# Egypt - "The Nile Runs Red" **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 15, 2013, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360 "2013-08-15T22:18:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/21 "2013-08-16T16:51:04Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > I would say, rather, that a large segment wants it…and that nobody has any idea how to implement it, or to safeguard it once implemented. The free elections that put Morsi in power were a very good first step…but Morsi promptly took steps to undermine that freedom. At that point, quis custodiet ipsos custodes. A democracy can only survive when the elected leadership is willing to step down if voted out. > . Basic principal of democracy is that a party which wins the election has the mandate, nay the duty to put forward its manifesto. If the electorate do not like it, they can remove them at the next election. Looking at what Morsi did, I would say it is not particularly more draconians than say what Tony Blair did to UK civil liberties after 1997 and especially 2001. Even accepting the obvious differences between the UK and Egypt, the fact is that the UK has a tradition of defeated parties surrendering power, and that traditions comes through experience, not outside dictate. Egypt was not given the opportunity to so choose. If Morsi had refused to leave power when his term was up or he had been defeated in an election or prevented such an outcome from happening, then such actions would have been defendable. Here he still had his term and the decision of the ballot box was overturned by street power. That is a terrible precedent. ---
**Author:** ![Laggard](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de053/32.png) [@Laggard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Laggard)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/22 "2013-08-16T17:34:01Z")
Does this have the capability of turning into a civil war in the style of the mess in Syria? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/23 "2013-08-16T17:40:12Z")
> [@Laggard](#): > > Does this have the capability of turning into a civil war in the style of the mess in Syria? Syria’s civil war is very much on sectarian lines, less on islamist vs. military/secularist lines. Egypt’s would be the reverse. Don’t think it would be less bloody because of that. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/24 "2013-08-16T18:28:28Z")
> [@Laggard](#): > > Does this have the capability of turning into a civil war in the style of the mess in Syria? I think an Algeria type insurgency is a much more likely outcome. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/25 "2013-08-16T19:29:20Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Also, ending the aid may lead to a war with Israel. And the Egyptians may decide to turn to their old buddies, the Russians, instead if we cut off aid. ---
**Author:** ![Fir\_na\_tine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a587f6/32.png) [@Fir\_na\_tine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fir_na_tine)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/26 "2013-08-16T20:22:30Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > I think an Algeria type insurgency is a much more likely outcome. Could you expand on what that means - for those of us who don’t remember anything about Algeria. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/27 "2013-08-16T21:01:52Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > A good analysis of the situation. I am about as unsympathetic to Muslim Brotherhood as one can get, and I still think this is a good analysis of the situation and that US/Obama missed the chance to dampen it, and in the wake of the “no coup” coyness have become utterly irrelevant. > > [http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/nile-runs-red\_748465.html?page=1](http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/nile-runs-red_748465.html?page=1) > > As Fouad Ajami writes today: “When the Obama administration could not call the coup d’état by its name, we put on display our unwillingness to honor our own democratic creed…When our secretary of state opined that the army was ‘restoring democracy,’ we gave away the moral and strategic incoherence of an administration that has long lost its way.” > … > But because there was, the army’s outreach was a non-starter. From the Brotherhood’s perspective it was like being invited back in to your own wedding after being thrown out by the caterers to watch your bride married off to the bartender. To participate in a political system stewarded by the institution that had unconstitutionally removed its candidate from power would mean providing the cover of legitimacy for an objectively illegitimate process. The army knew it would have to put the Brotherhood down, and the Brotherhood knew it was coming, sometime after Ramadan. > … > For the last two-and-a-half years, Egyptians have behaved like spoiled children, trashing what they like because someone else will pay for it. Neither the United States nor Europe has the cash on hand right now, so the Gulf Arabs—the very same people the Egyptians typically blame for their problems with radical Islam—have agreed to extend Cairo a large line of credit. But eventually the Saudis, Emiratis, Kuwaitis and Qataris will tire of feeding 80 million people who hold them in contempt. When Egypt becomes more importunate, more tiresome, more dangerous, and the Arabs are no longer willing to pick up the check, what happens? > > What happens when the army proves that it is no more capable of fixing Egypt now than it was in the brief period following Mubarak’s exit? What happens when many now on the sidelines, or even standing against the Brotherhood, demand the return and resurrection of a political movement better organized and galvanized by a vendetta that it has been nurturing against the many millions of Egyptians who cheered to see their blood run? > > I see Egypt becoming Syria on steroids. Syria can be somewhat localized. Egypt is the biggest Arab country and the conflict there is going to be a lot worse. Their analysis of the situation is “Obama’s fault” and you agree with it. Shocker. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2013, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/28 "2013-08-17T03:11:51Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > It might amaze some people to learn that the world doesn’t revolve around the United States. Sure, the Egyptian military likes its American aid, but if we think that stopping the aid would have made any difference, we have a false sense of importance. I believe the crackdown would have happened regardless of whether or not the US military aid was cut off. > > Thus, I don’t think Obama’s use or unuse of the word “coup” is just about as significant as the use of the word “terrorism” after a terror attack. I will take this rare opportunity to agree with **Bob** here. Saudi Arabia is going to be more than willing to shell out cash to keep the MB from consolidating power in Egypt. Essentially we are saying that we are all in favor of democracy in Egypt as long as the MB is a minority player in whatever government results from democracy. And if the MB does gain a majority, then we’re all in favor of Mulligan Democracy. The military can see what is going on in Syria, where at least 10x the death toll has ensued, and they know we’re not going to do anything. Nor should we. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2013, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/29 "2013-08-17T04:39:04Z")
> [@Fir\_na\_tine](#): > > Could you expand on what that means - for those of us who don’t remember anything about Algeria. Islamists won the elections. The military cancelled the results and outlawed them. The islamists started an insurgency which lasted for more then a decade. [QUOTE=Alessan] Also, ending the aid may lead to a war with Israel. [/QUOTE] I don’t think so. Egypt is unlikely to start a war that all parties within know that they will not win. At the same time, an Israeli attack in Sinai which shuts down the Suez Canal is very difficult politically. In 1967, you had not seen the rise of China, the Far East, the Gulf States, India etc. The canal is a lot more important to world trade now than in June 1967 and anyone who attacks the canal or causes its closure is going to incur the wrath of some very powerful nations. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2013, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/30 "2013-08-17T06:37:08Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > It might amaze some people to learn that the world doesn’t revolve around the United States. Sure, the Egyptian military likes its American aid, but if we think that stopping the aid would have made any difference, we have a false sense of importance. I believe the crackdown would have happened regardless of whether or not the US military aid was cut off. Exactly. If I were an Egyptian, why would I give a lukewarm turd what people on the other side of the world think about me? However, my understanding was that the aid for this year (fiscal or however they define it) has already been delivered. So they should have “cut” the aid with a wink and nod to Egypt that when things “settle down” (in exactly six to nine months when the news networks have grown tired of following this story) aid will resume. Nothing changes and no one cares. That’s diplomacy. > [@Alessan](#): > > Also, ending the aid may lead to a war with Israel. Really? I’m asking, as I honestly don’t know how likely this is. But doesn’t Egypt have enough troubles already without taking on the IDF? I could see it as a Wag The Dog tactic, focusing everyone’s rage on the external enemy. But when that external enemy can casually beat the snot out of you without blinking… ---
**Author:** ![williambaskerville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f14d63/32.png) [@williambaskerville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/williambaskerville)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2013, 7:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360/31 "2013-08-17T07:03:43Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I will take this rare opportunity to agree with **Bob** here. Saudi Arabia is going to be more than willing to shell out cash to keep the MB from consolidating power in Egypt. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE pledged 12 billion dollars in aid to Egypt after the ousting of Morsi. [http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-10/kuwait-egypt-aid-pushes-gulf-pledges-to-12-billion-in-24-hours.html](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-10/kuwait-egypt-aid-pushes-gulf-pledges-to-12-billion-in-24-hours.html) That amount puts the US military aid of 1.3 billion in some perspective. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/egypt-the-nile-runs-red/666360.md?page=1)