Considering the number of times I’ve sniped people by a penny or a nickel on stuff in the fifty-plus dollar range, I think I can safely say your logic is broken. It’s not entirely busted, but it’s not quite right, either. You can confirm by looking at the closed items where it’s happened. Does it save me money? Not really. Even buying stuff worth $200 (about the highest I’ve ever gone), it’s only going to save me two bucks or so. It amuses the asshole in me, I guess.
If you put your bid in early, you do get a slight edge - if someone equals your bid, yours takes precedence (I have, incidentally, lost out to that, because some people have gotten wise to this and throw in the and-a-penny as insurance). But if you get outbid, even by a penny, the item goes to the guy who outbid you.
You own cite says that you can NOT snipe people by “a penny or a nickel on stuff in the fifty-plus dollar range”- you must beat their bid by at least $1.
And although indeed it will look like you are only outbid by a small amount, you can’t really tell. For example, if you place a bid of $50, and the dude after you wins and his bid is shown to be $51.01- he actually could have placed a “high bid” of $60 or so. That’s why it’s best to place your max bid in early, and don’t sweat being outbid. If you place your max bid in early- then you can NOT “lose” any auctions. It’s impossible. Yes, some dudes will be willing to pay a higher price than you were. So? * You didn’t want the item at that price.
*
The most successful eBay bidding strategy I’ve found is by bidding on the last day or a few hours before bidding ends. I always set my high bid to an odd random cent amount…$25.57 or $42.71 instead of $25 or $42, for example. There were numerous times when I beat out last minute snipers by no more than a few cents using that method.
There is no way to know how many bids are actually won by only the bid increment. The winning bidder doesn’t pay his/her highest bid—only one bid increment higher than the highest [losing] bidder. And since ebay doesn’t reveal the highest bid (only the winning bid), there is no easy wahy (I’m aware of) to determine how close the [potential] winning spread was.
If I bid $100, and next highest bidder was $50, I will win the auction at $51.(assuming $1 is the bid increment at that point) The $50 bidder has no idea that there was a lot more mileage in my bid. Maybe my high bid was $52; maybe it was $1000.
The only time it is plainly evident is when the winning margin is less than one bid increment. If I bid $50.01 and the next bidder was at $50, I will win at $50.01. Since I won with less than the bid increment, he knows my exact highest bid; and he’s likely frustrated by the very narrow margin of loss. If he loses by the bid increment, he doesn’t know if he lost by the bid increment or [potentially] several bid increments.
In my experience, I have never lost by less than the bid increment. On 3 occasions I have won by less than the bid increment—each time by less than a dollar. That’s 3 wins in about 200 auctions. In almost all wins, I had more money available.
I have never kept track as to how much higher I am typically willing to pay—vs what I actually paid. It would be an interesting thing to see.
That has not been my experience at all. In fact the opposite. In almost every auction that has many bidders there is some variation of “…for a bidder to bid, find that it isn’t enough, bid again a little higher-…” Almost every one! Have they “lost all reason?” Maybe not—in most instances I would say no. Has it increased the price the winning bidder will ultimately pay? You betcha!
So, in my experience it is not only not EXTREMELY rare, but EXTREMELY common for people to bid, learn their bid was too low, bid again, bid again, bid again…
I also looked at 54 closed auctions in my watch list that all had 10 bidders or more. One (1!) of them was won by the first bidder—in most cases the early bidders were flushed out by late bidders or snipers.
There is no way for me to know (or you I think…) if they won by the bid increment or multiple bid increments. As I said earlier, in 200 wins, I have won by only the bid increment less than 2% of the time. In almost every win, my bid had more legs. That may not be representative.
Agreed. But by "telegraphing’ my high bid to the world, and allowing people to probe my bid (and build up price tolerance in the meantime) I increase the competition and activity in the auction; and I increase my chance of either losing or paying a higher price.
My experience contradicts your assertions. I took your adivce and took a random sample of auctions. I literally picked anything, and stopped at auctions that were ending soon, and had multiple bids.
Here’s what I saw: Need a wall mounted water cooler?
In this auction, Williams3030 seems to have “probed” racefan130 to see where is high bid was. Alas, he found it! And, went one bid increment higher. Will racefan come back as a sniper? Maybe. Will racefan130 be forced to raise his bid if he wants it? For sure. Would Williams gotten to $120 anyway? Who knows? This much I know: Bidders routinely “probe” with higher and higher bids to see where the current high bid is. Does that help racefan130, or weeks.stephanie, the seller? It helps the seller. How 'bout a dinasour tooth?
btsi2002 put in a bid at 6:45 p.m., and another bid one minute later. Still, cephoid137 prevailed by virtue of a bid that was higher and 12 hours earlier. Less than one minte later, btsi2002 bid a third time, this time eclipsing cephoid137’s bid. Did cephoid137 benefit at all by bidding early? No. Was he hurt by it? Maybe not! If 137.50 is the highest he was willing to pay, than he should be OK with the result. Still, he/she afforded btsi2002 the luxury of probing the high bid and incrementally bid higher (within his price tolerance) . One can not say for sure that cephoid137 was hurt by bidding early—but we can say that he wasn’t helped by it. (vs bidding $137.50 in the last 30 seconds) In the meantime pres.roy jumped in. I don’t know how popular these items are, but I would imagine that some sniper is watching this auction. Need a Porshe to carry that tooth around in?
Here maroonchevy probed jorjosh sales 3 times before revealing jorjosh sales was at $24K. That’s 3 times in 7 minutes. Naturally jorjosh sales has to respond (if he wishes the car). Was jorjosh hurt? We can’t be sure. Maybe he would have been forced to respond to other bidders anyway. Still, he can’t be helped by this strategy at all—unless it’s a “tie” at the end. (and earlier bid wins) How likely is that? This auction has 49 minutes left. What is jorjosh sales just bid his highest amount with 30 seconds left. Would he be hurt? No. Did he help himself by showing his hand early? No way. He simply gave other bidders time to probe him and to respond. How about a Nikon D70?
Here too, minou3 bid 3 times in less than a minute to probe where 112546 highest price was. Did this help 112546? Or the seller? In what possible way (other than a “tie”) is 112546 helped by putting his high bid out there days in advance to be probed? None that I can see.
Those were the only auctions I looked at—and didn’t shop around for stuff like this. Look around! Pick any category. Find the auctions that have active bidding (10 or more) and are ending soon. This type of bidding is the norm.
But I’ve telgraphed my position and allwed time for other bidders to respond. I may still lose. But by telegraphing my highest bid, I increase the chance of either losing or paying too much.
I would guess that mosty items under $1000 are rarely won by only by the bid increment. I’d say the “edge” is largely an illusion and is more than offset by the higher prices and losses you’ll suffer along the way.
I don’t see how. If I do my research–and know the availaiblilty and common price I will not overbid—or underbid. (whether I snipe or not!) I put in my best price with 10 seconds to go. It takes me no more time or effort than any other bid. I typically set the clock with 3 minutes to go—go to the computer and snipe. it’s easy.
I went though the eBay categories. I picked the very first subcategory in each category and then the first item in each (which meant an auction ending very soon, of course). Of those 37 random picks, I found 3 (that’s 8%) where there were more than 10 bids. In each of those three, there was one dude who ran up the number of bids- and in each case it was a newbie with a maximum of 15 rating or less (and the other two had ratings of 0 with "sunglasses). And in each case, it was by “nibbling” not a real bidding war. Nibbling is an idiot tactic by newbies, where they place a bid, see that it isn’t eneough, then place another bid a “little higher”, then another, then another, and so forth. They don’t really understand that if you place a bid 100$ higher- the eBay Proxy system will bid for you up to exactly the amount you need to be the highest bidder.
So, there are very very few auctions that ever have 10+ bids in the first place. Thus, your sampling of auctions with more than 10 bids is a non-representative sample.
It is true that rarely do you win by the bid increment. I didn’t say it was common, in fact I suspect it’s rather rare. But here’s the point about the “bid increment”- if you bid early, and bid the maximum you want, then you have a tiny margin of insurance against being outbid “a penny or a nickel on stuff in the fifty-plus dollar range”. If you snipe you lose that. I’d guess that at around the $50 the “bid increment” helps you win maybe 5% of the time.
Yes, in about 8% of the auctions, your early max bid will lose to some newbie who “nibbles” away at your Proxy until he outbids you. So? He’s will to pay more for that item than you were.
With sniping you have the following disadvantages: lose the “bid increment” edge. Possible internet service provider or eBay outage at the last minute, causing your snipe to go awry (rare). Extra work, extra time spent, extra cost (in some cases). You have one advantage- beating out the newbie who "nibbles’ or a “bidding war” (and I saw exactly 0 real bidding wars).
The whole thing is- you can’t lose if you bid what you’re willing to pay. If you’re then outbid, you have lost nothing.
Sniping and other bidding strategies are all fallacies. But it’s normal to think that by some clever trick you can get a better buy, or you can “beat 'em”. However, there are no “clever tricks”- dudes simply delude themselves into thinking there are.
My “buyer rating” is nearly 400, BTW. (I am almost entirely a buyer). I have been on eBay since the early days, and several eBay consumer panels.
I know I won’t convince you- or any other sniper. You have to think there’s some clever trick to getting a better bargain. Nothing I can say will convince you. However, I do hope to convince the dudes who haven’t slipped into believing a fallacy yet. THERE ARE NO “TRICKS”. BID THE MAX YOU WANT TO PAY.
AHA!!! lol - I am such a dork. I’m a relative eBay newbie, and I’ve been beaten on a few bids where I suspected something like this was afoot. Thank you for confirming it for me
I bid twice. Once early with a low figure and once with my highest bid toward the end of the auction. I have a no-bid agreement with my friends so that we don’t get into a bidding war with each other. That gives the first bidder a clean shot at the item. If the bidding goes beyond the first bidder’s desired ceiling then an email goes out announcing a withdrawal.
Last minute bidding avoids any temptation to overbid by all parties concerned. Even if you have the resolve to walk away from something that you really want you cannot expect that from other bidders.
Personally I can usually walk away from something but I’ll admit to a couple of bidding wars that I’ve regretted. Which is why I bid at the last minute now.
There’s more than one way to skin a cat. I suspect you’re paying more, on average, than you have to.
I would like to clarify one thing: I don’t believe you’re putting words in my mouth, but I never said “trick” once, nor did I imply it sniping is “clever.” It is simply a strategy. It will almost NEVER cause you to “steal” an auction. You’re going to pay, in most cases, a reasonably fair price.
It is my experience, and my contention, that sniping will, over the long run, give you an incrementally lower purchasing price. In many other cases however, the price advantage is much greater. By not telegraphing your highest bid----or leaving it open to be probed—you will conceal your both your presence as a bidder, as well as the highest price you’re willing to pay. I can find no rationale that makes it an advantage (other than the extrememely rare “tie” advantage) to put that information out to the marketplace early.* None!* On the other hand…the element of surprise—in my experience—will often win auctions and more often than not with a lower price than if I had put that same bid in 2 days earlier----in which case the newbies will have been nibbling up my final cost. I agree that it is a newbie practice. *But ebay is full of them. *
The 4 cites I gave you—which were the only 4 I pulled up, (I didn’t shop for cites to make my point) there were “nibblers.” Those nibblers drive up the auction price. If my highest bid is $100—and I snipe maybe I pay $80. OTOH, if my $100 price was out there for 4 days those same nibblers would have:
Have me lose the auction. (as they nibbled to reveal my highest bid and eclipsed it)
Have me revise my price upwards, by re-bidding, and pay more. (Which as a non-newbie I will generally not do. My bid is my highest price–a one shot informed decision)
Have me simply pay more. (Instead of winning at $80 via sniping, I win at $92)
I think we both agree that doing your homework is the best approach, and; putting in one bid that represents your final and best offer. I don’t like bidding wars. Either as a winner or loser. (except when I’m a seller)
But I do not see any extra work in sniping. None. In 3 years one auction ended at 3:00 a.m. I wanted the item so I woke up, sniped it and won. in all other cases the process is the same. I check online prices from reputable dealers to get a benchmark. I apply my own ‘multiple.’ (ebay must be at least 30% less, or I’d rather buy from a well known online dealer. In some cases I’ll pay more for a well known ebay dealer, but in most cases ebay is cheaper than the online dealers) I check ebay sales history for that item, and I establish my bid price. That process is the same, whether I snipe or not. (I am a sniper about 90% of the time)
Lastly, the auctions I participate in in most cases have both "nibblers’ and at least 10 bids. That’s very common in my experience. The more the bids, the higher the price. It may not qualify as a “bidding war”, but more bids mean higher prices.
So, I agree, “THERE ARE NO “TRICKS”. BID THE MAX YOU WANT TO PAY.”
So, you use head dudes. **Bid the max you want to pay. **
I’d no idea what sniping was all about for a while either.
I bid on a book that I wanted and won, receiving a short while later an email telling me “SNIPE!!!1!!! retaliation!!!” etc etc. It turns out someone wanted the book for cheap (its been reprinted a few times) whereas I wanted it for the cover (70s cover being better IMO than the 90s reprint). So I was bidding knowing it would be more expensive than a copy in the shops today and the other bidder wanted it for less. It went for just under the cover price of the book today and at the last minute which made my “rival” suspect foul play.
In the event, it seems he would have stalked my bids or some such thing but I explained why I bid as I did and found out what sniping was
This is an incredibly puzzling post. Most of us OTOH are concerned about getting it for less than our max. price. Sniping helps manytimes in this regard with very little risk. (The post is, in fact, the standard seller’s glurge against sniping.)
Look: would you rather buy something for $25 or for $50? Sniping increases your chances of paying less with no increase in chances of paying more. That’s a big “Well duh.” concept.
I repeat. There’s a lot of dumb eBay buyers out there. Here’s my favorite example from a couple years ago: A guy has 3 exact copies of the same item up for bid on 3 consecutive days. (All listed at the same time.) The first one sells for more than the buy-it-now price! I buy the 2nd one for the minimum bid. The 3rd one doesn’t get any bids. There is no logic here. If one of the buyers on the first one just said: “Wait a second, instead of bidding more, I’ll just click on this other thing and get it for less right now!” (Which was my backup strategy in case I lost the bid on the 2nd one.) I would have been an idiot to bid my “maximum price” on any of them. Sniping is an excellent way to outsmart these kinds of idiots.
There is no “must have” concept for almost all buyers. If you don’t get it, you’ll live. Losing an auction isn’t the end of the world. There’ll be another one soon. But losing money is forever.
No, but it’s a common misconception that sniping is a 'trick" that will get you a lower price.
Of course you know that with the eBay proxy system, no one but you knows you Max bid- until and when someone outbids you.
And yes, a "nibbler’ coudl cause you to lose an auction- or drive up your price. In a pefect world where there are only two bidders- you and a naif nibbler, the fact that your bid isn’t shown until the last minute will protect you from said nibbler. But other bidders are there, and thus your secret snipe doesn’t mean anything to the nibbler. It is absolutely true that in the rare case it’s ONLY you vs a nibller/lowballer then sniping is the best strategy. But as we have seen- nibblers are newbies anyway, and rather rare. In my sample, only 8%.
We both agree that getting into a bidding war is foolish. Dudes- don’t do it.
As i have shown- sniping isn’t a way of getting stuff for less. Well- except for the very rare case when it’s just you vs a nibbler. But of the random sampling I hit- every single one of the nibbler auctions had at least 3 bidders, one of which was the “nibbler” responsible for driving up the price and also the number of bids. In those cases, sniping wouldn’t help. Nor would it have helped (from what I can see) on the other auctions.
I am sure it helps once in a while. But then- so does the edge you get from the bid increment.
Sniping is mostly pyschological- somehow dudes think that getting your bid in last wins the auction- whereas the HIGHEST bid wins the auction, not the last bid. Somehow it makes it “cool” that you “beat out” someone- whereas it’s wasn’t your timing, it was your amount. That self-same bid would have won the auction- in at least 92% of the time- even if placed right out in the open on day 1.
In fact, sometimes there’s a pyschological edge in having your bid there- it seems to stop lowballers from even placing a bid. Of course, we can’t know how often that happens, but I am sure it does. Does it happen more than 8% of the time? Or, since the bid increment will have the “day one” bidder win about 5% of the time- the “edge” by squatting would only have to be 3% of the time. Hmmm.
Of course, we can all find an auction where sniping seems to have helped. But my random sampling didn’t show any. Sure, it wasn’t a very large sample.
Snipe if you want to- if it makes you happy thinking that it’ll help- why not? Hye, have fun.
But still the best & easiest bidding policy is to place your Max bid once you see an item. Don’t nibble. Don’t get sucked into bidding wars. Don’t think “Damn, that dude won the auction by only 51 cents! If I had bid only a dollar more I would have got it!”- that’s a fallacy as you don’t know how much his MAX bid was over yours- it could have been by twenty dollars, who knows? If you find sniping fun- go ahead- just don’t think it’s going to save you a lot of money.
I have noticed, both in my items sold and in those where I have participated as a bidder, it is very common for someone who has been outbid and left behind early in the process to return and increase their maximum bid - presumably as a direct response to seeing that they have been outbid. In this particular case, the person who outbid them would have more likelihood of winning the auction if he had outbid them leaving them no time to react (i.e. if he had sniped the item).
It doesn’t matter so much if there are lots of people interested in the item, but if there are only a couple, then sniping means you’re less likely to fall foul of someone who has no firm or fixed idea of what is their maximum bid.
I believe that there’s an inconsistency here. The following:
is, to me, spot on true (except for the first sentence which is very, very bad advice*). Waaay too many people get into that “if I had only bid a dollar more” mentality. These are also the main group of people against whom sniping works!
So I don’t get the point. Sniping is indeed all about psychology. But their psychology. They think poorly, act poorly, therefore you can do better against them. (And for the upteemth time: the goal is a low price, not winning a particular item.) So what is the downside to sniping (except to the seller)? The worst that can happen is that you lose by a fraction of an increment, which as DrDeth points out is not anything to think twice about. Go on to the next auction of the item.
And there are tons of “tricks”, aka “smart bidding strategies” out there. I am constantly amazed at the stupid stuff I see on eBay all the time. (Like the example in my previous post.)
Look, there are multiple sales of the same item all the time. You probably don’t want to bid on all of them, unless you actually want all of them, do you? Bidding immediately on every single one of them is almost certainly Not A Good Thing. So you really have to wait in almost all situations.
If I had followed DrDeth’s advice on the example I gave in my previous post, I would have ended up paying over twice as much by getting into a bidding war over the first of 3 identical items!!
Oh wait, that’s wrong. I would have ended up buying all three of them even though I only needed one!!!
Umm- No. You would have bid just once, on one of them, and you would have bid what you were willing to pay- which I assume is what you did (except you sniped instead of bidding then, I assume?). If you follow my advice- you would NOT get into a “bidding war”- you can’t get into a bidding war if you bid once at the price you’re willing to pay. You would have picked one of the three, and bid your max that you were willing to pay. I have no idea how on earth you get “getting into a bidding war” or “buying all three” out of "bid once at your Max bid". Note that word “once”. Geez.
Sellers are no more or less happy to get a snipers $51 as a Proxy bidder’s $51. Although, I guess seeing an early bid does give them some piece of mind. Oh wait- and it also does something else- it generally prevents them from ending an auction early 'because there’s no bids" and selling to some lowballer who sent them an email asking them to do just that. And- that does happen. Of course- you might have had a snipe all set up for $51- but the seller doesn’t know that. Of course, it is true that there is the other side of the coin- the VERY rare seller who has a shill bidding on his stuff. That happens too.
Hey, if sniping makes you happy and gives you a feeling of having "put one over’ then fine. Do it. But it doesn’t save you money over proxy bidding.
See, that takes into account greed or the feeling someone must win at all costs, what EBay thrives on. If everyone bid rationally according to how much they can afford and nothing else, then that would be fine. But its just not like that IMO.
Actually, you didn’t show us. You told us. We remain unconvinced.
It is possible that we troll in differnt ebay waters. In almost every auction, that I participate in, there are what you call, “nibblers.”
I am also baffled at your assertion that the “nibbler” effect only applies when it is you and a solitary nibbler. That doesn’t make any sense to me. It also doesn’t make any sense that the effect is completely mitigated if there is less than 10 bidders. I just don’t understand that at all.
Any bidder who “probes” the high bid with multiple bids to try and discern the amount of the high bid, raises the costs for all bidders, whether that is one bidder or 50.
Wrong!
The HIGHEST bid at the end----The Highest Last Bid wins.
You have asserted that 92% of auctions have 10 bidders or less. I think that is largely irrelevent, but even then my experience is that most auctions (without a “buy it now” provision) have 10 bidders or more. In the auctions I participate in, the number is 75+% I would imagine, and for some items it consistently is 100% of the time.
In any event, if we define a “nibbler” as someone who puts in more than one bid in an auction—and many times multiple bids in a few minute time frame—I think the average ebayer will find that most autions have bidders who bid more than once in the same auction.
It’s certainly a lot more than 8%.
I love proxy bidders! I hate snipers! There may be a perceived pyschological edge in terms of chasing away the low ballers, but for the sniper the adrenaline is flowing. Your proxy bid shows up as a target on my computer screen.
I can find around 200…
Agreed! “Nibbling” helps only the seller. Do your homework—and know what it is worth and what you’re willing to pay. Bid once. Bid the maximum you’re willing to pay. Just don’t telegraph your intentions 3 days early.
I believe it saves money a fair amount of the time, but not always. (largely because of other snipers) Sometimes it saves a lot.
I think we all agree that “nibbling” or “bidding wars” etc help the seller. I think we all agree that one informed bid, which represents your highest offer. is the best strategy.
I simply believe that people are irrational. I believe it is apparent if you watch the average auction. And I think that irrational behavior manifests itself in most auctions by having the same bidder bidding more than once. I believe that [early] proxy bidding gives the Philistines a benchmark from which to bid against/towards and that benchmark ultimately raises the cost to the eventual winner.
Do I think sniping allows me to “steal” an auction? Rarely. Do I think it will stop a determined proxy bidder who has a high proxy bid? No, unless I want to over pay. Does sniping allow me to surprise other bidders? All the time! Do I believe that my overall costs are lower due to sniping? Yep, sometimes it is a small amount, sometimes a larger amount.
In the end, we agree on almost all points. I actually like and use proxy bidding—in the last 15 seconds of an auction. I rarely pay my maximum bid—proxy bidding reduces my bid to one bid increment over the current bidder.
It doesn’t. However, when a nibbler has someone else to nibble at, then he has an effect. If he has no one to nibble at, then he has almost no effect. What I am saying is that a nibbler will have a significant effect on an auction even if there is only one other bidder- the fact that there may be several other bidders doesn’t mean a lot.
I bid $50 on day one- you bid $50 in the last second- I win. I bid $51 on day one. You bid $51.99 in the last few seconds. I still win.
The highest bidder wins, no matter when he places his bid.
**I ** did a random sampling. Most auctions seem to have only one bidder. So, I did do a random statistical “scientific” sampling. (Although I admit the sample size might not be large enough for a really valid result). Your results are based upon observations- which are biased as dudes tend to only remember those which support their bias.
