# DSYoung, Shove that snark up your "esquire" ass. **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [November 24, 2006, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659 "2006-11-24T17:21:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a587f6/32.png) [@Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freddy_the_Pig)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659/1 "2006-11-24T17:21:56Z")
In [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=397271)\*\* Mr. Floppy\*\* asks a question about whether a football pool should require picks to be submitted by Wednesday of Thanksgiving week. I lay out the pros and cons in Reply#5, pointing out that there is very little difference between Wednesday picks and Saturday picks. But oh, here comes snark-meister **DSYoungEsq** , who by his own testimony is not a statistician, to complain that my answer lacks “statistical rigor”, and is therefore nothing more than “opinion and guesswork”. This is roughly equivalent to the morons who complain that evolution is “only a theory”. Mr. Young, would you like to think for a moment about what “statistical rigor” in response to this question would entail? (Or is it easier just to snark?) The three Thanksgiving games and the 13 Sunday games have point spreads. The advantage of picking on Wednesday is that you have 16 games to choose from instead of 13. To establish a mathematical value for that advantage, you’ll need to find a table that converts point spread to probability of victory (assuming that one exists; if not, you’ll have to create your own from years of football results and point spreads.) Then you’ll need to calculate the expected value of points based on optimal picks (based on larges point spreads) among all 16 games versus 13 games. And all that work _will only get you an answer for this year_. The results will change from year to year based on the point spreads of the Thursday games relative to the Sunday games. A complete, rigorous answer would involve a matrix of possible Thursday point spreads. And even then, it will have little relevance, because as **bhal** points out in the linked thread, _people don’t bet that way in real life_. You have to pick outliers to have a chance of winning a large pool. Quantifying the chance of hitting an outlier combination from 16 games rather than 13 is mathematically intractable. It exists, but good luck in putting a number on it. All of the above conerns the advantage of Wednesday picking. Countervailing, we have the advantage of Saturday picking, which is that you have three more days for additional information to develop. What is the quantitative value of this? Well, I expect you to do a study about how often and by how much NFL point spreads change from Wednesday to Saturday, and then to translate that into probability of victory and then into probability of winning the pool. What’s that? You can’t do it because you’re not a statistician? But **I** should have done it before I had the effrontery to post in the thread? Fuck you. Even then, your answer would ignore the intabgible benefit to the bettor of having three extra days to read about and cogitate over his or her picks. In an efficent betting market, this advantage is worthless. So I suppose I should also have done a study as to whether football betting is “efficient”, even though economists haven’t been able to settle the question for financial markets in 100 years. So given all of these issues, what should I have done? Should I have told **MrFloppy** I’d get back to him in five years? Or should I have done what any sane person would do–post a qualitative response and tried to keep it to a reasonable length? Shove your snark up your ass sideways. ---
**Author:** ![MrSquishy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b9e5f3/32.png) [@MrSquishy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrSquishy)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659/2 "2006-11-24T19:56:55Z")
Yeah, what a dick. I’m with you on this one. Provide an answer yourself, or keep your fuckin’ mouth shut. I know it’s in GQ, but I doubt **Mr. Floppy** would have been happier if the thread had just dropped, completely unanswered, because nobody felt like doing a rigorous statistical analysis of a football pool question, for free. ---
**Author:** ![Lizard](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/dfb087/32.png) [@Lizard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lizard)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2006, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659/3 "2006-11-25T00:50:59Z")
We should title this thread “When Nerds Collide.” :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![TheLoadedDog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/35a633/32.png) [@TheLoadedDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheLoadedDog)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2006, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659/4 "2006-11-25T01:43:58Z")
It’s the side of the SDMB I don’t like. Sure, it’s great to hold this board to a higher standard than many others, and it’s important that we often provide cites or otherwise back up our comments, but lordy geez Louise, sometimes the SDMB disappears up its own arse as a result. This is a message board, not an encyclopedia. Anecdotes can be useful. Sometimes it seems that when all else fails, people maintain their SDMB cred by using the phrase “the plural of anecdote is not data” (which I find almost as snotty as “Adam and Steve”), “Search is your friend”, or peppering their posts with the words “anthropomorphism” or “disingenuous”. Favourite words are for nine year-olds, ferfecksake. ---
**Author:** ![friedo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/8edcca/32.png) [@friedo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/friedo)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2006, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659/5 "2006-11-25T01:45:41Z")
My favorite word is “poontang.” ---
**Author:** ![Taber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ac91a4/32.png) [@Taber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Taber)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2006, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659/6 "2006-11-25T03:22:55Z")
[QUOTE=friedo] My favorite word is “poontang.” [/QUOTE] Have you done a rigorous statistical analysis, or is that just opinion and guesswork? ---
**Author:** ![lissener](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lissener/32/6139_2.png) [@lissener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lissener)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2006, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659/7 "2006-11-25T06:31:56Z")
Mine might be “glitch.” ---
**Author:** ![Smeghead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Smeghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smeghead)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2006, 7:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659/8 "2006-11-25T07:04:59Z")
[QUOTE=friedo] My favorite word is “poontang.” [/QUOTE] That’s for nine-year-olds. ---
**Author:** ![Rigamarole](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/77aa72/32.png) [@Rigamarole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rigamarole)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2006, 7:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659/9 "2006-11-25T07:42:59Z")
[QUOTE=Taber] Have you done a rigorous statistical analysis, or is that just opinion and guesswork? [/QUOTE] Can’t speak for **friedo** , but I most certainly have done some very rigorous analysis on the subject in question. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![hawthorne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/c89c15/32.png) [@hawthorne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hawthorne)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2006, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659/10 "2006-11-25T12:58:43Z")
I mostly like **DSYoung** , but I think **Freddy the Pig** has a fair complaint here. It wasn’t an IMHO answer. It was reasoned, the assumptions were stated and limitations were admitted. It offered a practical and timely solution to the question. It was a good SWAG and a good GQ answer. It wasn’t a rigorous statistical answer, but it doesn’t seem like a statistical question to me (and the OP didn’t ask for rigour). And yeah, something beats nothing. ---
**Author:** ![Contrapuntal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e274bd/32.png) [@Contrapuntal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Contrapuntal)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2006, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659/11 "2006-11-25T15:08:05Z")
[QUOTE=friedo] My favorite word is “poontang.” [/QUOTE] Sometimes, if you say “My butt still itches” kinda fast, it sounds like you are saying “My butt’s delicious.” Ha ha! ---
**Author:** ![Una\_Persson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/una_persson/32/346_2.png) [@Una\_Persson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Una_Persson)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2006, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659/12 "2006-11-25T15:10:33Z")
I’m going to weigh in and agree with the principle behind the OP’s post. Posting just to say: > [@](#): > > It might be helpful if the posters here would do as the OP asked, and provide a rigorous STATISTICAL answer to the question, rather than educated guesses. **without** at least attempting to practice what one preaches, is either being a Jr. Mod, or else just not being helpful. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2006, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659/13 "2006-11-25T15:10:45Z")
[QUOTE=Contrapuntal] “My butt’s delicious.” [/QUOTE] How does it taste with a little added “esquire” shoved up there? ---
**Author:** ![Contrapuntal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e274bd/32.png) [@Contrapuntal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Contrapuntal)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2006, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659/14 "2006-11-25T17:14:03Z")
[QUOTE=pseudotriton ruber ruber] How does it taste with a little added “esquire” shoved up there? [/QUOTE] Sadly, I can only rely on second hand acounts. Are you game? ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2006, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659/15 "2006-11-25T17:24:29Z")
[QUOTE=Contrapuntal] Sadly, I can only rely on second hand acounts. Are you game? [/QUOTE] Ya know, although I just finished noting the foul-tasting[things](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=7996704#post7996704) that have been inside my mouth, I think that may be just a touch too gamey for even me. ---
**Author:** ![Contrapuntal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e274bd/32.png) [@Contrapuntal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Contrapuntal)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2006, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dsyoung-shove-that-snark-up-your-esquire-ass/381659/16 "2006-11-25T17:32:54Z")
[QUOTE=pseudotriton ruber ruber] Ya know, although I just finished noting the foul-tasting[things](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=7996704#post7996704) that have been inside my mouth, I think that may be just a touch too gamey for even me. [/QUOTE] Ah, well. To paraphrase Bette Davis, science isn’t for sissies. Seconded on the rice milk. If it isn’t going to resemble the taste of the product it is imitating, why bother?