# Earliest presidential front-runner to become the party's nominee?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/earliest-presidential-front-runner-to-become-the-partys-nominee/733725>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [October 6, 2015, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/earliest-presidential-front-runner-to-become-the-partys-nominee/733725 "2015-10-06T15:33:45Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 3\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![NoCoolUserName](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5fc32e/32.png) [@NoCoolUserName](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NoCoolUserName)\
**Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/earliest-presidential-front-runner-to-become-the-partys-nominee/733725/1 "2015-10-06T15:33:45Z")

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In US politics–let’s limit it to the last 50 years–who and when was the early front runner the party’s actual pick to run for POTUS?

With all the talk about Trump & Bernie, I’m rather disappointed that no one (that I’ve heard) has said “but the early front runner never becomes the nominee/president.”

I’ve been thinking the whole time that Hillary and Jeb! haven’t been campaigning all that vigorously…those war chests are full and they’re saving themselves for the big push later, IMHO. But there’s only talk about how far ahead Trump is, and how Bernie is getting so close to Hillary.

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**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/earliest-presidential-front-runner-to-become-the-partys-nominee/733725/2 "2015-10-06T16:01:56Z")

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Let’s see, 50 years includes 1968 but excludes 1964.

These should be checked, but on the basis of memory, these are the early frontrunners who ultimately won their party’s nomination. I’ve excluded incumbent Presidents.

Nixon, 1968  
Mondale, 1984  
Bush, 1988  
Dole, 1996  
Bush, 2000  
Gore, 2000  
McCain, 2008  
Romney, 2012

What I’m seeing here is that the early frontrunner usually wins on the GOP side - the ‘it’s his turn’ thing - but usually doesn’t on the Dem side.

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**Author:** ![The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_wind_of_my_soul)\
**Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/earliest-presidential-front-runner-to-become-the-partys-nominee/733725/3 "2015-10-06T18:58:53Z")

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> [@NoCoolUserName](#):
>
> With all the talk about Trump & Bernie, I’m rather disappointed that no one (that I’ve heard) has said “but the early front runner never becomes the nominee/president.”

Just to clarify, would that argument be used to explain why Trump won’t be the nominee, or why Sanders would be? Or both? Just wondering since right now Trump is the early front runner, but Sanders isn’t.