# Effect of Midwest floods on this year's harvest? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 15, 2008, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/effect-of-midwest-floods-on-this-years-harvest/453041 "2008-06-15T19:51:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/effect-of-midwest-floods-on-this-years-harvest/453041/1 "2008-06-15T19:51:59Z")
We’re already dealing with a global food crisis that has caused riots in several countries – arguably a food- **distribution** crisis but production is at least a part of it – and the U.S. is a major food exporter. How badly will the recent floods in the Midwest hurt this year’s harvest, and what will be the wider economic effects? (Not exactly a political question, let alone religious, etc., but I’m not posting this in GQ because it’s a question about the future with, at present, no definite factual answer.) ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/effect-of-midwest-floods-on-this-years-harvest/453041/2 "2008-06-15T20:04:07Z")
How much of the U.S.'s food production is actually damaged? Is this amount atypical? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/effect-of-midwest-floods-on-this-years-harvest/453041/3 "2008-06-15T20:16:43Z")
[QUOTE=Quartz] How much of the U.S.'s food production is actually damaged? Is this amount atypical? [/QUOTE] I dunno, but I know the Midwest is often referred to as our “Breadbasket.” According to [Agriculture Online:](http://www.agriculture.com/ag/story.jhtml?storyid=/templatedata/ag/story/data/1213038049528.xml) > [@](#): > > Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report showed a three-percent decline in corn conditions from the previous week, with 60% in good-to-excellent condition compared to 63% a week ago. Forty percent is seen in very poor to fair shape, compared to 30% last week. Emergence is slightly behind the average pace: As of Sunday, 89% of the nation’s corn had emerged, compared to the previous 95% average. > > Monday’s soybean planting numbers alone are enough to make market-watchers and traders in Chicago a little nervous. Plantings are 12% off the previous average at 77%. There is one bright spot with soybeans, however, as 85% of the nation’s beans are in fair-to-good shape compared to the 82% fair-to-good average. > > Recent record rainfall amounts are starting to trickle into projected corn and soybean yields. Aside from fields simply being inundated by flood waters, emergence and root weakness are major crop concerns. While the latter conditions could cause yield drags later on, it’s the water that has the most damage potential. > > “There are estimates that 2 million acres of agricultural land has now been ‘lost’ for the season due to reoccurring heavy rains since March and the most recent round of pounding rains and flooding,” says Chicago, Illinois-based QT Weather ag meteorologist Allen Motew. "This ‘hit’ on corn and beans is approaching the disastrous year of the Great Flood of 1993 where 3 millions acres were lost and corn yields dropped more than 24%. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Them](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/898d66/32.png) [@The\_Them](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Them)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/effect-of-midwest-floods-on-this-years-harvest/453041/4 "2008-06-15T21:08:15Z")
DISASTER. OK, I overstate. But this is pretty bad. Iowa’s lost like a third of its maize, who knows how much else. And Iowa is the Biggie. It’s too soon to say what all has happened, but there’s tons of Illinois (2nd Biggie), Missouri, and Wisconsin hurting. Add that to the drought in the Southeast, and I confidently predict a much less than bumper crop this year. Resulting in major dollars for whoever’s crops DO come in, as futures contracts go nutcase high. Expect more expensive food in pretty much all categories. The Third World could find things even more dicey than they already are. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/effect-of-midwest-floods-on-this-years-harvest/453041/5 "2008-06-15T21:28:55Z")
I found a [graph of U.S. corn production](http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/static/files/c_usprod.gif) Looks to me like there are always a lot of ups and downs. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/effect-of-midwest-floods-on-this-years-harvest/453041/6 "2008-06-15T21:35:55Z")
Okay, let’s assume a loss of 25%, slightly worse than 1993. Now we’ve quantified that, what does it mean? ---
**Author:** ![Key\_Lime\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/48db29/32.png) [@Key\_Lime\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Key_Lime_Guy)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/effect-of-midwest-floods-on-this-years-harvest/453041/7 "2008-06-15T21:53:52Z")
There was extensive & detailed discussion about this on NPR this morning & yesterday morning. Upshot (as I remember it): look for milk, meat & eggs to be much higher in about 6 months. [npr.org](http://npr.org) undoubtedly has more. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2008, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/effect-of-midwest-floods-on-this-years-harvest/453041/8 "2008-06-18T01:41:04Z")
Last time corn production dropped was 2001 to 2002. Production dropped by 6%, prices increased by 17%. However, total food expenditures from [2001 to 2002 increased by 2.7%](http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/CPIFoodAndExpenditures/Data/table2.htm). From 1993 (the last big flood) to 1994 food expenditures rose 4.2% (same link.) ---
**Author:** ![AskNott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asknott/32/5790_2.png) [@AskNott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AskNott)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2008, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/effect-of-midwest-floods-on-this-years-harvest/453041/9 "2008-06-20T16:43:12Z")
In Indiana, the ag people are saying the next 10 days are crucial. July is too late to plant corn here. After that, it’s soybeans, if they can plant anything at all. So, more expensive ethanol and tortillas. Hoosier farmers are eligible for disaster relief, whatever that means this year. Maybe they get poisonous trailers, if the northern Indiana trailer factories aren’t flooded out. :rolleyes: Wild-caught catfish meat ought to be plentiful.