# Early Super Bowl Pick Time #4! **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [January 1, 2007, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354 "2007-01-01T23:31:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![microbubble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac8455/32.png) [@microbubble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/microbubble)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2007, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/21 "2007-01-02T16:44:24Z")
SuperBowl XLII pick:(a full year in advance!). PHI Eagles 24 NAS Titans 17 ---
**Author:** ![brewha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@brewha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brewha)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2007, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/22 "2007-01-02T17:04:14Z")
I’ll go with **Chargers** over the **Bears**. 14 - 3. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2007, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/23 "2007-01-02T18:16:21Z")
The trendy pick is the Chargers vs. the Saints. Someone’s gotta be a loser, and it’s going the be the Chargers. Ravens over the Saints, both feel-good stories go down in flames as the Ravens contain Brees and the passing to a score of 24-13 ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2007, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/24 "2007-01-15T02:21:17Z")
Wha-oops – I neglected to update this thread after Wild Card Weekend. Let’s patch that up: Eliminated on Wild Card Weekend: **Hal Briston** – Giants 38, Chargers 23 **MadTheSwine** – Ravens 42, Cowboys 10 **What Exit?** – Giants 24, Jets 20 **Frosted Glass** – Saints 24, Jets 21 **Martin Sable** – Patriots 24, Cowboys 17 Ok…now that we’ve got the _complete_ losers out of the way, here’s who dropped off this weekend: Eliminated on Divisional Championship Weekend: **flickster** – Chargers 35, Eagles 21 **neutron star** – Eagles 24, Chargers 21 **Kiros** – Patriots 24, Eagles 17 **Oakminster** – Saints 31, Ravens 27 **Least Original User Name Ever** – Ravens 24, Saints 13 **BrattiAtti** – Patriots 32, Seahawks 24 **Jackknifed Juggernaut** – Chargers 21, Bears 9 **brewha** – Chargers 14, Bears 3 **microbubble** – Chargers 24, Bears 0 **jackelope** – Chargers 38, Saints 17 **garygnu** – Chargers 34, Saints 30 **hajario** – Chargers 27, Bears 17 **633squadron** – Chargers 38, Saints 7 There were quite a few left until the Pats upset the Chargers…that knocked another seven players out of the running, and left the field pretty damn thin: Still Alive: **Gadarene** – Patriots 26, Saints 17 **Grits and Hard Toast** – Saints 41, Colts 38 Which means that for the second year in a row, we’ll have our winner two weeks before the Super Bowl even takes place – it’s all going to be a matter of who wins the AFC Championship game between the Patriots and the Colts. Good luck to you both\*! \*\*\*\*\*and by “both”, I mean **Grits and Hard Toast**. Nothing personal, **Gadarene** …I’m just sick of the fucking Patriots and a Colts/Saints Super Bowl would be a kick-ass game. ---
**Author:** ![Sal\_Ammoniac](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/8dc957/32.png) [@Sal\_Ammoniac](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sal_Ammoniac)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2007, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/25 "2007-01-15T18:00:18Z")
[QUOTE=Hal Briston] Still Alive: **Gadarene** – Patriots 26, Saints 17 **Grits and Hard Toast** – Saints 41, Colts 38 Which means that for the second year in a row, we’ll have our winner two weeks before the Super Bowl even takes place – it’s all going to be a matter of who wins the AFC Championship game between the Patriots and the Colts. Good luck to you both\*! [/QUOTE] What if it’s Bears-Colts? (Not impossible, just unthinkable.) ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2007, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/26 "2007-01-15T22:34:38Z")
Then the winner will be **Grits and Hard Toast** , who picked the Colts. If the Saints lose next weekend, then neither finalist will have a shot a being completely correct, but **GaHT** will have come the closest. Bascially, this will be decided by the AFC Championship game. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2007, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/27 "2007-01-15T23:33:13Z")
[QUOTE=Hal Briston] Then the winner will be **Grits and Hard Toast** , who picked the Colts. If the Saints lose next weekend, then neither finalist will have a shot a being completely correct, but **GaHT** will have come the closest. Bascially, this will be decided by the AFC Championship game. [/QUOTE] If it’s Bears-Colts, then someone who picked Bears-Chargers will be just as correct as someone who picked Saints-Colts, right? ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2007, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/28 "2007-01-16T02:35:54Z")
Not when the Chargers have already been eliminated. I mean, I understand your angle, but sorry, no, you’re out of the running. No fabulous cash prizes for you this season. ---
**Author:** ![Grits\_and\_Hard\_Toast](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a183cd/32.png) [@Grits\_and\_Hard\_Toast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grits_and_Hard_Toast)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2007, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/29 "2007-01-16T02:58:03Z")
[QUOTE=Hal Briston] Still Alive: **Gadarene** – Patriots 26, Saints 17 **Grits and Hard Toast** – Saints 41, Colts 38 Which means that for the second year in a row, we’ll have our winner two weeks before the Super Bowl even takes place – it’s all going to be a matter of who wins the AFC Championship game between the Patriots and the Colts. Good luck to you both\*! \*\*\*\*\*and by “both”, I mean **Grits and Hard Toast**. Nothing personal, **Gadarene** …I’m just sick of the fucking Patriots and a Colts/Saints Super Bowl would be a kick-ass game. [/QUOTE] Thank you very much! It was funny, when I made my original pick of Saints and Colts, and then saw no one else had chosen the Colts, I almost made my most common mistake when handicapping horse races. At the races I often find a horse I love at reasonable odds. Then at post time, I see my pick’s odds have gone WAY up. I should think, “Great, if my horse wins I win a bundle!,” instead I think, “Man, what is it eveyone else can see that I am missing? What is wrong with this horse?” Then if I don’t bet him he wins, making me crazy, and if I do bet him, he comes in DFL and I kick myself for not switching because there obviously was something wrong with him. So this time I resisted the urge, I went with my gut; the colts reminding me this year of an Elway Bronco team, pulling out a win in a wildcard game and getting to the Bowl only to lose. (I see now I was much kinder to the Colts with regards to the final score, when the Broncos would lose, it was usually a blowout) Had I switched, it would have been to the Pats, so I am really, really, hoping for my handicapping future’s sake that the Colts pull off the win and I can stop my self from second guessing unpopular choices. Should the Pat’s win, then I will know I should have switched, and I am doomed as a handicapper. What do you mean this is only a game??? Anyway, thanks for the well wishes and having the contest. And congrats and good luck to Gadarene as well. ---
**Author:** ![saoirse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5daacb/32.png) [@saoirse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/saoirse)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2007, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/30 "2007-01-16T03:03:29Z")
[QUOTE=Sal Ammoniac] What if it’s Bears-Colts? (Not impossible, just unthinkable.) [/QUOTE] I thought it. **Colts 27, Bears 24** You heard it here first. ---
**Author:** ![kayT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayt/32/3633_2.png) [@kayT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayT)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2007, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/31 "2007-01-16T03:12:28Z")
Close **Saoirse** but it’s Bears 27, Colts 24. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2007, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/32 "2007-01-16T03:16:49Z")
[QUOTE=Hal Briston] Not when the Chargers have already been eliminated. I mean, I understand your angle, but sorry, no, you’re out of the running. No fabulous cash prizes for you this season. [/QUOTE] Your game, your rules. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2007, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/33 "2007-01-16T04:46:25Z")
Hmmm… can I get back to you guys in a week or so? ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2007, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/34 "2007-01-22T03:54:31Z")
Aaaaand, we’re done – congratulations go out to **Grits and Hard Toast** , winner of the 4th Annual Early Super Bowl Pick-Off! Interesting to note – **GaHT** was the only entrant to pick the Colts, and there were four players who picked the Bears. However, all five of these players picked that team to lose in the Super Bowl. Perhaps I’ll update this in two weeks to reflect who came closest to the actual result, keeping in line with **hajario** ’s way of thinking. Unofficially, of course. 🙂 (note to self: Next year, remember to bump the thread closer to Wild Card Weekend…more players = more of a chance of someone picking _both_ teams.) ---
**Author:** ![Oslo\_Ostragoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a9a28c/32.png) [@Oslo\_Ostragoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oslo_Ostragoth)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2007, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/35 "2007-01-22T06:06:52Z")
[QUOTE=Sal Ammoniac] What if it’s Bears-Colts? (Not impossible, just unthinkable.) [/QUOTE] Blasphemy, sir. Pistols at dawn? ---
**Author:** ![Grits\_and\_Hard\_Toast](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a183cd/32.png) [@Grits\_and\_Hard\_Toast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grits_and_Hard_Toast)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2007, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/36 "2007-01-22T18:44:17Z")
[QUOTE=Hal Briston] Aaaaand, we’re done – congratulations go out to **Grits and Hard Toast** , winner of the 4th Annual Early Super Bowl Pick-Off! Interesting to note – **GaHT** was the only entrant to pick the Colts, and there were four players who picked the Bears. However, all five of these players picked that team to lose in the Super Bowl. Perhaps I’ll update this in two weeks to reflect who came closest to the actual result, keeping in line with **hajario** ’s way of thinking. Unofficially, of course. 🙂 (note to self: Next year, remember to bump the thread closer to Wild Card Weekend…more players = more of a chance of someone picking _both_ teams.) [/QUOTE] Thank you Hal! At half time I would have bet on Gadarene, but somehow they pulled if off! Seems the only horses that I can bet on and win these days are “Colts.” That is interesting that all five that had picked one of the teams to actually make it to the bowl, picked that team as the loser of the bowl. That possibilty was why I figured you set the game up as you did, players eliminated once one of their teams were eliminated. Otherwise, who would be the winner? In this case, if the Colts should win the Superbowl, it would be easy, as only one person had them. But if the Bears win, of the four who had the Bears, which of them would win? If they had chosen the Bears to win the whole thing, you could use that score. But since they all had the Bears losing, those scores for a winning team look very odd now. I would think that Hajario at 17 would have the best shot. It would be hard to imagine the Bears winning with a score closer to 9, 3 or 0. Is there another way you had in mind to select a winner? I had also thought of replacing each player’s losing team with the actual winner, then using those scores, but that would be odd since all of us then would have a higher score with a team we didn’t pick. So I am just curious what would make the most sense if you were to do it the way Sal Ammoniac and Hajario mentioned? If all those that had one team make it were to compete, what scores and what winners would be used. It is sort of a puzzle to me, I think there is an answer that makes sense, but I don’t see it yet. Any ideas? Thanks again for having the contest. Always makes watching the playoffs more fun when your own team doesn’t get there but you can still have teams to root for. ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2007, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354/37 "2007-02-05T22:28:02Z")
I just wanted to bump this thread up one more time to give some props to **hajario**. While **Grits and Hard Toast** has already been declared the winner here, **hajario** brought up a point above that will probably bring about some changes in how we do this next year. **hajario** said “Chargers 27, Bears 17”. That means he correctly predicted a Bears loss, was dead on with the Bears’ score, and was only two points off on the winner’s score. Damn good call for being made pre-playoffs. Of course, this is all just for bragging rights, so it doesn’t matter much in the long run. Congrats to both of you. Oh yes, one more thing I wanted to bring back up: [QUOTE=Sal Ammoniac] What if it’s Bears-Colts? (Not impossible, just unthinkable.) [/QUOTE] [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/early-super-bowl-pick-time-4/386354.md?page=1)