# Economists predicted 235,000 new jobs for July, it was 32,000 **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 6, 2004, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659 "2004-08-06T19:18:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2004, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/1 "2004-08-06T19:18:21Z")
Ok, I admit I’m not an economist, the beef I have here is that a blind orangutan, throwing darts at a list numbers, had just as good a chance of beating these current crop of economists. (I think I remember someone did set up an ape with a dartboard, and the ape did beat the market!) But, what happens when the people that are supposed to have better tools screw the prediction so bad? > **[Home Page - MarketWatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/)** > > MarketWatch provides the latest stock market, financial and business news. Get stock market quotes, personal finance advice, company news and more. > [@](#): > > The 235,000 consensus > > As usual, economists’ forecasts for the nonfarm payroll figures are all over the map. The average forecast calls for a gain of 235,000 in July after an increase of just 112,000 in June, according to a survey of 35 economists conducted by CBS MarketWatch. > > The job growth forecasts range from 100,000 to 300,000; most are between 220,000 to 260,000. Payroll growth has averaged about 210,000 in the first six months of the year, following more than two years of job losses or weak gains. > > Early in the week, traders were persuaded there would be a strong payroll report, perhaps hitting 300,000. But the Institute for Supply Management indexes pointed to downside risks. The ISM’s nonmanufacturing employment index fell to 50 percent in July, the lowest level since last September. > > Nobody trusts the ISM nonmanufacturing index completely, but no one can afford to ignore it either. That last paragraph deserves a: 😕 > [@](#): > > Optimistic case > > The case for a big gain in payrolls in July rests on several factors having to do with how the survey is constructed, according to Andrew Tilton, an economist for Goldman Sachs. Despite its bearish forecast for growth in the second half, Goldman Sachs is sticking with its 300,000 forecast for July payrolls. > > Others are equally optimistic. “Friday’s crucial U.S. nonfarm payroll report for July is expected to rebound from June’s lackluster 112,000 increase,” said Douglas Porter, economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns. “We look for a gain of 288,000.” > > Porter figures June’s gains were held down artificially by the national day of mourning for former president Ronald Reagan during the survey week. > > July’s payrolls could be pushed higher artificially because the June and July survey weeks were separated by five weeks, rather than the typical four, Porter said. Considering that the report of July had only a **32,000** ( :eek: ) increase, this sounds to me like an Enron forecast. I have some questions here: If even pessimistic economists were talking of more than 100,000, what happened here? Can we really trust larger investment companies if they have this kind of economists? Do you think the Republican’s point that jobs are getting better and plentiful suffered a mighty blow today? Why it seems that economists are not getting better at this? You would think that with better computer models and data, that modern economists could be better now, so why did they get it so wrong? Finally, a mini rant from the super: [sub][Super cynical mode] IMO we should outsource the jobs of these economists to India, they are better at math there, and I think they will be less biased with the data, (Reagan’s mourning? A good reason not to hire people? Give me a break)… [/Super cynical mode][/sub] ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2004, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/2 "2004-08-06T22:52:37Z")
Don’t worry, I’m sure **Sam Stone** will be along any minute to tell us how these figures are meaningless, that the corporations are making bucketloads of money, and we should all re-elect Bush so he can make those tax cuts permanent and ensure four more years of the same. :rolleyes: The unescapable fact is that, barring a major miracle, by November 2004, George W. Bush will have presided over four years of a 1 million-plus net job loss. And, if cornered, he’ll blame it on Clinton… ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/3 "2004-08-07T00:06:16Z")
> [@](#): > > Do you think the Republican’s point that jobs are getting better and plentiful suffered a mighty blow today? In my personal experience, jobs are not getting better. I went from a rather nice job, to one that barely pays my mortgage, utilities, food, insurance, etc. John Kerry says that the new jobs that are being created pay an average of $9,000 less than the jobs that were lost. The “new job” that I got pays $22,000 less than I was making before. (And this is after my recent raise.) ---
**Author:** ![mic84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/977dab/32.png) [@mic84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mic84)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/4 "2004-08-07T00:25:20Z")
Nothing substantive to add, except Paul Krugma had this nice [chart](http://pkarchive.org/column/030904.html) a few months back. ---
**Author:** ![Brutus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@Brutus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brutus)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/5 "2004-08-07T00:31:22Z")
Out of curiosity, what would Comrade Kerry do to create more high-paying jobs? Submit a new 5-year plan to the Politburo? Miracle them into existance? Tax them into existance? Inquiring minds want to know, and so do I! ---
**Author:** ![SPOOFE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@SPOOFE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SPOOFE)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/6 "2004-08-07T00:32:09Z")
Back in March-April-May, jobs were increasing much FASTER than economists predicted. I imagine they all boosted their estimates to jumbo levels to compensate. This isn’t a matter of “bad as opposed to good” but rather “decent as opposed to super-amazing”. ---
**Author:** ![Brutus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@Brutus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brutus)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/7 "2004-08-07T00:32:34Z")
And yes, I misspelled ‘existence.’ Will that create a new high-paying teaching job, perhaps? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/8 "2004-08-07T00:56:45Z")
Faster in May **SPOOFE**? It did not take too long to get “Blow” in a headline: > **[Business & Financial News, U.S & International Breaking News | Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/politics)** > > Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment, technology, video and pictures. > [@](#): > > Poor Jobs Figure a Sharp Blow to Bush – Analysts > > … > > The Labor Department reported Friday that U.S. employers added a meager 32,000 workers to payrolls last month, stunning Wall Street economists who had forecast a gain of 228,000. The department also revised job figures down by 61,000 for May and June. > > “This is not good news for the president, especially since his approval ratings on the economy had begun to inch up a little to around 47 or 48 percent,” said Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center. > > “It also comes at a very bad time, just when voters have started to pay closer attention to the conditions they see around them when they consider whether Bush deserves another four years,” he said. Take a look at the revised figures for May and June! As I said before: I am not an expert. But, do remember that it is common to revise the figures of these reports down after they are released. So, I am suspecting even this 32,000 number is not accurate and the makers of this report just prevented an even worse headline: Negative job growth for July. (It is unrelated to this news, but this is funny: the Reuters link has Bush getting his blood pressure checked!) ---
**Author:** ![Boy\_Scout11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/f08c70/32.png) [@Boy\_Scout11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boy_Scout11)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/9 "2004-08-07T01:06:39Z")
So far, August is looking just as bad. ---
**Author:** ![xenophon41](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xenophon41/32/253_2.png) [@xenophon41](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xenophon41)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/10 "2004-08-07T01:57:32Z")
> [@Brutus](#): > > Out of curiosity, what would Comrade Kerry do to create more high-paying jobs? Submit a new 5-year plan to the Politburo? Miracle them into existance? Tax them into existance? Inquiring minds want to know, and so do I! [Glad you asked!](http://www.johnkerry.com/issues/economy/jobs.html) These questions are usually best answered at the source. (Wanna know Bush’ plan? Compare it at: [http://www.georgewbush.com](http://www.georgewbush.com) (Note that Kerry’s plan _does_ include tax incentives for job creation, but doesn’t seem to mention any miracles. The other guy’s plan however… let’s just say it matches that “faith based” agenda we’re always hearing about.) ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/11 "2004-08-07T03:26:42Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > If even pessimistic economists were talking of more than 100,000, what happened here? Can we really trust larger investment companies if they have this kind of economists? Trust them to do what? Predict the future? My friend who is a trader says that people ask hime all the time what the markets will do. His reply is “if I knew that, do you think I would be working or sitting at home buying and selling stock?” ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/12 "2004-08-07T04:12:42Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > Trust them to do what? Predict the future? My friend who is a trader says that people ask hime all the time what the markets will do. His reply is “if I knew that, do you think I would be working or sitting at home buying and selling stock?” Maybe I erred by mentioning the stock market, but I was referring to the members that are economists, not the traders exclusively; for that, I do agree there is no way to predict the future. (Your friend should get the ape 😉 ) However, the job report is a different history, there are ways to get a good preview of the report by doing good research, this was a case were data was there (The ISM’s nonmanufacturing employment index for example) and if one bit of news I remember was right, the problem here is that many economists are not spending more time and money in research to get better forecasts. (Forecasts that were used to influence public opinion and business decisions). I have the feeling many of these fellows will continue to keep their jobs, I wish I could have the capability to just say “oh well, back to the drawing board” after several mayor blunders and still be trusted. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/13 "2004-08-07T04:19:04Z")
> [@Brutus](#): > > Out of curiosity, what would Comrade Kerry do to create more high-paying jobs? Submit a new 5-year plan to the Politburo? Miracle them into existance? Tax them into existance? Inquiring minds want to know, and so do I! Like the way you equate Kerry with a Communist style command economy and Congress to the Politburo. Since Congress is Republican controlled it so ipso facso the Republicans are actually commies. Thanks for the clarification ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/14 "2004-08-07T04:23:56Z")
I think the cause of the drop in the jobs number is pretty obvious - Oil prices, a series of terrorist warnings, culminating with the election. When the election is over, no matter who wins, the heated atmosphere will die down, people will get back to business as usual, and then hiring will pick up again. The fundamentals are all strong. Factory growth reached its highest rate in 30 years last month. This is a temporary pinch driven by current events. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/15 "2004-08-07T04:29:51Z")
> [@Brutus](#): > > Out of curiosity, what would Comrade Kerry do to create more high-paying jobs? Submit a new 5-year plan to the Politburo? Miracle them into existance? Tax them into existance? Inquiring minds want to know, and so do I! I get it. Kerry is really a Communist! You right-wingers really crack me up! :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/16 "2004-08-07T04:55:56Z")
**SS:** _I think the cause of the drop in the jobs number is pretty obvious - Oil prices, a series of terrorist warnings, culminating with the election. When the election is over, no matter who wins, the heated atmosphere will die down, people will get back to business as usual, and then hiring will pick up again._ I don’t follow. Why should we expect high oil prices or terrorist warnings to “culminate” with the November US elections? Seems to me that if tight oil and terrorist danger are real problems that are having significant effects on the economy, there’s nothing about the outcome of a presidential election that will automatically make them go away. Are you suggesting that tight oil and terrorist danger are **not** really significant problems and their impact on the economy is the result of hyping them for campaign purposes, which will stop once the campaigns are over? Don’t know that I could really go along with you on that. ---
**Author:** ![Brutus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@Brutus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brutus)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/17 "2004-08-07T05:14:08Z")
> [@Frostillicus](#): > > I get it. Kerry is really a Communist! You right-wingers really crack me up! :rolleyes: Actually, you don’t get it. Not even close. ---
**Author:** ![Zagadka](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zagadka/32/7272_2.png) [@Zagadka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zagadka)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 6:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/18 "2004-08-07T06:12:13Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > I think the cause of the drop in the jobs number is pretty obvious - Oil prices, a series of terrorist warnings, culminating with the election. … You can’t be f\*ing serious. Can’t be. ---
**Author:** ![Avenger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Avenger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Avenger)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/19 "2004-08-07T06:13:36Z")
_Inserts post calling Bush a Nazi for reasons of fairness, balance and tradition_ > [@](#): > > Are you suggesting that tight oil and terrorist danger are not really significant problems and their impact on the economy is the result of hyping them for campaign purposes, which will stop once the campaigns are over? Don’t know that I could really go along with you on that. It’s either that, or Sam thinks that all those Islamic fundamentalists just won’t have the appetite for terrorism next year what with their being no election in the US. It must be that. Surely not even he could suggest that the current terror alerts are just a politically motivated scam?? ---
**Author:** ![cmason32](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/51bf81/32.png) [@cmason32](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmason32)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2004, 6:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659/20 "2004-08-07T06:14:39Z")
> [@Boy Scout11](#): > > So far, August is looking just as bad. The August job figures come out the day after Bush accepts the nomination at the republican convention. I bet Rove was just sure that the August job figures would be good. Now they face the prospect of having poor job growth, or worse - negative job growth, the day after the convention. If I were Rove that would have me quivering in my boots. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/economists-predicted-235-000-new-jobs-for-july-it-was-32-000/258659.md?page=2)