# Election 2004 Predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 16, 2004, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744 "2004-01-16T12:50:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2004, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/261 "2004-02-11T03:02:45Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Dean’s on Kerry’s shit list, not on his short list. That was good! 🙂 > [@](#): > > So, how about some veep predictions? I’m thinking it’ll be Edwards. I can’t see Kerry inviting any of the dropouts so far to be his running mate, nor can I see him asking Clark to be his #2. (Nor can I see Clark wanting to be veep.) Edwards, by not attacking other Dems, has not only helped keep the focus on Bush, but has kept the veep possibility open. He’d almost surely accept if offered, since he’s not running for re-election as Senator from NC. Someone should open a thread titled: [Who’s the best VP choice for Kerry.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=237317&highlight=kerry) 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2004, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/262 "2004-02-11T12:38:01Z")
Well, Edwards has his chance now to prove whatever he wanted to prove. I am not saying that he will do anything, but all Edwards supporters have said that if he is going to have a chance he needs to be in a two-man race. Clark is leaving now, so he gets what he wants. He should at least hang around till the next debate and then maybe super tuesday. I’d go to Nevada if I were him depending on if its possible. If he could pick out another win he may get a little comeback mo. But the fat lady is certainly warming up. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2004, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/263 "2004-02-11T13:56:04Z")
> [@](#): > > I’d go to Nevada if I were him depending on if its possible. If he could pick out another win he may get a little comeback mo. He’s probably already booked solid in Wisconsin until Tuesday. Although it’s not a bad idea, since Kerry’s got a huge lead in Wisconsin anyway. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2004, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/264 "2004-02-11T14:56:13Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > That was good! 🙂 Thanks! > [@](#): > > Someone should open a thread titled: [Who’s the best VP choice for Kerry.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=237317&highlight=kerry) 🙂 Thanks for pointing that out! I was out of town from 1/30 to 2/1, when it had been in play before. And in that thread, they’d been discussing which Southern states the Dems might stand a chance in, so [I started a thread about that](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=239232). ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2004, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/265 "2004-02-11T19:38:15Z")
My points, in sum: 1. The Democratic party is capable of winning Southern states in a presidential election, if they nominate the right guy. (_See_: Clinton, Bill.) 2. John Kerry is not the right guy. 3. John Kerry said that “[e]veryone always makes the mistake of looking South,” which gives a pretty clear indication that he is ceding the South. Even if he were not _ceding_ the South, I do not believe he is capable of winning there. 4. It is a huge mistake for the Democratic Party to write off the South, as I’ve explained _ad nauseum_ in the Kerry thread. You can _theoretically_ win the presidency without taking a Southern state, but in practice, it’s damn hard. Furthermore, writing off the region frees the Republicans to focus their energies (and money) on Northern and Western swing states. To use a military metaphor, Democrats have to take the battle to the enemy in the South, and not retreat to the north side of the Mason-Dixon line. 5. Dean (though he did it clumsily) at least _tried_ to embrace the Southern working class, which _ought_ to be a natural constituency of the Democrats. (I didn’t hold his Confederate flag remark against him. In fact, the only “outrage” I heard over the remark was coming from Republicans, who wouldn’t have voted for him anyway.) Dean, unlike Kerry, has a moderate record which would have allowed him to run to the center after the primaries. Kerry’s wins in TN and VA say nothing about his ability to win there in the fall. Democratic primary voters are the most liberal subset of Southerners. He convinced roughly half of them in VA to vote for him. (Given his record, it was presumably the most liberal half.) Do you really think that means he’ll draw critical swing voters in the South come November? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2004, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/266 "2004-02-11T19:53:43Z")
You’ve \*still \* provided exactly zero factual, supportable basis for this repeated assertion that Kerry is indeed _planning_ to cede the South, or anywhere else. “Do you really think that means he’ll draw critical swing voters in the South come November?” you ask. Well, that’s what the VA/TN results do seem to imply, right? You have no \*fact-derived \* reason to think the opposite. You have no better idea to offer the Dems at this point other than what you can \*reasonably \* expect them to \*be \* doing, either. See how this “argument” of yours looks? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2004, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/267 "2004-02-11T20:10:45Z")
All Kerry has to do is get his rich, foreign born wife\* to give Nader a few mil to stay out of the race, and he should be able to take Florida. Just kidding about the methodology, but the Pubs have to be extremely nervous that Nader will sit this election out. Maybe they’ll start bashing Kerry’s environnmental record in order to goad Nader’s supporters to get him to run. \*how’s that for a glimpse of gratuitous campaign slurs we may soon be seeing 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2004, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/268 "2004-02-11T20:23:45Z")
No third candidate is going to be a factor this time, as we’ve discussed here before on Nader/Green threads. Anybody who thinks Bush should go is going to vote Kerry, and campaign hard for him too. Bush’s claim to be a “uniter” has turned out to be true in a way. You’re right about the upcoming rich-bitch slurs against the Missus, of course. But it won’t matter once the RNC rehires the guys who did the Mel Carnahan and Paul Wellstone jobs for them. How’s that for a conspiracy theory, huh? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2004, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/269 "2004-02-11T20:48:06Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > No third candidate is going to be a factor this time, as we’ve discussed here before on Nader/Green threads. Anybody who thinks Bush should go is going to vote Kerry, and campaign hard for him too. Bush’s claim to be a “uniter” has turned out to be true in a way. Never underestimate what the extremes of the political spectrum will do. Perhaps Kerry will do an end run and offer Nader a cabinate position-- 3rd assistant junior Undersecretary of the Interior. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2004, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/270 "2004-02-11T21:17:03Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > “Do you really think that means he’ll draw critical swing voters in the South come November?” you ask. Well, that’s what the VA/TN results do seem to imply, right? You have no \*fact-derived \* reason to think the opposite. Facts?! You want _facts_?! Sir, I traffic only in unsupported opinions! But since you insist, I shall depart from my usual pattern. Here are your facts: > [@](#): > > …In Missouri, Kerry’s vote share was 19 points lower among independents than among Democrats, and another seven points lower among Republicans than among independents. Edwards’ trend moved in the other direction: He scored five points higher among independents than among Democrats, and another nine points higher among Republicans than among independents… > > …In Oklahoma, Kerry’s vote share was 11 points lower among independents than among Democrats, and another 11 points lower among Republicans than among independents…Edwards, on the other hand, scored six points higher among independents, and two points higher among Republicans, than among Democrats… > > …In South Carolina, Kerry’s vote share was 11 points lower among independents than among Democrats, and another six points lower among conservatives than among moderates. Again, Edwards reversed the curve: He scored five points higher among independents than among Democrats, and another six points higher among Republicans than among independents… > > …Tuesday, the pattern was particularly stark. In Tennessee, Kerry’s vote share fell from 48 percent of liberals to 39 percent of moderates to 32 percent of conservatives. Edwards went the other way, attracting 26 percent of liberals, 32 percent of moderates, and 35 percent of conservatives… [Cite.](http://slate.msn.com/id/2095311/) Like I said, Kerry is winning the primaries by winning over liberal voters. He seems to have very little appeal to swing voters. If you want to win swing voters in November, Edwards is the man. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2004, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/271 "2004-02-11T21:18:09Z")
I don’t underestimate them, I don’t even see them. What noises have you been hearing about Nader or anyone else? What popular groundswell do you see? 'Tain’t there this time. Might as well wonder what job Bush would offer Ross Perot for \*his \* support, huh? ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2004, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/272 "2004-02-11T21:31:22Z")
Don’t underestimate Nader’s smarts. I’ll be very surprised if he runs again, but I won’t be surprised to hear him keep hinting about it as long as he can. He knows that the Dems are terrified of a repeat of 2000, and that they’ll do a certain amount to appease him. As long as he keeps making noises about it, he can exert a modest pressure on the Dems not to run too far to the right. Blackmail? Sure. But that’s politics. Daniel ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2004, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/273 "2004-02-11T22:05:17Z")
> [@](#): > > …Tuesday, the pattern was particularly stark. In Tennessee, Kerry’s vote share fell from 48 percent of liberals to 39 percent of moderates to 32 percent of conservatives. Edwards went the other way, attracting 26 percent of liberals, 32 percent of moderates, and 35 percent of conservatives… So, what do we have? Kerry ran ahead of Edwards among TN/VA liberals and moderates, but even with him among conservatives. To me, that ‘starkly’ says Edwards wouldn’t be as good a candidate in the South as Kerry would be. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2004, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/274 "2004-02-11T22:08:32Z")
I agree. Unless it can be shown that Edwards (or anyone else) gets a larger **absolute** number of moderate/independent votes, then the fact that he gets a relatively larger number is meaningless. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2004, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/275 "2004-02-11T23:00:53Z")
Well, if Kerry gets the nomination I can only say “Watch and learn.” Nothing will solidify the South like an old-line liberal. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2004, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/276 "2004-02-12T00:51:50Z")
> [@](#): > > Well, if Kerry gets the nomination I can only say “Watch and learn.” You’ve said that PLENTY of times already. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2004, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/277 "2004-02-12T14:29:14Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > You’ve said that PLENTY of times already. Amen! **spoke** , unless you’re really enjoying the role of board curmudgeon, this is getting a little tired. Daniel ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2004, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/278 "2004-02-12T15:03:59Z")
> [@Left Hand of Dorkness](#): > > Amen! **spoke** , unless you’re really enjoying the role of board curmudgeon, this is getting a little tired. > > Daniel The mind boggles at the thought of anyone curmudgeonly enough to be recognized as a curmudgeon among Dopers. It’s like identifying someone as a conservative among Freepers. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2004, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/279 "2004-02-12T16:14:14Z")
> [@Evil Captor](#): > > The mind boggles at the thought of anyone curmudgeonly enough to be recognized as a curmudgeon among Dopers. It’s like identifying someone as a conservative among Freepers. :mad: Bah! In my day, you woulda been horsewhipped for such impertinence! Daniel ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2004, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/280 "2004-02-12T16:15:16Z")
SInce this is a prediction thread, I’ll throw mine out first and then get to my reasons why. GWB will defeat Kerry. He will have over 300 electoral votes in doing so. Here’s why. And keep in mind the following is opinion based on observation. 1. A non-southern, non-moderate democrat cannot get elected president. The political dynamics of the country simply will not allow it. See Clinton and Carter and compare them to McGovern, Mondale and Dukakis. 2. In our two-party system, about a third of the electorate will vote for the Democrat regardless of who it is. Another third will vote for the Republican. Who are the remaining third? You guessed it. The moderates. They are the ones who will vote thier pocketbook and not thier ideology. Unless the economy takes a nosedive (and current trends show this not to be the case) Bush will be re-elected. I know many of you can’t stand him, but remember this…the further left or right you are, the more of a minority opinion you become. Your passion simply will not translate to numbers in the voting booth. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744.md?page=15)