# Egypt - "The Nile Runs Red" **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 15, 2013, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360 "2013-08-15T22:18:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2013, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/1 "2013-08-15T22:18:26Z")
A good analysis of the situation. I am about as unsympathetic to Muslim Brotherhood as one can get, and I still think this is a good analysis of the situation and that US/Obama missed the chance to dampen it, and in the wake of the “no coup” coyness have become utterly irrelevant. [http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/nile-runs-red\_748465.html?page=1](http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/nile-runs-red_748465.html?page=1) As Fouad Ajami writes today: “When the Obama administration could not call the coup d’état by its name, we put on display our unwillingness to honor our own democratic creed…When our secretary of state opined that the army was ‘restoring democracy,’ we gave away the moral and strategic incoherence of an administration that has long lost its way.” … But because there was, the army’s outreach was a non-starter. From the Brotherhood’s perspective it was like being invited back in to your own wedding after being thrown out by the caterers to watch your bride married off to the bartender. To participate in a political system stewarded by the institution that had unconstitutionally removed its candidate from power would mean providing the cover of legitimacy for an objectively illegitimate process. The army knew it would have to put the Brotherhood down, and the Brotherhood knew it was coming, sometime after Ramadan. … For the last two-and-a-half years, Egyptians have behaved like spoiled children, trashing what they like because someone else will pay for it. Neither the United States nor Europe has the cash on hand right now, so the Gulf Arabs—the very same people the Egyptians typically blame for their problems with radical Islam—have agreed to extend Cairo a large line of credit. But eventually the Saudis, Emiratis, Kuwaitis and Qataris will tire of feeding 80 million people who hold them in contempt. When Egypt becomes more importunate, more tiresome, more dangerous, and the Arabs are no longer willing to pick up the check, what happens? What happens when the army proves that it is no more capable of fixing Egypt now than it was in the brief period following Mubarak’s exit? What happens when many now on the sidelines, or even standing against the Brotherhood, demand the return and resurrection of a political movement better organized and galvanized by a vendetta that it has been nurturing against the many millions of Egyptians who cheered to see their blood run? I see Egypt becoming Syria on steroids. Syria can be somewhat localized. Egypt is the biggest Arab country and the conflict there is going to be a lot worse. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2013, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/2 "2013-08-15T22:28:46Z")
So, what’s next – frogs, hail, lice? ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2013, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/3 "2013-08-15T22:34:35Z")
There are only two options in Egypt: 1. A pro-Western military dicatatorship 2. An Iranian style anti-Western theocracy Only a small segment of the population wants a Western European style democracy. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/4 "2013-08-16T00:00:34Z")
At least it wasn’t a coup! ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/5 "2013-08-16T01:54:33Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > At least it wasn’t a coup! I’d say the situation’s rather comparable to Romania in 1989. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/6 "2013-08-16T02:00:33Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > At least it wasn’t a coup! > [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > I’d say the situation’s rather comparable to Romania in 1989. Expand on that, please, **Qin Shi Huangdi**. And for open discussion, how would President Obama using the word “coup” affect his available options in responding to further developments in this situation, both locally and regionally? ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/7 "2013-08-16T02:03:32Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > . . . Only a small segment of the population wants a Western European style democracy. I would say, rather, that a large segment wants it…and that nobody has any idea how to implement it, or to safeguard it once implemented. The free elections that put Morsi in power were a very good first step…but Morsi promptly took steps to undermine that freedom. At that point, quis custodiet ipsos custodes. A democracy can only survive when the elected leadership is willing to step down if voted out. A friend of mine travelled widely in eastern Europe, and was in a Balkan nation during the U.S. election of 2000. People there would ask, in all seriousness, “What if George Bush refuses to relinquish office?” American democracy works, because that outcome was (and is) absolutely unthinkable. Egyptian democracy didn’t have that kind of level of assurance of its integrity. The ideal is still alive. The little mechanical details are the problem. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/8 "2013-08-16T02:26:24Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > I would say, rather, that a large segment wants it…and that nobody has any idea how to implement it, or to safeguard it once implemented. The free elections that put Morsi in power were a very good first step…but Morsi promptly took steps to undermine that freedom. Yes, and then his opponents took further steps. > [@](#): > > A democracy can only survive when the elected leadership is willing to step down if voted out. And if opposition groups work with the elected leadership (to whatever extent possible) while they are in office, and then seek further redress at the ballot box in their turn. Morsi and MB never had the chance to be voted out. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/9 "2013-08-16T02:55:00Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > Expand on that, please, **Qin Shi Huangdi**. I mean the coup occurred only after there was a popular movement against Morsi, rather than a bunch of officers secretly plotting like say in Chile. ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/10 "2013-08-16T03:44:02Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > And for open discussion, how would President Obama using the word “coup” affect his available options in responding to further developments in this situation, both locally and regionally? My understanding is that, under US law, any country that overthrows its democratically elected government automatically loses all US aid. By not calling it a coup, Obama could keep the aid to Egypt (and, arguably, our ability to influence the country) going. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 10:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/11 "2013-08-16T10:55:15Z")
The Army isn’t interested in ‘fixing’ Egypt. Ever since the Spring they’ve played the Long Game aimed at getting things back to Mubarak Without Mubarak. They have now succeeded in destroying The MB as a legitimate poitical actor (the MB played into the Army hands here both as a protest and s a government unwilling to resist acting on ‘winner takes all’), bloodying the hands of the rest of the opposition in the process. They have also reestablished the understanding that from now on the army and police will use brutal force against any dissent. And they have also established that there is nothing the West can or will do about it. I predict Egypt will now descent into a long algerian type civil war with the MB turning permanently away from democratic politics and the army (as happened in Algeria) staging outrages to justify an endless state of emergency and bloody brutal crackdowns on any dissent from any quarter. The old elites have defeated the revolution. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/12 "2013-08-16T13:38:07Z")
It might amaze some people to learn that the world doesn’t revolve around the United States. Sure, the Egyptian military likes its American aid, but if we think that stopping the aid would have made any difference, we have a false sense of importance. I believe the crackdown would have happened regardless of whether or not the US military aid was cut off. Thus, I don’t think Obama’s use or unuse of the word “coup” is just about as significant as the use of the word “terrorism” after a terror attack. ---
**Author:** ![Sicks\_Ate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/258eb7/32.png) [@Sicks\_Ate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sicks_Ate)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/13 "2013-08-16T13:42:10Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > It might amaze some people to learn that the world doesn’t revolve around the United States. Sure, the Egyptian military likes its American aid, but if we think that stopping the aid would have made any difference, we have a false sense of importance. I believe the crackdown would have happened regardless of whether or not the US military aid was cut off. > > Thus, I don’t think Obama’s use or unuse of the word “coup” is just about as significant as the use of the word “terrorism” after a terror attack. The reason Obama didn’t call it a coup (which it is) is because he’s as beholden to defense contractors as any other president. Unfortunately. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/14 "2013-08-16T14:38:41Z")
Also, ending the aid may lead to a war with Israel. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/15 "2013-08-16T14:44:43Z")
> [@Sicks\_Ate](#): > > The reason Obama didn’t call it a coup (which it is) is because he’s as beholden to defense contractors as any other president. Unfortunately. > [@Alessan](#): > > Also, ending the aid may lead to a war with Israel. Yeah, I think the MIC is just able to take advantage of a good situation for them. We give money to Egypt in large part to protect Israel, and the MIC is more than happy to sell Egypt the arms they want. Win-win, except for the Egyptian people. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/16 "2013-08-16T14:52:06Z")
> [@Sicks\_Ate](#): > > The reason Obama didn’t call it a coup (which it is) is because he’s as beholden to defense contractors as any other president. Unfortunately. There’s also the case of Pakistan. Aid was cut off after a coup. Their officers stopped being trained in the USA and when the USA needed Pakistan again it found it didn’t have a layer of sympatheic friends in the army and security services. Quite the opposite in fact. I can see where Obama is pragmatically coming from here. ---
**Author:** ![Sicks\_Ate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/258eb7/32.png) [@Sicks\_Ate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sicks_Ate)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/17 "2013-08-16T14:55:35Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Also, ending the aid may lead to a war with Israel. Ok. It can be dealt with then. > [@tagos](#): > > There’s also the case of Pakistan. Aid was cut off after a coup. Their officers stopped being trained in the USA and when the USA needed Pakistan again it found it didn’t have a layer of sympatheic friends in the army and security services. > > Quite the opposite in fact. I can see where Obama is pragmatically coming from here. Sucking the dicks of otherwise unfriendly countries to that we can twist their arms into supporting mystery future military actions? Very pragmatic. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/18 "2013-08-16T15:10:58Z")
> [@Sicks\_Ate](#): > > Ok. It can be dealt with then. > > Sucking the dicks of otherwise unfriendly countries to that we can twist their arms into supporting mystery future military actions? Very pragmatic. Pakistan wasn’t that unfriendly. Besides the defining feature of US foreign policy has always been ‘Uncle Sam has never met a bloody-thirsty corrupt right-wing despot it didn’t like. Especially if United Fruit, Standard Oil or Halliburton stood to make a buck’. So no lectures on ‘pragmatism’. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/19 "2013-08-16T16:46:10Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > There’s also the case of Pakistan. Aid was cut off after a coup. Their officers stopped being trained in the USA and when the USA needed Pakistan again it found it didn’t have a layer of sympatheic friends in the army and security services. Nitpick, due to the nuclear programme, not due to a coup. It was an elected government at the time. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/20 "2013-08-16T16:48:11Z")
Isn’t it obvious why Obama leans to favor the Muslim Brotherhood? I mean, c’mon, people, connect the dot! [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360.md?page=2)