# Election 2004 Predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 16, 2004, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744 "2004-01-16T12:50:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2004, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/121 "2004-01-28T13:26:52Z")
Note to self: [ul][li]Never play poker with a man named "Doc’[/li][li]Never get involved in a land war in Asia [/li][li]Never match wits with **RTFirefly** when death, or champagne, is on the line[/ul] [/li] Inconceivable! Regards, Shodan Enjoy the champagne, **RT**. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2004, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/122 "2004-01-28T13:46:08Z")
And my idiot friend just confirmed his offer of 500-1 odds for me. Our $50 - $25,000 bet is on. I quote his wife “You better not lose”. ---
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2004, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/123 "2004-01-28T15:33:03Z")
Any way I can get in on that action? Bush won’t get reelected with a 500 to 1 chance if he was running against the green party. Oh, I had a nice synopsis of the race typed out as well, but I’ll have to give the short version now because some computer in the internet decided to piss me off. Dean is toast, unless he does better. Okay that was written to be intentionally shady sounding. But it seems that these short intervals between elections tend to make people pick winners. I mean nobody knew that kerry would be in the position that he is now? Dean lost Iowa for many reasons, but one of the main ones that I’ve heard is that Kerry’s ground organization in Iowa was much better than anyone elses. This apparently got him the win in NH as well. If Dean had managed to win Iowa I doubt that he would have lost NH either. Based on this turn of events, I’ll say that its probably not looking good for Dean. Dean had been claiming, and many of us believed that he could change the way that politics work. Dean was supposed to turn out new voters. That hasn’t happened to the extent that was thought. His defeat in Iowa was very bad and his second place in NH isn’t enviable either. If he had come out with a close second within a few % of Kerry then I could concieve of it happeneing. However, Dean’s got a lot of grassroots. Sure, it may only be a tiny percent of the electorate, but those 600k supporters for dean can keep him going on life support for as long as he wants. Clark is looking real bad here considering that he skipped Iowa. Ditto for Joementum. But I gotta admit. Thank God for Lieberman for giving us the most rediculous way to sum up his joke of a cantidacy. Joementum is terrific! Clark isn’t looking good. He skipped Iowa and NH wasn’t a sure win, so he is gonna be scratching for support. [http://www.pkarchive.org/2004DataCenter.html](http://www.pkarchive.org/2004DataCenter.html) THis website is a great resource for judging the 2/3 states. looks like Edwards has SC locked up. So, here’s how I call it. [http://americanresearchgroup.com/scdebate/](http://americanresearchgroup.com/scdebate/) this also seems to suggest that he holds peoples attention the best of all candidates. But then again, Clark will win Oklahoma. But will it do anything for him? So with 1% of all primaries and cauces reporting, I am ready to make the call. I say it will be John Kerry will get the nod. No, but that’s only just so I can go on the record. In my opinion I think it will be JFK but I almost equally belive it will be John Edwards. If John Edwards were in the lead now he’d be unbeatable. I think John Edwards is recently getting attention because he wears well, and the more people get to know him they like his positive message. If the process were longer I would give it to him as well. The short schedule is working against him though. Anyway to me its simply a question of “Just how much attention can he get” Thats all he needs to be able to pull into slot number 2. Once he gets there, he’s got it sealed. In fact if JE manages to get into slot number 2 in short enough order, i think he’ll be fine. I for one am going to be interested. I like the idea of a long, drawn-out primary as long as it doesnt’ get too bloody. It just gives Bush less time to use his money. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2004, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/124 "2004-01-28T15:36:50Z")
Delegates Total Delegates Kerry 84,229 39% 13 94 Dean 57,788 26% 9 113 Clark 27,254 13% 0 30 Edwards 26,416 12% 0 36 Lieberman 18,829 9% 0 25 Kucinich 3,104 1% 0 2 Sharpton 345 0% 0 4 One hundred percent reporting results. Yeah, I can’t format. ---
**Author:** ![sibyl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b9e5f3/32.png) [@sibyl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sibyl)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2004, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/125 "2004-01-29T01:50:15Z")
Wow, lots of people here suckered in by the agenda of the media. New Hampshire means very little. It has a very poor record predicting the winners of the nomination. The top two in the state were both from _neighboring states_. This is some kind of indication of anything? :rolleyes: Dean’s campaign is over. He isn’t polling strongly in _any_ of the states. The state he is counting on, Missouri, has him at 5% or so. None of the others have him beyond the 3 or 4. Kerry has a whole new ballgame to face. He might win a couple, but he will in no way run away with anything. If his history actually gets out (i.e. the media stops being his free advertising) this could be his death knell. Edwards has a lot to go up against. He hasn’t been strong on any issues. The only state he is strong in is South Carolina, and that lead isn’t set in stone by any means. Clark is actually way way stronger than any of the other candidates going into this. He had a horrible weak with the media in NH. The debate was a setup for him, he was never mentioned except to ostracize him for something he said, etc. And he still pulled 3rd place. Hes polling very strong in Oklahoma, Arizona, and New Mexico. Depending on how the debate goes I’d say he’ll actually be the big winner of Feb. 3rd and get some much needed attention. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2004, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/126 "2004-01-29T01:57:15Z")
OK, then, tough guy… 😉 Make your call. Everyone give me the order of finish for Kerry Dean Edwards Clark Lieberman Kucinich Sharpton for Oklahoma South Carolina Missouri Arizona Delaware Michigan (Feb 7) New Mexico Washington (Feb 7) Let’s not always see the same hands. RTFirefly, John Mace, and furt are our leaders so far! **sibyl**? You go first. ---
**Author:** ![sibyl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b9e5f3/32.png) [@sibyl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sibyl)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2004, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/127 "2004-01-29T02:02:15Z")
Delaware Kerry Clark Edwards South Carolina Edwards Clark Kerry Arizona Clark Kerry Dean New Mexico Clark Kerry Edwards Oklahoma Clark Kerry Edwards Missouri Kerry Edwards Clark Michigan Kerry Clark Edwards North Dakota Kerry Clark Edwards Washington Clark Kerry Edwards Did top 3 for each state (and added North Dakota for Feb. 3rd). ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2004, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/128 "2004-01-29T02:06:03Z")
Kerry - 1 Dean - 2 Edwards - 3 Clark - 4 Lieberman - 5 Kucinich - 7 Sharpton - 6 But I think Lieberman will drop out after next week. I don’t understand Kucinich’s trip point for dropping out. If he hasn’t done so yet, I can’t figure out what revelation he’s waiting for. Dean will regain some of his momentum, but won’t give Kerry a real run for his money. Clark will continue to sink and Edwards will rise, but the latter won’t overtake Dean. How’s that for being specific??? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2004, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/129 "2004-01-29T02:10:23Z")
Oops. Didn’t read you whole post, **JC**. My prediction was for the final final, not any one particular state’s results. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2004, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/130 "2004-01-29T02:18:21Z")
I’ll accept either. But bonus bragging rights are awarded for calling each state. Be warned! And sibyl is right! Add North Dakota to the list. I was trying to do that from memory. And who ever remembers North Dakota? Certainly not my mom…she’s from _South_ Dakota. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2004, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/131 "2004-01-29T03:33:00Z")
A: What John Mace said, except I’m not sure about his Kunich-Sharpton. K’s going to beat S. My bad state by state estimates… Generally, I see Kerry Dean Edwards. South Carolina Edwards Kerry Dean In the south, Edwards has a _slim_ chance of passing Dean. In the north, Dean has a slim chance of passing Edwards. So, outside of South Carolina, these are my _second_ guesses for specific states Delaware Kerry Dean Edwards Arizona Kerry Dean Edwards New Mexico Kerry Dean Edwards Oklahoma Kerry Edwards Dean Missouri Kerry Edwards Dean Michigan Kerry Dean Edwards North Dakota Dean Kerry Edwards Washington Dean Kerry Edwards The thing is… yeah. I see a potential for Edwards to pass Dean starting at the end of Super Tuesday. But not before then. If Dean falls significantly third at any point in Super Tuesday, Edwards might have a chance against Kerry. But it’s doubtful. I don’t think the Kerry-Dean-Edwards one two three is going to change much. Barring unforseen scandal. ---
**Author:** ![Stoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stoid/32/272_2.png) [@Stoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stoid)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2004, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/132 "2004-01-29T03:33:26Z")
> [@sibyl](#): > > Clark is actually way way stronger than any of the other candidates going into this. He had a horrible weak with the media in NH. The debate was a setup for him, he was never mentioned except to ostracize him for something he said, etc. And he still pulled 3rd place. > > Hes polling very strong in Oklahoma, Arizona, and New Mexico. Depending on how the debate goes I’d say he’ll actually be the big winner of Feb. 3rd and get some much needed attention. Your mouth to God’s ear. Or keyboard to screen, as the case may be. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2004, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/133 "2004-01-29T03:41:02Z")
In the north, Dean has a slim chance of passing Kerry. ---
**Author:** ![Jello](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f05b48/32.png) [@Jello](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jello)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2004, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/134 "2004-01-29T03:59:26Z")
> [@](#): > > Originally Posted by sibyl > > Clark is actually way way stronger than any of the other candidates going into this. He had a horrible weak with the media in NH. The debate was a setup for him, he was never mentioned except to ostracize him for something he said, etc. And he still pulled 3rd place. > > Hes polling very strong in Oklahoma, Arizona, and New Mexico. Depending on how the debate goes I’d say he’ll actually be the big winner of Feb. 3rd and get some much needed attention. I disagree. Sure, some of his debate questions were too harsh, but he answered them all very poorly, and then appeared on Meet the Press on Sunday and got the same questions again, answering them just as poorly. He could have had a staff member look into Bush’s service with the National Guard; he could have refined his answers on any of the questions. But when he was on-air, he couldn’t even answer a simple question on his position on abortion without fumbling. The more people get acquainted with Clark, the less they’ll like him, I think. Once you brush past the biography he’s not much of a candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2004, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/135 "2004-01-29T04:49:37Z")
On reviews, I didn’t see anybody summarizing the results for the New Hampshire primary, so here it is. Apologies if anyone has already done so, and apologies if I’ve left anyone off the list – some of the longer posts i just scrolled though, if the predictions were buried in a lot of text I would have missed them. Actual Results \* Me \* Codzilla \* Spoke- Kerry Clark Kerry Dean Dean Dean Clark Edwards Clark Kerry Edwards Kerry Edwards Lieberman Dean Clark Lieberman Kucinic Looks like Codzilla nailed the winner. I correctly predicted Dean would claim second place and none of us got any of the others. Good thing real money wasn’t riding on this thing. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2004, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/136 "2004-01-29T04:56:38Z")
[QUOTE=Jonathan Chance] OK, then, tough guy… 😉 Make your call. Everyone give me the order of finish for Oklahoma – Kerry Clark Dean Edwards South Carolina – Clark Edwards Kerry Dean Missouri – Dean Kerry Clark Edwards Arizona – Clark Dean Kerry Edwards Delaware – Kerry Clark Dean Edwards Michigan (Feb 7) – Clark Dean Edwards Kerry New Mexico – Dean Edwards Kerry Clark Washington (Feb 7) – Clark Kerry Dean Edwards ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2004, 8:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/137 "2004-01-29T08:26:36Z")
> [@](#): > > New Hampshire means very little. It has a very poor record predicting the winners of the nomination. True, but I think New Hampshire and Iowa have only picked the same Democrat twice, and that guy has gotten the nomination both times. > [@](#): > > Dean’s campaign is over. He isn’t polling strongly in any of the states. The state he is counting on, Missouri, has him at 5% or so. None of the others have him beyond the 3 or 4. No argument there. He hired a new campaign manager today and says he’s going to compete in all the states next week. Some of his advisers were telling him to pick his battles and concentrate on Michigan in two weeks, which he seems to be resisting for the most part. > [@](#): > > Kerry has a whole new ballgame to face. He might win a couple, but he will in no way run away with anything. If his history actually gets out (i.e. the media stops being his free advertising) this could be his death knell. I think he can stand up to scrutiny as well as anybody else. > [@](#): > > Edwards has a lot to go up against. He hasn’t been strong on any issues. The only state he is strong in is South Carolina, and that lead isn’t set in stone by any means. True. > [@](#): > > Clark is actually way way stronger than any of the other candidates going into this. He had a horrible weak with the media in NH. The debate was a setup for him, he was never mentioned except to ostracize him for something he said, etc. And he still pulled 3rd place. I disagree entirely. Clark campaigned in New Hampshire ALONE for five weeks and barely beat out Edwards for third. He was going to be the anti-Dean, but Dean is no longer the leader. Instead, he finds himself competing with Kerry, and it’s not going well for him. Veterans are mostly going for Kerry, and if Clark can’t get even them, I think it removes a lot of the lustre from his resume. > [@](#): > > Hes polling very strong in Oklahoma, Arizona, and New Mexico. To me, poll results don’t matter right now unless they came after New Hampshire and the bounce Kerry will get from a big win. ---
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2004, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/138 "2004-01-29T12:22:08Z")
This is another reason why I think Edwards might be the best. It seems to be a fact of life that whoever is the eventual nominee is bound to get Gored by the press. I don’t really understand this at all, considering how the media is so liberal :rolleyes: Well, anyway, unless the press has somehow had enough blood at Dean’s expense (which I doubt) the next cantidate that climbs to the top is bound to get slaughtered like Dean. Everyone has their dark spots. The question is which of the cantidates that we have now would do the best shrugging off the media craziness. At first I thought this would be Dean. One of the main problems about getting Gored is that the media will try to portray them as those who will do anything to win, and will flip-flop on positions easily. Dean normally didn’t respond to the media when he said something controversial. This seemed to work good at the beginning. I seemed to feel that Dean was going to pass the media BS tester simply because he had strong positions and he attracted people because of his steadfast positions. At least this is the way it appeared. So the media gored him with other “negative” aspects of his character. If Dean gets the nomination, I think it would be pretty good considering how he has already been through media hell. Kerry seems the most likely cantidate to get Gored. Imagine if the situation in Iraq worsens. What if he criticizes the president for taking us to war. Then I see the headlines and the talking heads repeating these memes in the following order. Senator Kerry, How do you say you disagree with the way the war has gone when you voted for it in the Senate? Senator Kerry, drawing fire today for his war vote, complained it was the wrong war at the wrong time Senator Kerry, heavily criticized for being hypocritical about his Iraq War vote, criticized Bush again today about the situation in Iraq Kerry has tons of flip flops like this in his voting record just waiting to get gored. Clark I can’t say much about, as I haven’t seen the way he handles himself. I don’t really know how much he has to waffle about, as his life as a private citizen is pretty short. Edwards is the one who I think can truely wiggle his way out. Edwards is so good at it, that although you know he is full of shit, you really don’t care because he’s so darn good at it. His reassuring demeanor will go over very well, I believe. Thoughts? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2004, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/139 "2004-01-29T13:21:51Z")
Thanks, EC! I’d forgotten to do that! You’re the official helper! Our winners…so far… **John Mace furt RTFirefly codzilla** Keep it up, kids! Who’s #1? ---
**Author:** ![ataraxy22](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ataraxy22/32/307_2.png) [@ataraxy22](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ataraxy22)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2004, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/140 "2004-01-29T23:17:09Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > **Jonathan Chance** said: > > Wow. Can I get in on that action? I’ll mortgage the house. > > There is no way that ANY president is a 500-1 favorite against a field of contenders 9 months from an election. Take his money. Then wait for Vegas to offer odds, which will likely be more like 2-1 in Bush’s favor, and place an offsetting bet. It’s called playing the middle. You’re guaranteed a profit. Hmm. If my barely mathematical brain managed to do this thought exercise right, given these hypothetical odds (500-1 Bush (your friend) and 2-1 Bush (Las Vegas)) and you played the middle, you should bet $334 in Vegas for every dollar you bet with your friend, and you will be guaranteed at least $166 return on every dollar bet with your friend! WOW! (all amounts to the nearest dollar) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744.md?page=8)