
> Then you “bought stocks as hard as you could” in the downturn. So you took all this liquidity and spent it on these excellent stocks… which also is interesting, since most 401k don’t allow investing in individual stocks. You must mean you were buying mutual funds, which of course can include stocks, but you’re not exactly the one picking the deals here, are you?
> 
> Even if we ignore the holes in your story, it validates what I’m saying. You want to buy in the bust period. You can only do that if you have some liquidity to play with. That means you protect your assets in the boom period, which is what I’m advising.
> 
> I really don’t understand all these people saying that obviously you need to buy low and sell high, and then insist that they aren’t selling around the peak. That means either you think you have a superhuman ability to know exactly when to get out, or that you’re just gambling and hoping for the best, or that you’re really not doing anything you say you’re doing.

No, I didn’t have a lot of accumulated cash, but I did have around 30% of the 401K in bonds and during 2008 normal rebalancing meant I had to sell a lot of bonds and buy stocks to bring me back to a 70/30 ratio. That’s not a hole in my story, that’s just rebalancing. I can explain it to you, but if you don’t understand it already this probably isn’t the right thread.

That plus the $15,500 I could put in, plus my $5,000 a year catch up for being older than 50, plus the company match gave me a chunk of fresh cash to put in at the bottom.

And a lot of retirement accounts offered self directed brokerage accounts even 20 years ago. That’s also something you don’t seem to know.

As far as selling around the peak, I mainly don’t sell at all except to rebalance. I still have the first share of stock I ever bought more thirty years ago. Of course, these days I’m strictly in index funds, but I have a sentimental attachment.

There was a time when I had almost half my 401k in a self-directed account in individual stocks, but as I reached sixty or so I realized that staying on top of 40 individual stocks required a diligence which detracted from the quality of my life without providing a significant enhancement to the return so I spent almost a year choosing exit points and transferring over to index funds.

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**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2017, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/82 "2017-10-20T21:03:51Z")

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> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> Semantics. If you can convert to cash in a day or so, that’s liquidity. Or sufficient liquidity to demonstrate my point, which is, if you consider market crashes as a buying opportunity, then you must consider market booms as a selling opportunity. Otherwise you’ve got nothing to buy with.
> 
> And the larger point I’m addressing is the incoherence of some of the conversational points I’m hearing. i.e. people saying they’ll stay fully in stocks while the market is high, and then pick up all the bargains when the market crashes. No. That’s not how that works, not unless you have a crystal ball to call the crash right before it happens. Either that, or you weren’t completely honest about being 100% exposed to stocks.

If you are investing periodically then that is what you are doing. You are staying in when high and buying when high, low, and in the middle. Saying you are buying a bargain when it crashes is correct in retrospect. Noone is saying they have a crystal ball.

What I and a few others are saying is that if you are investing over time and have a long enough horizon you’d be foolish to cash out at a so-called peak. Because guess what? Those who panic and sell don’t have crystal balls either. Historic graphs however are freely available to everyone. They show that the US market over 15 year periods always go up.

When your alternative is a bank account that pays less than inflation why wouldn’t you invest in equities if your debt is low interest and you don’t have enough money to invest in diverse real estate? Now, of course, the past doesn’t predict the future. However, since stock markets reflect value of companies in dollar terms and productivity, innovation, and stability are all high it’s doubtful that the stock market is going to disappear. If it did, your holdings in anything aren’t at the top of your worries.

The positive trend that _could_ be disruptive enough to cause concern is advance AI and robotics.

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**Author:** ![jasg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jasg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasg)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2017, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/83 "2017-10-20T21:16:01Z")

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I will echo what **Bill Door** says - and his approach.

The one time I tried to anticipate what the market would do, I lost out on 20% growth in what I sold.

The three times I just stayed with my investment mix and monthly investing, I lost lots of money - but it all came back in less than 18 months (1987, 2000-2002 and 2008-2009).

This time around, I will again stay the course. I am living off a stable value fund and will let my stocks and bonds rise and fall with this market.

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**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2017, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/84 "2017-10-20T21:23:57Z")

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> [@Bill\_Door](#):
>
> I know it seems like it should have been some kind of disaster, but for me, in my late fifties in 2008, it really was lost in the noise. Sure, my 401k dropped by 32% between 1/1/2008 and 1/1/2009, and that was with me buying stocks as hard as I could. The actual market losses were closer to the 50% that you stated.
> 
> Then the very next year between 1/1/2009 and 1/1/2010 my 401k increased by 50%. A lot of that gain was from stocks I bought during 2008 when everything was on sale. As long as you can keep purchasing down markets really are sources of opportunity.
> 
> Someone once said being happy about the stock market going up is like being happy about gasoline prices going up just because you’ve got some in your tank.

We were fortunate that we had institutions strong enough to bail out the financial system and a federal government wise enough to implement the New Deal safeguards. We may not be so lucky next time.

Consider that banking accounts were spread among many banks a decade ago. The recession wiped out many of those and a few big banks control a much larger share of assets. Even if a president and congress wanted to, institutions may not be able to bail out the banks - and that’s assuming that this government would even attempt to. I still remember the proto-tea party wing of the GOP voted against bailouts and only did so when it was clear that the financial system was perhaps 24-48 hours from collapsing into oblivion.

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**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2017, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/85 "2017-10-20T21:32:22Z")

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> [@doorhinge](#):
>
> Trade deals with the U.S.A. have been occuring since 1789, and Canada has been solely responsible for it’s trade deals since 1931. Or is it 1982? Some trade deals are better than others, and they can all be renegotiated.
> 
> The modification, or ending, of NAFTA isn’t going to end trade between Canada and the U.S… Nations want to make money, companies want to make money, investors want to make money, employees want to make money, and most voters want to earn money. Trade between Canada and the U.S. will continue, in spite of any internal politics.
> 
> As far as those “predictions” being coupled, one was a statement (Some people have been predicting a slump in the economy), and the other was a point in time (ever since …).

It’s not just trade with Canada that will be disrupted; the Trump administration is going to disrupt global trade of all kinds. This is an area where Trump at least reveals some ideological leanings, preferring to take America back to a world that predates global trade agreements. Yes, there was trade in 1972 before NAFTA and WTO, but to dismantle the agreements now would be extremely disruptive and nobody would know the consequences.

Generally, a world that operates on protectionism and nationalism is one that favors competition over cooperation. Living in that kind of world means encourages conflict and force over negotiation. I have no problem with Trump pushing a renegotiation on trade, but negotiation means that each party walks away with something. That’s not what Trump is advocating. He wants his legacy to be one in which America dominates its trading partners.

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**Author:** ![nachtmusick](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/ac91a4/32.png) [@nachtmusick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nachtmusick)\
**Post date:** [July 28, 2018, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/87 "2018-07-28T15:40:41Z")

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The Dow Jones “Trump Bump” maxed at almost 27K in Jan. 2018. Since then the Dow has been more or less flat. If one takes a look at the 5-year market trend, it is reasonable to hypothesize that there was an initial surge of enthusiasm based on expectations of lower corporate taxes and less government regulation, but since then the long-term upward trend that preceded Trump has stalled, at least temporarily.

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**Author:** ![Crafter\_Man](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crafter_man/32/458_2.png) [@Crafter\_Man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crafter_Man)\
**Post date:** [July 28, 2018, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/88 "2018-07-28T15:41:21Z")

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I know quite a few business owners. Most were not fans of Obama during his administration. Not because of what he did, but because of what they believed he _ **might** _ do: they were worried he would raise their taxes and/or enact more burdensome regulations on them. This fear (rational or not) made them apprehensive to take risks and invest in their companies. With Trump, they have much less fear of this occurring (again, rational or not), and are more willing to take risks and invest.

In other words, many business folks are very sensitive to what _might_ happen based on personal perceptions and biases, even when they’re irrational.

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**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\
**Post date:** [July 28, 2018, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/89 "2018-07-28T17:44:05Z")

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> [@nachtmusick](#):
>
> The Dow Jones “Trump Bump” maxed at almost 27K in Jan. 2018. Since then the Dow has been more or less flat. If one takes a look at the 5-year market trend, it is reasonable to hypothesize that there was an initial surge of enthusiasm based on expectations of lower corporate taxes and less government regulation, but since then the long-term upward trend that preceded Trump has stalled, at least temporarily.

The market really, really, REALLY does not like tariffs.

It does not like tariffs on ham  
It does not like tariffs on jam  
It does not like tariffs on cars  
It does not like tariffs on jars

There might be some stock plays that can make you money off the trade war, but the market in general is taking a hit.

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**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\
**Post date:** [July 29, 2018, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/90 "2018-07-29T03:19:28Z")

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> [@John\_Mace](#):
>
> The market really, really, REALLY does not like tariffs.
> 
> It does not like tariffs on ham  
> It does not like tariffs on jam  
> It does not like tariffs on cars  
> It does not like tariffs on jars
> 
> There might be some stock plays that can make you money off the trade war, but the market in general is taking a hit.

It does not like tariffs on Jose  
It does not like tariffs on Rene  
It does not like tariffs on Wolfgang  
It does not like tariffs on Li Qiang

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**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\
**Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/91 "2018-08-01T18:36:49Z")

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> [@XT](#):
>
> So, I’ve been watching the DOW for quite a while now with growing puzzlement. In a fairly short time, I’ve seen milestone come and go. Over 20k…did that. 21k…did that. 22k…did that. Now we are closing in on 23k. That is…well, it’s unreal. And it’s happening at a time when, at least from my perspective, it should be in correction mode. I mean, Trump is one of the most chaotic presidents ever, at least IMHO. Congress seems in the same deadlock as ever. On the world scene, I’m not seeing a lot of stability either. We have the situation with North Korea, the situation with Iran (mostly Trump made), the ongoing situation with Russia, the continuing situation in China…there just seems so much uncertainty and unknowns. Yet the DOW is up (NASDAQ is down today, but even that is at over 6.6K). What gives?
> 
> (not sure whether this is a GQ type question or IMHO…put it here since I THINK this is political and will almost certainly be a debate, but mods, feel free to move it if appropriate)

Its at 25,330.98 as of Aug 1, 2:36PM Eastern. I expect it to keep going up.

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**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\
**Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/92 "2018-08-01T19:07:01Z")

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> [@Silver\_lining](#):
>
> Its at 25,330.98 as of Aug 1, 2:36PM Eastern. I expect it to keep going up.

It was at 25,481 at10:45a (Pacific)  
That’s going down right now. Why do you think it’s going up?

It’s been sitting between 24 and 25 since late Jan.

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**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\
**Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/93 "2018-08-01T20:03:39Z")

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The DJIA is down over 1300 points on the year for 2018. What again is the trend we’re trying to extrapolate from this?

Though I’ll concede, the stock market looks seems like it’s really trying to boom, but bumping up against Trump’s boneheaded attempts at governance. Note that the market took a dive in January when Trump started effecting his protectionism agenda.

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**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\
**Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 7:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/94 "2018-08-02T07:52:38Z")

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If we’re going to bet the over-under on the long-term U.S. stock market future, I’ll want to use a constant-dollar measure. Allegedly Trump intends to pack the FRB with loose-money toadies.

And what’s with the preoccupation with the “Dow”? 😕 Half that index comes from just nine (9) stocks:  
9.4% Boeing  
6.8% UnitedHealth  
6.3% Goldman Sachs  
5.5% 3M  
5.4% Apple  
5.3% Home Depot  
4.2% McDonald’s  
3.8% IBM  
3.7% Caterpillar  
To track gun sales you don’t count invectives at Yahoo Blogs (though the count might strongly correlate); you use stats from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. To track stocks why use Boeing and United Health when you can use Stamdard & Poors’ 500-company average?

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**Author:** ![rat\_avatar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rat_avatar/32/255_2.png) [@rat\_avatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rat_avatar)\
**Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 8:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/95 "2018-08-02T08:14:43Z")

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The same reason people freak out when it approaches big round numbers, stock trading has more in common with trading baseball cards than economics these days.

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**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 8:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/96 "2018-08-02T08:51:29Z")

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Reasons:

1. The stock market operates on the [Greater Fool Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory).

2. There are a lot more fools these days.

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**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\
**Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/97 "2018-08-02T14:52:08Z")

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> [@running\_coach](#):
>
> It was at 25,481 at10:45a (Pacific)  
> That’s going down right now. Why do you think it’s going up?
> 
> It’s been sitting between 24 and 25 since late Jan.

In the past year, the Dow has gone up from 21,905 to a current 25,246.

Why?

The corporate tax rate has been reduced and some costly regulations have been rolled back. This is the work of the President.

A lower tax rate and less operating costs for regulations mean companies will be paying less in taxes and operating expenses. Companies will be keeping more of their profits and spending less to run the business.

The new tariffs and rising interest rates have some adverse fluctuation on the DOW, but earnings reports appear to be good in general, and the worry over tariffs in time I think will be less than they are now.

This will mean more jobs, and money here, and less reliance on foreign-made goods. I think the USA citizens are for that!

You might see an increased production and earnings on the areas Trump has targeted for tariffs from USA based companies. Take US steel for example. They are up for the year. 22.81 to 32.58. ( A 30% increase ) Impressive. And yes, I predicted this and profited 🙂

If you want to play the market, betting on USA companies that make the products Trump is putting tariffs on, I think is a short-term smart play.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/98 "2018-08-02T14:57:46Z")

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In September 2016 Donald Trump claimed that the stock market was already dangerously overvalued (in his words, that it was “in a big, fat, ugly bubble”). What’s changed since then to suddenly make rapid market growth a sound metric for presidential economic success?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\
**Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/99 "2018-08-02T15:00:31Z")

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> [@Gyrate](#):
>
> In September 2016 Donald Trump claimed that the stock market was already dangerously overvalued (in his words, that it was “in a big, fat, ugly bubble”). What’s changed since then to suddenly make rapid market growth a sound metric for presidential economic success?

He became president.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\
**Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/100 "2018-08-02T15:02:17Z")

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> [@Silver\_lining](#):
>
> In the past year, the Dow has gone up from 21,905 to a current 25,246.
> 
> Why?
> 
> The corporate tax rate has been reduced and some costly regulations have been rolled back. This is the work of the President.
> 
> A lower tax rate and less operating costs for regulations mean companies will be paying less in taxes and operating expenses. Companies will be keeping more of their profits and spending less to run the business.
> 
> The new tariffs and rising interest rates have some adverse fluctuation on the DOW, but earnings reports appear to be good in general, and the worry over tariffs in time I think will be less than they are now.
> 
> This will mean more jobs, and money here, and less reliance on foreign-made goods. I think the USA citizens are for that!
> 
> You might see an increased production and earnings on the areas Trump has targeted for tariffs from USA based companies. Take US steel for example. They are up for the year. 22.81 to 32.58. ( A 30% increase ) Impressive. And yes, I predicted this and profited 🙂
> 
> If you want to play the market, betting on USA companies that make the products Trump is putting tariffs on, I think is a short-term smart play.

Funny. Over the same time period Trump’s market has gone about about the same as Obama’s. It is almost as if Trump inherited Obama’s economy and hasn’t really affected it one way or another (alternatively, that the president really doesn’t have as much influence over the markets as people like to think). But I would _love_ to hear you praise Obama for creating the identical amount of growth over the same period of time, but you won’t will you?

> **[Stock Market Performance by President](https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/stock-market-performance-by-president)**
>
> This interactive chart shows the running percentage gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average by Presidential term. Each series begins with the closing value of the month of inauguration and runs to the closing value of the last month of the term. ...

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\
**Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dow-at-nearly-23k-for-first-time-in-history-what-is-going-on/799148/101 "2018-08-02T15:11:07Z")

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> [@Silver\_lining](#):
>
> In the past year, the Dow has gone up from 21,905 to a current 25,246.
> 
> Why?
> 
> The corporate tax rate has been reduced and some costly regulations have been rolled back. This is the work of the President.

As I commented elsewhere, it is easier when one does not pay what one owns, and Trump is an expert on getting praises while having others pay the bill… Later.

> **[How Debt Could Blow Up the Trump Economy](https://fortune.com/2018/03/15/us-national-debt-trump-tax-cuts/)**
>
> The President's massive tax cuts and Congress's substantial spending increases are pushing government deficits into crisis territory.

> [@](#):
>
> Trump’s heady economic potion, however, is masking misguided policies that could leave those same businesses with a severe hangover from today’s celebration. The U.S. government’s huge and growing budget deficits have become gargantuan enough to threaten the great American growth machine. And Trump’s policies to date—a combination of deep tax cuts and sharp spending increases—are shortening the fuse on that fiscal time bomb, by dramatically widening the already unsustainable gap between revenues and outlays. On our current course, we’re headed for a morass of punitive taxes, puny growth, and stagnant incomes for workers—a future that’s the precise opposite of what Trump champions.
> 
> By 2028, America’s government debt burden could explode from this year’s $15.5 trillion to a staggering $33 trillion—more than 20% bigger than it would have been had Trump’s agenda not passed. At that point, interest payments would absorb more than $1 in $5 of federal revenue, crippling the government’s capacity to bolster the economy, and constraining the private sector too. Contrary to the claims of the President and his supporters, the U.S. can’t grow fast enough to shed this burden; indeed, Trump’s agenda on immigration and trade looks likely to stunt that growth. (More on that later.) “This is almost like climate change,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “It doesn’t do you in this year, or next year, but you’ll see the ill effects in a day of reckoning.”

> [@](#):
>
> Nor is Trump likely to fill the fiscal-responsibility vacuum: The President failed to even mention fiscal “deficits” or “debt” a single time in his 5,866-word State of the Union Address.

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