Ah, never mind. Misread your post.
Summary: the 50% number is a myth propagated by an incorrect interpretation of one year’s marriage records. There were half as many divorces in that year as there were couples newly wed in that year, which actually has nothing to do with the percentage of already-married couples which divorce.
:smack: Whoops, looks like I misread the article and made an ass of myself. It’s not 50% but frankly my head is spinning from all the statistics in that article, so nevermind.
I don’t see an impact here, given the rate of divorce, adultery and the like among heterosexuals. The “Defend Marriage at All Costs” people need to first address the abuses of het. marriage: divorce, adultery, children born out of wedlock and the like.
There are plenty of straight people on their second, third and fourth marriages.
Where, in particular, is an amendment banning further marriages for those who have committed adultery? Who have prior marriages or divorces?
Are straight people who are serial adulterers and serial re-marriers not a threat to the sanctity of the monogamous heterosexual marriage? Are those who reproduce first and ask questions later not a threat to the sanctity of monogamous marriage as the proper setting for the production and raising of children?
When the critics have dealt with those internal issues, then maybe they can deal with the “threat” of same-sex marriage.
From the stuff I was reading, it looked like the cumulative rate for straights was 10% at 5 years and 20% at 10 years, or very roughly linear.
But mostly, I just pulled it outta my rear.
Between the fact that this is an anecdote, probably little. “The plural of anecdote is not data” and all that, and this isn’t even plural.
On the other hand, one of the arguments against SSM is that changing the definition of “marriage” to include SSM might include a whole group of people for whom the commitment is taken less seriously, and thus the increase in divorce might tend to cause the rest of society to regard the commitment less seriously as well.
If Britney Spears is cheapening marriage by her actions, ISTM that so are lesbians (and heterosexuals, certainly) who divorce as well.
All this is predicated on the idea that SSM is going to be even more unstable than heterosexual marriage. My WAG was that this was probably not true for lesbian relationships, for which I imagine the survival rate is roughly equivalent for heterosexuals, while the gay male rate of divorce/breakup would tend to be higher even than 40%. At a guess - I have nothing beyond personal experience and observation.
Regards,
Shodan
Since that is what you have, please explain to us your personal experience and observation that leads you to conclude that gay men who choose to committ will break up in greater numbers than any other orientation.
The fact that of all the gay people I know, there are exactly two couples (out of roughly thirty or forty) who have remained together longer than five years. This includes those that entered into partnerships blessed by a gay church hereabouts (the MCC).
Again, it is anecdotal at best, but the couple mentioned in the OP is another example.
ISTM that gay male relationships break up a lot. My WAG is that “a lot” means “more than heterosexual marriages”, and the example in the OP reinforces that notion (to the extent that it reinforces anything - I mentioned it hardly rises to the level of “anecdote”).
Let me know if the definition of “personal observation” needs further clarification.
Regards,
Shodan
My goodness. I don’t believe I even know the details of eighty people’s relationships at all, let alone just gay ones. How many couples do you know of any orientation? The straight and lesbian ones stay together more than five years, you say? How old are these people, and where do they live? And I’m confused – you say it "includes: those who were married. Are you also including people who did not consider themselves married?
While I can’t claim such an impressive social calendar, my own experience is different from yours. I’m curious why you would even offer it or decide to base your opinion on your observation if you are so aware of how weak it is an evidence. Do you believe it is accurate or not? If so, what mechanism do you propose to explain the difference? And how does the example in the OP, which is about lesbians, reinforce your notion about gay men?
It was extremely clear to me. Perhaps it’s unclear to you – did you think it means “get out of explaining myself free”?
You don’t know eighty people, total? Maybe you need to get out more. 
Probably several hundred.
A wide variety, and several places. The exact details of my life (and theirs) I don’t care to share. Thanks for asking.
Yes.
Many of my beliefs are based on my personal observation. I imagine it is the same for most people, hence your assertion that your “experience is different”. I would guess that you think your experience is at least as valid as mine, yes?
What difference do you mean - the difference between your experience and mine? Perhaps, as you say, I know more people than you do.
It doesn’t; it is a separate case. Did you notice that I was talking about it as a separate case?
No, I thought that you really didn’t understand, and that it was an honest question. Now that we have established that it was not, we understand each other better.
Anything else I can clear up for you?
Regards,
Shodan
What I said was very clear, and was not this.
Funny, I don’t feel thanked. I feel like you’re giving me a bunch of attitude because I asked you to explain yourself. I also did not ask for “the exact details”, so once again, you’re taking something I said that was very clear and pretending it was something else.
That was my point. You already state that you know you have no real data, and that because experiences vary, they are not sufficient in themselves to support conclusions. Yet at the same time, you state that you have formed such a conclusion. I suppose many people do base their beliefs solely on personal observation, but they don’t usually state that that is a faulty way to do so at the same time, so this confuses me.
I misunderstood your statement that the OP supports your idea that gay men break up more often than lesbians or straight men, I suppose because it did not occur to me that someone would reasonably believe it could possibly have any bearing on how often gay men divorce.
Anyway, are you in fact comparing any kind of gay male relationship with just straight and lesbian marriages, or are you saying that all these hundreds of lesbians and straight people whose intimate lives you know about generally date each other for more than five years even when they are not considering themselves married?
Now, the other thing I want you to explain is, if it were true that gay men who get married usually divorce within five years, what do you think explains that behavior? What is inherent to all these different gay men – who come from all over and are all different ages, as you say – that a mere two sets of them are capable of comitting to a long-term relationship?
If it helps, here’s some data from the Netherlands. They legalized gay marriage in 2001. between april 2001 and december 2003 there were 5751 same sex marriages, and 63 divorces. (1.09%). In that same period, there were 243,000 straight marriages and 2800 straight divorces. (1.15%). Spain has seen one divorce in it’s year of same sex marriage, while the divorce rate among straight couples has nearly doubled in the last 10 years, (83,000 in 95,150,000 in 05)
Here’s what you said -
I am sure everyone can make up their own minds on the subject.
It confuses you when people try to explain how strongly they are attached to a conclusion?
First you claimed that you didn’t understand what “personal experience” meant. Then you said you did understand, but asked anyway. So let’s be clear - do you really not understand what a WAG is?
Since I made no such statement, I don’t wonder that you are confused.
It didn’t occur to me either. Maybe that’s why I didn’t say it.
No, I was limiting the discussion to same-sex marriage (SSM) or the equivalent. SSM is not limited to gay males, hence the OP.
No, I haven’t made any statement about how long anyone dates. I am not sure where you got that idea, besides thin air.
Any number of reasons. Much of this is rooted in evolutionary biology, which is a contentious field. I suppose I need to reiterate that this is my opinon, not founded on extensive research, nor have I ever been published on the subject. If that is not good enough for you, I can live with that.
Are we clear? If you are instantly going to demand cites for everything, you aren’t going to get them. This is opinion. If you need to have the thread moved to IMHO, fine with me.
Regards,
Shodan
PS - a minor nitpick - since we are now at the point of accusing each other of not saying things, it was not quite clear from your coding what you were saying (or not), when you attributed this remark to me -
There is one quotation mark here, and then a semi-colon.
If you are attributing a quote to me, be aware that it is not accurate. Nowhere did I use the phrase as (I think) you meant to imply it.
As I said, a nitpick, but we seem to be headed down the route of arguing semantics. Fine with me, but as long as we are both aware where it becomes unproductive.
Indeed. I said I don’t know the details of that many people’s relationships. You said I didn’t know that many people. Obviously, a very different statement, and not what I said. Does everyone you know register their intimiate details with you?
No. Your particular attempt to do so confused me, because I could not understand why you would hold a position you were sure was based on no real evidence.
No. You claimed that. Show me where I claimed that.
If it’s “talking out your ass about something you don’t even believe yourself”, I guess I do.
Here are your statements my responses were based on: “The fact that of all the gay people I know, there are exactly two couples (out of roughly thirty or forty) who have remained together longer than five years.” I asked if you were including people who did not consider themselves married, and you said: “Yes.” So what gives? Is someone else posting for you?
So why is it your opinion, again? Personal observation, which you admit is a poor indicator of reality? Some vague notion that some sort of science somewhere supports you? You seem to be saying hey, it’s just my opinion, it’s not what I actually believe. You believed it enough to state it here. Do you want to take it back now?
Can you please explain what makes you think that an opinion is something you can just state and then not defend, or something it is generally considered smart to base on what you know is not real evidence?
The semi-colon was typo. It should have closed the quote.
I’m sorry, but I find it difficult to believe that it is so unusual to know eighty straight people well enough to tell if they are married or not.
I think we have covered this sufficiently for a genuine attempt at understanding to succeed.
No, I guess you don’t, since that is not what it means.
Well, no, your apparent failure to comprehend is not enough to make me reconsider my statements.
Actually, it is considered smart to actually make some atttempt at understanding a post before you respond to it.
Why exactly did you put the word “include” in quotes?
Regards,
Shodan
I just want to get one thing clear: Shodan, do you believe that gay men everywhere, of all different ages and backgrounds (as you said were represented in your personal sample), are more incapable of committing to marriage than any other orientation?
Either you think that’s the case, or you don’t. Maybe you just think it’s possible that it’s the case, because of your experience (though of course it could just be coincidence). I think it’s possible that it’s the case too, but reason tells me it’s highly unlikely. Since gay men do not share the same personalities, environments, genetics, and so on, I don’t see how they could possibly all be united by this strange trait. If you’re saying it’s reasonable to think it’s likely, I want to know the reason.If you’re saying you’re going to go on thinking it’s likely based on nothing other than your personal observation, well, you have that right, and I guess anyone still reading this can decide for themselves what they think of that.
I would think it potentially more likely that gay men avoided marriage entirely more often, but to say that those who want marriage and seek it out usually fail is, well, something that needs to be backed up pretty damn well. You’ve just said to every gay man on this board ‘Your marriage, should you enter into one, will probably fail, not because many marriages do, but for some mysterious reason linked to your gay maleness and biology. I can’t explain this and I don’t have to, it’s just what I kind of think’. You just don’t get a free pass on that. I can tell you won’t answer for it – heck, you’re actually denying you said things you said just two posts ago, getting you to admit your “WAG” was pure-d bullshit is definitely impossible.
But hey, even now, if you can ever come back with some evidence (which you don’t need, like you say; you have the right to an uninformed opinion, I suppose), I’ll check it out, and if I was wrong I’ll eat my words with no sauce.
But as long as you persist in mistating things, I doubt that will happen.
Or you have trouble distinguishing “this is unalterable fact” from “so it seems to me”.
You really think it is impossible that gay men might have some common factor?
I imagine you deny the possibility that there might be a genetic influence on sexual orientation just as heatedly, do you not? After all, it is absolutely impossible for all those diverse gay guys to have anything whatsoever in common with one another. Right?
How generous of you. Considering that I have mentioned a time or two that this is based on my personal observation, I am glad that you noticed. Progress, I suppose.
Really? On what do you base this, and why might it be the case?
Given that you believe that gay men cannot possibly have anything in common with one another.
Or might this be - dare I say it - a personal opinion, based on your own observation? And based, as you mention yourself, a more narrow acquaintance and thus a smaller sample size than mine.
Regards,
Shodan
So the answer is yes, you do believe that, provisionally. Okay. That’s what I wanted to know.
No, my opinion is not based on my experience. If my experience were identical to yours, I would still hold the same opinion, that it is very unlikely to be anything more than a coincidence. It is correct I don’t think that gay men of completely different backgrounds, cultures, ages, genetics (if there is a genetic correlation, it is not universal in all gay men, as I’m sure you know), belief systems, personalities, and so on, almost all have some mysterious trait that makes their marriages fail more often than any other orientation. If you can show me how that is possible, then I will admit I was a fool for thinking it is unreasonable. If you can’t, you have no grounds to attack my position. Just insisting that it is reasonable or pretending you don’t understand the specifics of my point is not going to suffice as as an explanation.
Well, I have mentioned it a few times, but good.
Really? Then what is it based on? You didn’t say.
Regards,
Shodan