# Economic analyses of Obama/Romney plans **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 1, 2012, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592 "2012-11-01T17:20:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/1 "2012-11-01T17:20:52Z")
These were done by a friend of mine. This is an analysis comparing Obama and Romney’s tax policies — [An analyst's perspective: What Will Mitt Romney Do To My Taxes?](http://arbitanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/10/what-will-mitt-romney-do-to-my-taxes.html) This is an analysis showing that the U.S. economy is in a solid recovery under Obama — [An analyst's perspective: The US economy in 13 charts](http://arbitanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-us-economy-in-13-charts.html) ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/2 "2012-11-01T17:29:30Z")
That ‘debt growth as a percent of GDP’ is worth much more than the proverbial 1000 words. That chart should be everywhere. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/3 "2012-11-01T17:44:46Z")
How dishonest is it to say that wages are increasing without regard for inflation. That’s just insulting. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/4 "2012-11-01T17:51:55Z")
> [@bup](#): > > That ‘debt growth as a percent of GDP’ is worth much more than the proverbial 1000 words. That chart should be everywhere. Congress spends money. Republicans controlled the House from the mid 90s to mid 00s. It would be more honest to color the graph to accurately reflect which party was spending. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/5 "2012-11-01T18:04:29Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > Congress spends money. Republicans controlled the House from the mid 90s to mid 00s. It would be more honest to color the graph to accurately reflect which party was spending. The budget trends much more closely track which party controlled the White House, not which controlled 1 or both houses of congress. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/6 "2012-11-01T18:26:09Z")
I think one of the most important figures is that austerity as practiced by Republican governments at the state level is one of the significant things preventing a faster recovery. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/7 "2012-11-01T20:07:31Z")
> [@bup](#): > > The budget trends much more closely track which party controlled the White House, not which controlled 1 or both houses of congress. The four highest deficits over a four year period are during times when the House was controlled by Democrats according to that graph. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/8 "2012-11-01T20:29:16Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > The four highest deficits over a four year period are during times when the House was controlled by Democrats according to that graph. Well, first, you’re wrong - the house was Republican for the first two years of Bush 43’s second term. Second, [Try this graph, that allows one to see by year.](http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:US_Debt_Trend.svg&page=1) Clinton had two years of Democratic congress (his first two) and the debt was already slowing down. Bush 43 started skyrocketing immediately, even though he had Republican congresses for _6_ of his 8 years in the White House. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/9 "2012-11-01T20:37:41Z")
> [@Acsenray](#): > > I think one of the most important figures is that austerity as practiced by Republican governments at the state level is one of the significant things preventing a faster recovery. I realize the author made this claim, but his data in chart 7 doesn’t support his conclusion. I see only a modest decrease in government when compared to other sectors. Also, health and education workers increased. State government are largely responsible for education hiring, right? Also the unemployment rate for government workers was 4.3% in September according to [page](http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf) 25. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/10 "2012-11-01T20:50:34Z")
> [@bup](#): > > Well, first, you’re wrong - the house was Republican for the first two years of Bush 43’s second term. Second, > [Try this graph, that allows one to see by year.](http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:US_Debt_Trend.svg&page=1) > Clinton had two years of Democratic congress (his first two) and the debt was already slowing down. > > Bush 43 started skyrocketing immediately, even though he had Republican congresses for _6_ of his 8 years in the White House. No my statement was correct. The four highest four year periods were: 2005-2009 18.2%\* 1989-1993 13% 1981-1985 11.3% 1985-1989 9.3% The Democratic party controlled the House during each of these periods. \*Rep first two years and Dem last 2 ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/11 "2012-11-01T21:07:55Z")
I can make the claim “the four highest four year periods were during Republican administrations” without using an asterisk to tweak a part of the statement that’s not accurate. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/12 "2012-11-01T22:13:09Z")
> [@bup](#): > > I can make the claim “the four highest four year periods were during Republican administrations” without using an asterisk to tweak a part of the statement that’s not accurate. I realize you may swoon over executive power but that’s not how the government works, bup. Even if you want to get pedantic, the sentence still isn’t false. The Democrats did hold control o the house during that period just not the entire time ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/13 "2012-11-01T22:27:43Z")
There’s no reason to get all theoretical about it. We can just go policy by policy. **WillFarnaby** , for each policy, indicate whether you think the Republicans, Democrats, or both are responsible, and whether the policy in question increased or decreased the deficit: Medicare Part D The Iraq War The Bush Tax Cuts The 1993 Budget The Stimulus The $700 billion bank bailout Cutting defense spending in the 1990s Increasing defense spending in the 2000s Obamacare That seems like a good start. Feel free to propose other policies that significantly increased or decreased the deficit. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/14 "2012-11-01T22:49:32Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > There’s no reason to get all theoretical about it. We can just go policy by policy. **WillFarnaby** , for each policy, indicate whether you think the Republicans, Democrats, or both are responsible, and whether the policy in question increased or decreased the deficit Medicare Part D- disastrous Republican add on to a very expensive Democratic idea The Iraq War-major Republican mistake but Democrats were sheep The Bush Tax Cuts- Republican The 1993 Budget- not sure The Stimulus- Democratic The $700 billion bank bailout-Major failure of both parties Cutting defense spending in the 1990s- not sure Increasing defense spending in the 2000s- major failure of both parties but I’ll assign 2/3 of it to Republicans Obamacare- Democratic Social Security- Democratic Medicare-Democratic Corporate Welfare- both parties I’m not trying to say Republicans are fiscal hawks, but to point to a silly graph colored blue and red and beat your chest saying the democrats are fiscally responsible is crazy. Both parties have compromises their way into quite a mess. A reasonable person could say something like “the only thing worse than an all Republican government is the pairing of a Republican president with Democratic Congress.” ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/15 "2012-11-01T23:30:54Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > A reasonable person could say something like “the only thing worse than an all Republican government is the pairing of a Republican president with Democratic Congress.” You can say it, but the way to actually analyze that claim is to examine who is responsible for the policies that most impacted the deficit. It’s not hard to do, in most cases. No one seriously thinks that anyone but the Bush White House is responsible for the Iraq War, for example. And remember that the cost of that war is not just the billions in direct appropriations, but also veteran care and all the rest. When you do that, as we just did a small sample of, you find that it tends to be Republicans (Congress and White House) increasing the deficit. Now, if you want to include the New Deal and Great Society, then so be it. You can indeed pin the origination of the country’s chief budget-busters on Democrats. But while that says something useful about Democrats through 1976, it doesn’t say much about the last four decades or what the parties are likely to do going forward. You’ll note that the CBO thinks Obamacare will decrease the deficit. Quibble all you like, but that isn’t just assumption-making. Obamacare actually sought to offset the cost of subsidizing insurance by implementing the kind of taxes that economists like (the ones that disincentivize the stuff we don’t want), and by putting in place mechanisms to curb the #1 cause of our long-term deficits: Medicare spending. ---
**Author:** ![autish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ce7236/32.png) [@autish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/autish)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/16 "2012-11-02T00:09:26Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > Medicare Part D- disastrous Republican add on to a very expensive Democratic idea > The Iraq War-major Republican mistake but Democrats were sheep > The Bush Tax Cuts- Republican > The 1993 Budget- not sure > The Stimulus- Democratic > The $700 billion bank bailout-Major failure of both parties > Cutting defense spending in the 1990s- not sure > Increasing defense spending in the 2000s- major failure of both parties but I’ll assign 2/3 of it to Republicans > Obamacare- Democratic > > Social Security- Democratic > Medicare-Democratic > Corporate Welfare- both parties > > I’m not trying to say Republicans are fiscal hawks, but to point to a silly graph colored blue and red and beat your chest saying the democrats are fiscally responsible is crazy. Both parties have compromises their way into quite a mess. A reasonable person could say something like “the only thing worse than an all Republican government is the pairing of a Republican president with Democratic Congress.” It isn’t actually about whether Democrats are more responsible, but whether the GOP claim that they are fiscally responsible is valid. I am about to express an opinion that is nearly impossible to prove, but if you think about it, it should sort of make sense. While Presidents don’t decide budgets, they do negotiate it with Congress. You can’t seriously argue that Reagan, Clinton, Bush had nothing to do the budgets during their Presidencies. OK, so, if budgets are negotiated then what we need to examine is the dynamic between the President and Congress. In general, the GOP wants lower taxes and more defense. Dems want more benefits. If the President is Dem then the GOP in the House/Senate curtail the President’s inclination to spend by demanding “fiscal responsibility” - short hand in this case for limited propensity to raise taxes. If the President is GOP then: (a) Tax cuts are hugely popular so dems defer, (b) wars and defense spending are hugely patriotic, so dems defer, and (c) Congressional spending that manages to still make their way to the President are hugely popular, so the President defers. In effect, there are no Congressional checks with GOP Presidents. That’s what is being reflected here. Let’s be honest. If the GOP was serious about balanced budgets the budget under GOP Presidents would have been balanced. However, what the GOP really wants is lower taxes and that is why GOP Presidents have had dramatic impact on deficits - i.e. usually increasing it. ---
**Author:** ![autish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ce7236/32.png) [@autish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/autish)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/17 "2012-11-02T01:05:07Z")
Here is a more recent post at the blog that discusses the cause of the deficit: > **[Who is responsible for the deficit?](http://arbitanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/11/who-is-responsible-for-deficit.html)** > > One of the much debated questions is who is really responsible for the ballooning deficit.  Here are some charts that should help explain h... It gets to the question of who really caused the mess 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/18 "2012-11-02T02:18:12Z")
Interesting of you to hand wave SS and Medicare like the Dems don’t live and die by them still. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/19 "2012-11-02T02:18:44Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > Interesting of you to hand wave SS and Medicare like the Dems don’t live and die by them still. Is your position that the GOP wants to end SS and Medicare? ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592/20 "2012-11-02T02:30:29Z")
**Autish** what you say makes sense. I’m just trying to point out that the mess is 100% bipartisan. The Dems had the house for damn near a half century. To absolve them of guilt is dishonest. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economic-analyses-of-obama-romney-plans/639592.md?page=2)