You think that a boat captain would refuse an order to attack a carrier group in time of war because it would be suicide? I wouldn’t expect that. And on the other hand, I think that many higher ups would be willing to sacrifice a sub (or several) for a chance of taking out a carrier.
On what basis do you think it wouldn’t work? Because the carrier group personnel would be more vigilant than in time of peace? During exercises, they’re supposed to be. You think that this happened only when the USA was playing with the gloves on? I have some doubt because of how often it happened. One sunk carrier might be an exception. But half a dozen (or more, I don’t know exactly how many times it happened) becomes a trend.
There is a lot we don’t know - and won’t get to know - about the capabilities and vulnerabilities here.
Whether a mission to take out a carrier is a suicide mission or not really doesn’t matter. The mere fact that a carrier is vulnerable changes the playing field in a fundamental way. You cannot take a carrier into a situation where a sub (whether a suicide mission or not) can sink it. All you know is that your carrier is not invincible. You can’t depend upon your foe not being willing to risk a sub crew in order to take out one of your prime assets. This is the nature of the game. A large fraction of the last 70 years of military operation has been dictated by the manner in which you don’t engage.
The biggest change to the playing field is that you don’t rely on passive-sonar and escorting submarines. You send out sub-hunting aircraft dropping active-sonar buoys and homing torpedoes and sink the buggers hundreds of miles away. But then my answer to most military problems is send more aeroplanes so I might be biased :D.
Speed - it can get to a target in hours where ships or ground forces would take days - and the ability to strike a wide variety of targets with near-impunity (if the enemy anti-air threat is neutralized)
In addition to speed, I’d add that their ability to transition relatively seamlessly from flying over water to land or vice-versa is useful. Ships have to stop where the water stops. Tanks have to stop where the water begins. Airplanes can transition back and forth over the two without any issues.
Yes, I think that most sub commanders aren’t going to order what is a suicide attack such as these stunts in time of war on the off chance they might get in and hurt or sink the carrier. I don’t know what you think military personnel are, but they aren’t robots who make cold calculations continuously about sacrificing their entire crew on a chance to hurt the enemy, not if there are other options. Usually people who think this is a good idea are those who aren’t serving on the sub at the tip of the spear.
Could there be a sub captain who decides it’s worth the sacrifice? Sure. It could happen. But I think the odds of a sub captain being willing to do so AND being in a position to actually make the attempt AND getting through the screen is a pretty low probably series of events.
I explained this. Certainly they would be more vigilant during war time because, you know, it’s not an exercise any more. In addition, it isn’t an exercise anymore, so all systems would be on line and at full capacity which isn’t the case when you are testing in an exercise. In addition, all assets in the task group, including all elements in the screen will be more vigilant, including attack subs who aren’t going to screw around or hold back.
Do I think that, despite that someone could get lucky? Of course, There is a very low chance that this sort of attack might actually work in war time. Probably a higher chance than Russia’s soooooper hypervelocity torpedoes would work, or that China’s soooooper doooooper hypervelocity missiles would work at this point. If we go to war with a major power then it’s a much more likely possibility that a carrier would or could be damaged or sunk. But I doubt any of the possible navies we might face would enjoy the experience.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy Submarine Force (PLANSF), in addition to competing for the world’s longest name, has I believe a grand total of 6 submarines that are capable of speeds greater than 25 knots.