# Early hydroxychloroquine associated with survival **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [May 5, 2020, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192 "2020-05-05T16:59:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/21 "2020-05-06T01:45:07Z")
> [@dogbutler](#): > > Because the Federal Government bought 290 million doses at the direction of the President, and have to do something with it? My town’s got plenty of potholes that need filling this spring. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/22 "2020-05-06T01:55:32Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > My town’s got plenty of potholes that need filling this spring. **Moderator Warning** You’ve already received one mod note. Quoting a moderated post essentially means making the same comment again. This is a warning for political commentary in QZ. **Moderator Instructions** Confine your comments to the medical aspects of this study. Refrain from further political comments in this thread. Colibri QZ Moderator ---
**Author:** ![icon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c6cbf5/32.png) [@icon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/icon)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/23 "2020-05-06T02:14:15Z")
The general issue with the paper is that the analysis method used is not one that works well with small populations, as is the case in this study. All they are using is admission and discharge data, which is fine but does not address any other kind of treatment that the patients might have received. In fact, they acknowledge that several other treatments were used in conjunction with HCQ. So which was the great factor, the use of HCQ or something else? As understanding of the disease increased, did other treatment changes increase positive outcomes? We do not know that all patients were admitted around the same time even though they all came from the same hospital. Additionally, if you look at the number of people treated (123) vs non-treated (43) you see that the control group is not that large meaning that a smaller number of people with a negative outcome affects the percentage of the non-treated group more significantly than in the people treated. As the PDF file says it is not peer-reviewed and therefore needs to be taken with a heavy dose of salt, because although the authors seem to have done their due diligence, someone with a good understanding of the type of methodology used might find problems that are not readily apparent. //i\ ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/24 "2020-05-06T03:11:19Z")
> [@DinoR](#): > > The FDA emergency approval for Remdesivir “allows the drug to be given to patients with COVID-19 only if they are severely ill — with blood oxygen levels at 94% or lower, or otherwise requiring supplemental oxygen.” ([Cite](https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/the-drug-remdesivir-got-emergency-use-clearance-from-the-fda-what-will-that-mean-for-treating-covid-19/ar-BB13AU9M)) Since this new test data shows statistically significant benefit where Remdesivir use is not approved, they might both end up being the standard of care. They would just be the standard for different stages in the progression of the disease. 94%? Are you sure of that number? I see it in the cite. There are a lot of people who would do well to see that number on a good day. One of the things they were doing in NYC was sending patients home with an oximeter so they could self monitor. I don’t know what the trigger number was but they had excellent results getting people back in the hospital in time for treatment. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/25 "2020-05-06T18:26:06Z")
I would be really interested in seeing the pre-trial paperwork in this study, especially with regards to stated endpoints. You ALWAYS need to define what you are looking for prior to the study. Otherwise these researchers may be cherry-picking data. It looks like they are only reporting improved outcomes in patients with mild diseases. How do they define mild and, more importantly, WHEN did they define mild. You aren’t allowed to define mild cases in a way that leads to the result you want to see. Some of the other data is so odd that I’m wondering if the language translation is correct. Was the death rate in the two groups really 48.8% and 22%? What’s with those misplaced commas? The other thing that concerns me is the use of the 800mg initial loading dose. Proponents of this drug claim its safety has been well proven based on it use in other conditions. But the therapeutic dose for other conditions is much lower - based on body weight but usually around 400mg. I think it is very risky to use this drug en masse at higher dosages, even though research indicates that much higher doses are needed to achieve an antiviral effect. I think this is the crux of the problems with HCQ. The preliminary research I have seen indicates that the dosage needed to achieve antiviral effect are much higher 4.5x to 17x - than the dosages used for autoimmune diseases. My cite for this is towards the end of this article, 3rd paragraph from the bottom. > **[Covid-19: VA Study Points to Increased Mortality with Hydroxychloroquine -...](https://www.physiciansweekly.com/covid-19-va-study-points-to-increased-mortality-with-hydroxychloroquine/)** > > Standard supportive care bested either HC alone or combined with azithromycin The much-touted hydroxychloroquine (HC) for treatment of patients with Covid-19, combined with or without azithromycin (AZ), not only may not help mitigate the virus’... This is common problem, perhaps the most common problem, in going from promising research to new medication. Quite frequently, you can’t reach an effective concentration inside the human body without risking the life of the patient. The Brazilian study that was discontinued for side effects was an attempt - the only one I’ve read about- to reach the dosages required for the observed in vitro antiviral effect. Frankly, I think it’s misleading and somewhat disingenuous to be publishing all these preprint articles and I think the general public has been deeply misled about the potential of this drug. I recommend reading Dr. Bright’s whistleblower complaint in full, our politicians were really pushing for some really irresponsible actions Please note I am not a doctor or medical professional and I welcome critiques from those that are. I do have a little bit of a layperson background in this, I became interested in clinical research while investigating treatments for my fiancée’s pancreatic cancer several years ago. I learned first-hand about how deceptive the promotion of some of these treatments can be. I also got plenty first hand experience in the psychology of desperation. I know how easy it is for even smart people to get sucked down into these rabbit holes. Smart people are even more vulnerable because they are used to winning and beating long odds to achieve success. After my fiancée’s inevitable death, I stuck around the support groups and helped people realistically analyze prospective treatments, and that is were I taught myself to interpret medical claims and clinical studies - there were medical professionals in these groups that checked my work, as it were. The other thing that everyone needs to remember is COVID is not cancer. It’s not a chronic disease. Even without pharmaceutical treatment, something like 95% of patients survive. I saw an indigent Twitter post yesterday claiming the drug was being suppressed even though it was 92% of the patients that took it were well 3 weeks later. That would be great stats for a cancer drug, but I just had to mention that it wasn’t impressive for a disease with a 95% survival rate, Everyone was so busy LOLing at the idea of the bleach treatment, even people promoting HCQ, but the actual evidence for HCQ isn’t that much stronger than the evidence for drinking bleach. I found eight first hand testimonials from people that claimed Chlorine dioxide (industrial bleach) cured them of COVID. I found videos promoting it from doctors with medical degrees and each of those quacks has several acolytes that also have medical degrees. I found clinical trial paperwork and protocols for chlorine dioxide treatment against COVID. (They’re like lawsuits, anyone can type one up and file it and they’re often used to lend legitimacy to studies that don’t deserve it). Anecdotal evidence really is worthless. Caveat Emptor. ---
**Author:** ![IvoryTowerDenizen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ivorytowerdenizen/32/17937_2.png) [@IvoryTowerDenizen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IvoryTowerDenizen)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/26 "2020-05-06T18:52:36Z")
Anyone else notice this statement at the top of the page in the OP’s link? “This version is not peer-reviewed” It’s a preprint, and hasn’t been peer reviewed. I’ll wait until it has. ---
**Author:** ![SingleMalt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/singlemalt/32/3961_2.png) [@SingleMalt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SingleMalt)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/27 "2020-05-06T19:26:57Z")
> [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > … > > Some of the other data is so odd that I’m wondering if the language translation is correct. Was the death rate in the two groups really 48.8% and 22%? What’s with those misplaced commas? > … Just to address this small issue in this well-expressed summary plus critique: Much of Europe uses a comma instead of a decimal point in numbers ("48,8%), and they use spaces as delimiters in large numbers (“1 000 000”). I believe that this is what you are referencing? The commas look odd to me, but I like the spaces in the big numbers. Excellent summary. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/28 "2020-05-06T20:01:53Z")
> [@IvoryTowerDenizen](#): > > Anyone else notice this statement at the top of the page in the OP’s link? > > “This version is not peer-reviewed” > > It’s a preprint, and hasn’t been peer reviewed. I’ll wait until it has. It also hasn’t been edited very well. It’s clear that the first language of the authors isn’t English. Despite a science background, I found it quite difficult to understand what they had done in places. This doesn’t invalidate their findings, but it makes it harder to know what they mean. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/29 "2020-05-06T21:59:17Z")
> [@SingleMalt](#): > > Just to address this small issue in this well-expressed summary plus critique: > > Much of Europe uses a comma instead of a decimal point in numbers ("48,8%), and they use spaces as delimiters in large numbers (“1 000 000”). I believe that this is what you are referencing? > > The commas look odd to me, but I like the spaces in the big numbers. > > Excellent summary. Thanks! I probably would’ve been less confused about the comma for decimal point thing if the underlying numbers made any sense, but…an almost 50% death rate in the non HQC group? That’s so totally whacked I thought the comma might mean something else. Something’s really off with that. They really shouldn’t release these preprints to the public. ---
**Author:** ![Tigers2B1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc29f/32.png) [@Tigers2B1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tigers2B1)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/30 "2020-05-06T23:02:14Z")
It appears that the University of Minnesota data is in. This was a randomized double-blind trial. The Doctor who’s is heading that study tweeted this - some good answers on hydroxychloroquine should be forthcoming soon. > ---
**Author:** ![Tigers2B1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc29f/32.png) [@Tigers2B1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tigers2B1)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/31 "2020-05-06T23:06:01Z")
> [@Tigers2B1](#): > > It appears that the University of Minnesota data is in. This was a randomized double-blind trial. The Doctor who’s is heading that study tweeted this - some good answers on hydroxychloroquine should be forthcoming soon. > > [https://mobile.twitter.com/boulware\_dr/status/1257984132447117313](https://mobile.twitter.com/boulware_dr/status/1257984132447117313) And this > ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/32 "2020-05-06T23:28:34Z")
Tell me what it says without me having to click a link. Summarize, even. Quote a thing or two. Jaysus. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/33 "2020-05-06T23:32:41Z")
Here’s this thing some guy said. > **[Craig Hodges blasts Michael Jordan for discussing 'traveling cocaine circus'...](https://sports.yahoo.com/michael-jordan-craig-hodges-the-last-dance-cocaine-circus-nba-013452415.html)** > > Jordan's former Bulls teammate had some issues with the handling of "The Last Dance." Can you see why that’s a less than helpful way to post? ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/34 "2020-05-06T23:35:52Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > Tell me what it says without me having to click a link. Summarize, even. Quote a thing or two. Jaysus. It says nothing. The tweets in question. > [@](#): > > May 6 and we are to perform an interim analysis of 2 of our 3 #COVID clinical trials this afternoon. It is a double blind trial, **so I have not seen any results by the two groups** (#hydroxychloroquine vs. Placebo) as yet. > > I am aware of the pooled results. Safety has been good. > [@](#): > > \*\*What am I going to post later today? Likely nothing. \*\* The #COVID #research interim analysis will most likely be kept confidential for now, working on further analyses and writing up the results in detail versus releasing something half-baked. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/35 "2020-05-06T23:55:02Z")
Holy fucking shit. It says nothing, indeed. Thanks, Coach. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2020, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/36 "2020-05-07T00:06:35Z")
> [@Tigers2B1](#): > > It appears that the University of Minnesota data is in. This was a randomized double-blind trial. The Doctor who’s is heading that study tweeted this - some good answers on hydroxychloroquine should be forthcoming soon. > > [https://mobile.twitter.com/boulware\_dr/status/1257984132447117313](https://mobile.twitter.com/boulware_dr/status/1257984132447117313) > [@Tigers2B1](#): > > And this > [https://mobile.twitter.com/boulware\_dr/status/1257984140789628928](https://mobile.twitter.com/boulware_dr/status/1257984140789628928) **Moderator Instructions** I’m going to instruct you to at least summarize the links you post. I agree those links say virtually nothing. You’re now edging into promoting unproven treatments rather than simply providing information on studies. Colibri General Questions Moderator ---
**Author:** ![Tigers2B1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc29f/32.png) [@Tigers2B1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tigers2B1)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2020, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/37 "2020-05-07T02:32:25Z")
Regarding the tweets above – An independent review board is going to do an interim review of the University of Minnesota hydroxychloroquine study. At that time a decision may be made to stop the study and publish the results. This can be done if a decision is made that would be unethical to continue giving the control arm of the study placebo. So we may results of the study soon. The remdesivir study was stopped early this way. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2020, 6:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/38 "2020-05-07T06:26:48Z")
Twitter is the best place to look for peer reviewed scientific papers. CMC fnord! ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2020, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/39 "2020-05-07T13:47:30Z")
[FDA cautions against use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine for COVID-19 outside of the hospital setting or a clinical trial due to risk of heart rhythm problems.](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-cautions-against-use-hydroxychloroquine-or-chloroquine-covid-19-outside-hospital-setting-or) Threads like this are potentially dangerous. ---
**Author:** ![Eva\_Luna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e495f1/32.png) [@Eva\_Luna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eva_Luna)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2020, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192/40 "2020-05-07T15:36:11Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > [FDA cautions against use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine for COVID-19 outside of the hospital setting or a clinical trial due to risk of heart rhythm problems.](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-cautions-against-use-hydroxychloroquine-or-chloroquine-covid-19-outside-hospital-setting-or) > > Threads like this are potentially dangerous. One would hope that doctors would not prescribe it in situations where its use is unwarranted or dangerous. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-hydroxychloroquine-associated-with-survival/853192.md?page=3)