# Egypt: Now what? Civil war? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 3, 2013, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550 "2013-07-03T15:17:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/41 "2013-07-04T02:36:54Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > BBC TV is reporting a coup is now under way in Egypt, with tanks on the street. I think calling this a coup, while technically correct, obscures our understanding of what is happening to some extent (so far). This article makes the case better than I would: > [@](#): > > Morsy’s national security advisor has described what’s happening as a "military coup"and by the traditional definition of that term – “when the military or a section of the military, turns its coercive power against the apex of the state, establishes itself there, and the rest of the state takes its orders from the new regime” – this certainly seems to fit the bill. > > \ > > But are there cases when a coup can advance democracy? In a 2012 article for the Harvard International Law Journal, Ozan Varol, now a professor at Lewis & Clark Law School, argues that while the vast majority of military coups are undemocratic in nature, and lead to less democratic political regimes, there are significant examples of “democratic coups d’etat.” > > \ > > Varol argues that there are seven characteristics a coup must generally meet in order to be considered democratic: > > _“(1) the coup is staged against an authoritarian or totalitarian regime; (2) the military responds to persistent popular opposition against that regime; (3) the authoritarian or totalitarian regime refuses to step down in response to the popular uprising; (4) the coup is staged by a military that is highly respected within the nation, ordinarily because of mandatory conscription; (5) the military stages the coup to overthrow the authoritarian or totalitarian regime; (6) the military facilitates free and fair elections within a short span of time; and (7) the coup ends with the transfer of power to democratically elected leaders”_ > > SOURCE: [Can a Coup Ever Be Democratic? – Foreign Policy](http://ideas.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/03/can_a_coup_ever_be_democratic) Just food for thought. A lot remains to be seen how this will all play out. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/42 "2013-07-04T03:14:24Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > I think calling this a coup, while technically correct, obscures our understanding of what is happening to some extent (so far). > > This article makes the case better than I would: > > Just food for thought. A lot remains to be seen how this will all play out. Well, as for (1), I don’t think Morsi’s government was – was not well-established enough to be – totalitarian or even authoritarian; though, I have no doubt, potentially authoritarian if it lasted. Which raises the question of whether there can be such thing as a **pre-emptive** democratic military coup. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/43 "2013-07-04T04:04:15Z")
In terms of US interests we’d be far better off if Mubarak had never lost power. Israel’s interests too. Israel has GOT to be monitoring this situation very closely. ---
**Author:** ![Capt\_Kirk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@Capt\_Kirk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt_Kirk)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/44 "2013-07-04T04:34:49Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > In terms of US interests we’d be far better off if Mubarak had never lost power. Israel’s interests too. Israel has GOT to be monitoring this situation very closely. I doubt that any sort of Israeli/Egyptian conflict is going to boil up soon. Egypt’s Military is a little busy right now and their PR with the People is pretty good, Israel will sit this out as 1. Not likely to jump in FOR the MB and 2. Know they would be unwelcome by anyone currently involved. **Capt** ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/45 "2013-07-04T04:54:02Z")
There are worse outcomes. The military could have set off a hydrogen bomb in Tahrir square for instance… But, still this stinks. A democratically elected government must be allowed to put forth it’s mandate. Nothing empowers Islamists more than actions like this. Nothing emasculates them more than having their inability to actually run things placed in relief. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 6:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/46 "2013-07-04T06:51:34Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > In terms of US interests we’d be far better off if Mubarak had never lost power. Israel’s interests too. Not at all the same, of course. Which can’t be stated often enough. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 9:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/47 "2013-07-04T09:09:01Z")
Why are conservatives ‘confused’ about Egypt. Why would any American expect the Egyptian people to emerge from dictatorship to democracy in some kind of model smooth transition without dramatic and near bloodless upheavals as occurred yesterday? When I watched the scenes of 17 million Secular minded Egyptians standing in relatively peaceful protest for such a huge gathering of people a few days ago and saw the Egyptian Military fly helicopters over with the Egyptian flags unfurled below then… and the millions cheered their beloved.. ‘secular minded’ military, I sort of figured out that this would turn out as a regime change better than most where passions run high and things can become explosively violent. The Egyptians thus far should be applauded for how they are handling their revoltion and their desire to build emerge into a secular-minded democracy. So with that in mind, the fun thing over here to watch is the Conservatives trying to slap a ‘dope sticker’ on Obama’s back for causing all this turmoil to happen. The problem is .. the Cons have been screaming that Obama was supporting a terrorist regime in Morsi as the "MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD’ and all Islamic Driven Terrorism was going to destabilize the Muslim World from Pakistna to the Israeli Egypt border. That “Obama is a Muslim Brotherhood enabler” narrative that has been active the past year, actually took a big hit the past two days as we watch the secular Egyptians totally reject whatever Morsi was trying to do a political party that was too dominated by religion. On Fox and Friends a couple days ago they had Rush on and Rush starts out to say that he is confused about Egypt, but then goes on to give the audience an analysis in a way that turns the event into some problem that Obama of course has caused. The point is, that Egyptian, secularists in the streets with the help of the military which are close to the Pentagon and depend on the US for critical funding and supplies, overthrowing the Fundamentalist but duly elected government IS NOT REALLY a BAD THING. But listen to Fox and Friends trying to make it bad somehow but stumble all over themselves doing it. > [@](#): > > CARLSON: Well, thank you. So much to talk about. Let’s talk a little bit about Egypt because we’ve been watching these live pictures come into Fox & Friends this morning of these massive protests going on and I’m interested in knowing what your thoughts are. The Egyptian military was apparently giving President Morsi 24 to 48 hours to basically not be president anymore in that country. > > RUSH: I don’t know. I’m totally confused by Egypt. > > CARLSON: Yeah. > > RUSH: I thought this is what we wanted. When this all happened, when the Arab Spring was taking place a couple years ago, everybody was making it appear as though it was happening as a result of being inspired by Obama’s own election. So “hope and change” was spreading to the Middle East, and we had all kinds of learned people, including some conservative media pundits, talk about what a wonderful day it was in the Middle East and this is exactly what Obama’s presidency means: The world is going to love us. Basically what we have is a bunch of people in Egypt defrauded by an illegitimate, lying campaign. It reminds me of some others that I know and am familiar with. > > KILMEADE: It’s amazing, too. The Muslim Brotherhood had a chance to rule. The people saw the oppressive way and the way they treated women and robbed them of their rights and their ability to succeed, and now they’re rioting in the streets. > > RUSH: What did anybody think was going to happen? Who are these people? I mean, they’re not exactly the Founding Fathers of this country. What do people think they are? These are militant Islamists, under the cover of a so-called moderate group called the Muslim Brotherhood. I don’t understand why anybody is surprised by any of this. > > CARLSON: I don’t either. That’s been sort of my point this morning, Rush, is they voted this person in. They had other candidates who were on the ballot. > > RUSH: Well, but they were defrauded. They were lied to. The people of Egypt were lied to. They were lied to about Mubarak. They were lied to about what they were getting with Morsi, who is just a front for a bunch of more militant people. The fact that Obama can’t bring himself to condemn this ought to be eye-opening to anybody that’s paying attention. . [http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2013/07/02/rush\_on\_fox\_friends](http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2013/07/02/rush_on_fox_friends) ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 9:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/48 "2013-07-04T09:26:13Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > But, still this stinks. A democratically elected government must be allowed to put forth it’s mandate. It wasn’t doing that. That’s why huge numbers of people wanted the military to get rid of Morsi. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 9:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/49 "2013-07-04T09:39:32Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > There are worse outcomes. The military could have set off a hydrogen bomb in Tahrir square for instance… > > But, still this stinks. A democratically elected government must be allowed to put forth it’s mandate. Nothing empowers Islamists more than actions like this. Nothing emasculates them more than having their inability to actually run things placed in relief. A government that lies its way into power and then does the exact opposite of what it promised while at the same time rigging the rules of the political game in its favour has no mandate. In the final run-off Morsi was running against a hand picked Old Regime stooge and millions held their noses and voted ‘for’ Morsi on the basis of his ‘inclusiveness’ bullshit. Morsi and the Brotherhood have no one else to blame than themselves for this. They went straight from promising to play ‘pluralist democracy nice’ to ‘One Party Sharia State, let’s go for it’. They have had their chance and they have shown themselves to be the anti-democratic, fundamentalist assholes people feared they were all along. Screw them. ---
**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 10:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/50 "2013-07-04T10:29:42Z")
Lying about your positions, rigging the game in your favor…what’s the problem? Seems like they got this whole democracy thing figured out already. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/51 "2013-07-04T11:44:37Z")
> [@marshmallow](#): > > Lying about your positions, rigging the game in your favor…what’s the problem? Seems like they got this whole democracy thing figured out already. Sadly we haven’t woken up to the fact that we’re also living under illegitimate pseudo-democratic regimes that say and do anything to gain/keep power while dancing to the jig of other forces. And if we did the Army wouldn’t be on our side anyway. I’m just old and cynical now and sick of it all. It’s good to see people not taking any shit from their ‘government’. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/52 "2013-07-04T12:45:26Z")
There are very few times when military coups are a preferable response to the actions of a democratic government, and I do think this is one of them. Egypt had/has such a young democracy and it is so ill formed that I just don’t see how Morsi and the path he was on would ever give Egypt the sort of government/leadership a democracy needs. The key point of any democracy is reconciling the concept of majority rule with respect for and maintenance of rights for the minority. If free elections just give you the power to impose your will on the minority then you don’t have a good democracy, you just have a tyranny of the majority–and Egypt needs to have its constitution written in a way that no matter what happens at the ballot box the people that don’t win elections need to be fully protected by the law and need to be able to continue operating as political opposition at every future election. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/53 "2013-07-04T13:19:18Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > The key point of any democracy is reconciling the concept of majority rule with respect for and maintenance of rights for the minority. Well that’s the problem with trying to establish a new democracy in any society dominated by a religion that doesn’t recognise any distinction between politics, religion, social and personal and where a substantial percentage take a fundamentalist take on the religion with fanatical seriousness. Read somewhere today that the bedrock support for the Muslim Brotherhood is 25%. Like Hamas and Hezbollah their social programs, in poor societies without much in the way of welfare, earn them respect and support regardless of their other activities. They are the biggest, most unified, most well-organised and disciplined faction outside of the Army. They’ve survived 80 years of persecution and aren’t going to go away no matter how many ‘leaders’ are arrested or TV stations closed down. And as the ‘opposition’ are united only by their opposition to the MB and range from Old Regime through the usual spectrum of self-interested crooks shouldering their own way to the trough to genuine social democrats I fear they’ll soon be back. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/54 "2013-07-04T13:20:02Z")
My fear is that Egypt’s social, economic and environmental situation is now so hopeless that no regime, however well intentioned and popularly legitimate, is likely to be able to meet the Egyptian people’s minimum expectations. And that’s based on the optomistic chance that a government can be created that is both popularly legitimate and relatively uncorrupt. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/55 "2013-07-04T13:25:14Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > My fear is that Egypt’s social, economic and environmental situation is now so hopeless that no regime, however well intentioned and popularly legitimate, is likely to be able to meet the Egyptian people’s minimum expectations. No bet I’m afraid. Quatar money has been keeping them afloat and Quatar support the MB. I expect that last thing Egypt needs is an IMF Loan on the usual ‘screw the poor’ terms. Especially, and you’ll have to forgive my cynicism here, when half of it will simply be looted into the private fortunes of Generals and the rest of the corrupt scum at the top of the pile. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/56 "2013-07-04T13:27:30Z")
When the mob removes the government once, it may be a “revolution”. Twice, it is becoming “mob rule”. And I am saying this as someone who is completely and utterly unsympathetic to “Muslim Brotherhood”. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/57 "2013-07-04T13:36:19Z")
I’ll admit to ignorance about the Egyptian constitution before it was suspended. But my understanding is in a series of back room negotiations prior to Morsi’s election he basically promised to govern as a pluralistic President, in exchange most of the political opposition sided with him in the election. His opponent ended up being a non-starter member of the old regime, and Morsi wins. But then while governing Morsi basically went back 100% on his promises. It would seem to me that whatever the form of Egypt’s constitution the President was too powerful. As an example, in a Westminster system someone wishing to become head of government could do exactly what Morsi did. But the moment he “turned” on his coalition partners he would lose his ability to govern, there’d be no confidence votes etc and new elections would have to be held. It seemed like whatever the form of Egypt’s constitution that brought Morsi into power it lacked the sort of protections needed to control for that sort of problem. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/58 "2013-07-04T13:51:52Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > I’ll admit to ignorance about the Egyptian constitution before it was suspended. But my understanding is in a series of back room negotiations prior to Morsi’s election he basically promised to govern as a pluralistic President, in exchange most of the political opposition sided with him in the election. His opponent ended up being a non-starter member of the old regime, and Morsi wins. But then while governing Morsi basically went back 100% on his promises. Basically. And then he decreed that as President he had near absolute powers immune from judicial oversight. He had to scrap most of that in the face of widespread unrest but he did force through a Constitution that most of the Opposition boycotted the drafting of and got 64% vote on a mere 33% turnout. None of this was the action of a democrat. It was a religious coup against the Revolution masked by a sham democratic process. [Useful BBC link](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20554079) > [@](#): > > The crisis began when the president issued the constitutional declaration on 22 November which stated that his decisions were “final and unchallengeable by any individual or body until a new constitution has been ratified and a new parliament has been elected”. > > The declaration also said the constituent assembly could not be dissolved by the judiciary, pre-empting any ruling by the Supreme Constitutional Court (SCC) on its legitimacy. Liberals, Christians and secularists said it was dominated by Islamists. > > The president portrayed his decree as an attempt to protect the transition to a constitutional democracy, but following days of protests he agreed to limit its scope to “sovereign matters”. However, Mr Morsi insisted on keeping his right to protect the constituent assembly. > > Despite that, members of the assembly began a marathon overnight session of voting on a rushed draft of the draft constitution on 29 November after the SCC announced that it would rule on whether the panel should be dissolved. > > The panel approved the draft - despite a boycott by secular and liberal parties and the Coptic Church - and sent it to Mr Morsi, who called a referendum. > > The move by the president and his Islamist allies caused further public outrage, and tens of thousands of people soon took to the streets of Cairo calling for Mr Morsi’s downfall. There were deadly clashes on 5 December when opposition demonstrators were confronted by Muslim Brotherhood supporters outside the presidential palace. > > On 8 December, the president bowed to the pressure and rescinded most of his 22 November decree. He did not, however, agree to the opposition’s demand that he postpone the referendum. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/59 "2013-07-04T14:36:24Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > When the mob removes the government once, it may be a “revolution”. Twice, it is becoming “mob rule”. And I am saying this as someone who is completely and utterly unsympathetic to “Muslim Brotherhood”. The Muslim Brotherhood played little or no role in the Revolution. They just were in the best position to hijack it afterwards. In those circumstances you just have to get back on the streets and restart the Revolution or lose all you fought for. They did not overthrow the Mubarak dictatorship just to have an Islamic State foisted on them. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2013, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550/60 "2013-07-04T17:06:44Z")
It seems appropriate, for Americans at least, on this day of all days to reflect on the difficulties, not merely of setting up a democracy, but of hanging onto it long enough to do you some good. I have told this story before, but a missionary from (IIRC) Tanzania was staying with us during the 1984 elections. And I will never forget how flabbergasted he was to hear Mondale, after he lost, go on TV and concede _and commit to working with Reagan_ for the good of the country. That was completely foreign to his experience. And yet it is something Americans take for granted. Until the Egyptians take things like that for granted, they will never have a functioning democracy, at least not for long. What’s the line about democracy in Africa - “One man, one vote - one time.” Regards, Shodan [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-now-what-civil-war/662550.md?page=4)