# Egypt on the verge of Islamist Revolution? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 11, 2006, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-on-the-verge-of-islamist-revolution/356425 "2006-05-11T21:29:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2006, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-on-the-verge-of-islamist-revolution/356425/1 "2006-05-11T21:29:32Z")
I’ve been reading about Egyptian society and religion and what roles it plays in shaping it, how the government ignores it and appeases Islamists in order for them to stay quiet. But my question is how much longer will the average Egyptian put up with constant corruption, inefficiency, bad economy, bad opportunities, and to lesser extents, peace with Israel and support of the Government from the United States? Considering the slogans ‘Islam is the Solution’ and the ability of the Muslim Brotherhood to invoke massive support on a grassroots level, how long is it before Egypt could become the Sunni version of Iran? And what would the consequences be if such a thing were to happen? ---
**Author:** ![George\_Kaplin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/3e96dc/32.png) [@George\_Kaplin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/George_Kaplin)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2006, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-on-the-verge-of-islamist-revolution/356425/2 "2006-05-11T21:50:11Z")
That sounds pretty interesting, **Ryan\_Liam**. Just out of curiosity, what have you been reading? ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2006, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-on-the-verge-of-islamist-revolution/356425/3 "2006-05-11T22:28:04Z")
[QUOTE=George Kaplin] That sounds pretty interesting, **Ryan\_Liam**. Just out of curiosity, what have you been reading? [/QUOTE] Michael Tottens blog, he’s been to Egypt and spoken to some bloggers who were for the liberalisation of their society and are alarmed (as he is) of the Islamization process which is taking place. > **[Home - Michael J. Totten](https://michaeltotten.com/)** > > \[et\_pb\_section fb\_built=”1″ next\_background\_color=”#f7f7f7″ admin\_label=”Hero Section” \_builder\_version=”4.21.0″ use\_background\_color\_gradient=”on” background\_color\_gradient\_stops=”rgba(0,0,0,0.4) 0%|rgba(0,0,0,0.4) 100%”... ---
**Author:** ![Menocchio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de053/32.png) [@Menocchio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Menocchio)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2006, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-on-the-verge-of-islamist-revolution/356425/4 "2006-05-11T22:43:07Z")
I know I should be thinking of the people of Egypt, or at least how a possible revolution would affect US interests. But I’m just remembering how the Taliban blew up those Buddhist statues… ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2006, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-on-the-verge-of-islamist-revolution/356425/5 "2006-05-11T23:04:24Z")
There is a difference, Menocchio. Those statues didn’t make Afghanistan anything like the money Egypt makes off its antiquities. ---
**Author:** ![Alien](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/57b2e6/32.png) [@Alien](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alien)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2006, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-on-the-verge-of-islamist-revolution/356425/6 "2006-05-11T23:51:43Z")
I wouldn’t put too much weight on what you have been reading. The government seems to control these sentiments well (as you probably know, when you see people demonstrating in Egypt it’s government-approved, or even staged). From what I’ve been reading (granted, not that much) there’s some unrest in poor city areas and a little in the south. But there’s a process taking place now for change of leadership. And it appears that the progressive Western-oriented wing will come out on top. So currently change from within seems more likely - but fewer restrictions will also make it easier for the Islamists. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2006, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-on-the-verge-of-islamist-revolution/356425/7 "2006-05-12T17:02:47Z")
> [@](#): > > I wouldn’t put too much weight on what you have been reading. The government seems to control these sentiments well (as you probably know, when you see people demonstrating in Egypt it’s government-approved, or even staged). That doesn’t mean anything, in fact, it only will provide ammunition for the opposition. > [@](#): > > From what I’ve been reading (granted, not that much) there’s some unrest in poor city areas and a little in the south. Which the majority of the _Urban_ population comes from. Unrest isn’t just the only factor in this, the change of Society from a secularist leaning authoritarian government to an Islamist orientated one will have profound changes in the way the country is governed. > [@](#): > > But there’s a process taking place now for change of leadership. And it appears that the progressive Western-oriented wing will come out on top. Cite? Western orientated leadership needs a support base, and from where I’m looking, Egyptian society which is pro Western is narrow or in the low percentages. So those pro Western leaders are going to need to accomodate Islamists with policies or order another bowt of repression. > [@](#): > > So currently change from within seems more likely - but fewer restrictions will also make it easier for the Islamists. Which means Islamists will be in a position where they cannot be removed, and can also gain hold on the levers of Government to cement their position. ---
**Author:** ![Alien](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/57b2e6/32.png) [@Alien](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alien)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2006, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-on-the-verge-of-islamist-revolution/356425/8 "2006-05-12T19:21:21Z")
[QUOTE=Ryan\_Liam] Which the majority of the _Urban_ population comes from. Unrest isn’t just the only factor in this, the change of Society from a secularist leaning authoritarian government to an Islamist orientated one will have profound changes in the way the country is governed. [/QUOTE] Muslim groups in Egypt do not have the same grassroot support as in other Arab countries. Neither are they as fundementalistic as we would expect based on our experience with Islamic movements elsewhere. The largest group, Muslim Brotherhood, has renounced violence and has joined with secular opposition groups. I’ve seen the occasional report of uproar in some poor city areas followed by descriptions of police violence. But it has more to do with poverty and general opposition to the regime than religious motives. Here’s a primer, sort of (make sure to read the whole thing if you start reading): [http://www.atimes.com/front/CJ31Aa01.html](http://www.atimes.com/front/CJ31Aa01.html) [QUOTE=Ryan\_Liam] Cite? Western orientated leadership needs a support base, and from where I’m looking, Egyptian society which is pro Western is narrow or in the low percentages. So those pro Western leaders are going to need to accomodate Islamists with policies or order another bowt of repression. [/QUOTE] Two factions have, silently, been questing to fill Mubarak’s position when he eventually steps down (or dies). The first one is the military/intelligence apparatus, lead by a general (forgot his name, but he’s well-known), the other is the group of Mubarak’s son Gamal, a pro-Western banker said to be in favor of change (though not necessarily democracy). Both of them are held in high regard by Mubarak, but recent events seems to position Gamal as the future head of state. I don’t have the cite I really wanted to give you, but here’s a little background: [http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5529166/](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5529166/) [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/27/AR2005072702296\_pf.html](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/27/AR2005072702296_pf.html) [QUOTE=Ryan\_Liam] Which means Islamists will be in a position where they cannot be removed, and can also gain hold on the levers of Government to cement their position. [/QUOTE] Quite true. But I fear a lot more for Saudi Arabia than I do for Egypt. ---
**Author:** ![Henry-Finland](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e99b99/32.png) [@Henry-Finland](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Henry-Finland)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2006, 10:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-on-the-verge-of-islamist-revolution/356425/9 "2006-05-28T10:21:46Z")
[QUOTE=Alien] \ But I fear a lot more for Saudi Arabia than I do for Egypt. [/QUOTE] I also feel that The House of Saudi is not in very good shape, nor Egypt. Plus that the Israel/Palestinian question has been locked. And that there will be a new war against Iran. So, as commenting on all this together, would just derail the OP, should we start a new thread about “The war with Iran?” or “Will ME burn within 2 years?” My take is “yes” to both questions, but I did not find through “search” any thread suitable… Henry