# Election 2004 Predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 16, 2004, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744 "2004-01-16T12:50:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/161 "2004-02-04T01:43:09Z")
The Washington Post is reporting that (with 7% reporting) Clark has a VERY slight lead in Oklahoma (37 votes)(!!!). Kerry has taken Delaware and Missouri (MO being a big prize) and Edwards has South Carolina in the bag. AZ, ND and NM close in 18 minutes. They’ll make a call right away. I’d bet the world on that. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/162 "2004-02-04T01:44:50Z")
Edwards is doing great, but he can’t overtake Kerry. I’ll stick with my original predicitons for the final final, although if I were the cheating type, I’d probably say Edwards 2nd and Dean 3rd knowing what I know now. Lieberman drops out tonight (or tomorrow at the latest). ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/163 "2004-02-04T01:48:27Z")
My sources tell me ‘Fightin’ Joe’ has a big press conference laid on for tomorrow. Better luck next time, Joe! Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised in **Dean** dropped out shortly. The early number place him: AZ: Not Reported DE: 4th MO: 3rd NM: Not Reported ND: Not Reported OK: 5th (!!!) SC: 5th (!!!) I predict he’s finished. I know his campaign says he’s counting on a win in Michigan in a few days but I just don’t see how that’ll happen with these numbers. If he doesn’t place strongly or win in NM or AZ that’ll be all she wrote. ---
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/164 "2004-02-04T01:53:06Z")
According to CNN. The question is now, If Edwards wins OK and SC he knocks out Clark and Lieberman should follow leaving the other John and Dean who is basically out of the game for now. Given the new attention and momentem, do you think that he’ll be in position to beat Kerry? Will an Edwards/Kerry race be beneficial for JRE? I have to wonder. My position is that if it happens that way, it will be a very close race with possibly the superdelegates making the deciscion. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/165 "2004-02-04T02:19:06Z")
AP is projected Kerry to win AZ. No numbers yet, though. Washington Post is projecting Kerry to win in ND. With 38% of the precincts reporting Kerry has 50% of the vote. Still nothing from New Mexico. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/166 "2004-02-04T02:19:13Z")
I will be darned! Leiberman dropped out! [http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/02/03/elec04.prez.main/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/02/03/elec04.prez.main/index.html) Thought he was good for another week. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/167 "2004-02-04T02:21:33Z")
…according to CNN. Edwards may currently be up in OK, but it’s a thin lead - 600 votes last I looked - and it’s been switching back and forth between him and Clark (who was up by 450 just a few minutes ago) as new precincts report. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/168 "2004-02-04T02:31:09Z")
And Clark’s ahead by a whopping 108 votes in OK at 9:26pm, with 59% of precincts reporting. Edwards is also 18 votes behind Lieberman in the race for second in Delaware, with 92% in. ---
**Author:** ![Jello](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f05b48/32.png) [@Jello](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jello)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/169 "2004-02-04T02:53:17Z")
Edwards up by 95 in OK with 81%. If Clark stays alive, he’ll just be taking votes away from Kerry. As an Edwards man, I’m giddy. Check out the CNN exit polls when they divide the voters into issues. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/170 "2004-02-04T02:54:47Z")
What I’m really cheered about is that I keep hearing “Record turnout” for these primaries. Let’s hope that this election really gets people involved! ---
**Author:** ![Jello](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f05b48/32.png) [@Jello](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jello)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/171 "2004-02-04T02:56:16Z")
Er…that’s 81% reporting, of course. And now he’s up by 90 votes. Big indicator for future campaigning - for those in OK and SC who picked the economy as their top issue, Edwards won in bigger margins than for anything else. [http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/OK/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/OK/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/172 "2004-02-04T03:04:22Z")
Will the outcomes in Arizona and New Mexico tell us anything useful? I’m from New Mexico, so I have an interest in how it and surrounding states vote. (I would’ve voted absentee myself, but as I’ve said before, I’m registered independent and it’s not an open caucus.) The pundits on Fox were making a big deal of how there’s a large Hispanic population and are more conservative overall–which I’ll agree with depending on the the area we’re talking about. Will this give us any insight into, say, Utah, Colorado, California, and Texas, all Western states and more conservative (except, of course, California) than, say, the Northeast? For that matter, why do they keep bringing up Richardson as a possible VP selection? I can see why people might think it, and while I have nothing against Richardson (I did vote against him for Governor as I like gridlock in our banana republic), I’m not sure he’d be a better choice than say the loser of the Kerry/Edwards race (if it goes to two men in another week or two). I’m just not used to thinking of the New Mexico delegation or the state officals being incredibly important in Washington. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/173 "2004-02-04T03:07:12Z")
Oh, I should add that it looks like Kerry has Arizona. No word yet on New Mexico, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes to Kerry as well. Wasn’t that the polling over the weekend? ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/174 "2004-02-04T03:12:37Z")
Delaware is in! updated: 10:09 p.m., February 3 Kerry 16,729 50% 14 Lieberman 3,683 11% 0 Edwards 3,657 11% 0 Dean 3,439 10% 0 Clark 3,145 10% 0 Sharpton 1,885 6% 1 Kucinich 343 1% 0 ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/175 "2004-02-04T03:13:31Z")
Edwards moving up to second in Delaware and taking OK sure would help in a little bet I got going. 🙂 at 10:05 with 88% reporting: Clark up by 760 in OK over Edwards. but oops, seems at 100% Edwards loses second place to Lieberman by 26 votes(that could still probably have wiggle left) ---
**Author:** ![Chance\_the\_Gardener](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/eada6e/32.png) [@Chance\_the\_Gardener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chance_the_Gardener)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/176 "2004-02-04T03:36:09Z")
> [@asterion](#): > > Will the outcomes in Arizona and New Mexico tell us anything useful? I’m from New Mexico, so I have an interest in how it and surrounding states vote. (I would’ve voted absentee myself, but as I’ve said before, I’m registered independent and it’s not an open caucus.) The pundits on Fox were making a big deal of how there’s a large Hispanic population and are more conservative overall–which I’ll agree with depending on the the area we’re talking about. Will this give us any insight into, say, Utah, Colorado, California, and Texas, all Western states and more conservative (except, of course, California) than, say, the Northeast? Well, the outcomes in Arizona and New Mexico will tell us something useful for Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. Fox is full of it—the West isn’t so utterly conservative. Many of the Rocky Mountain states have long been conservative, but that trend has been changing in some of them. The four states I mentioned are borderline states, and have been trending more Democratic in recent years. Utah, Idaho, Wyoming and Montana are solidly Republican, and yeah, you can’t expect those to change any time soon. In general, the Western states are more conservative than the Northeast, yes, but they’re less conservative than, say, the Deep South. I would say that Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada are in play for the general election, even though all of them but New Mexico went for Bush in 2000, and Gore took New Mexico by only about 500 votes. A strong Democrat would play convincingly in the Southwest. (And I’m not including the West Coast states. Those are fairly reliable Democratic territory, Alaska excepted.) > [@asterion](#): > > For that matter, why do they keep bringing up Richardson as a possible VP selection? I can see why people might think it, and while I have nothing against Richardson (I did vote against him for Governor as I like gridlock in our banana republic), I’m not sure he’d be a better choice than say the loser of the Kerry/Edwards race (if it goes to two men in another week or two). I’m just not used to thinking of the New Mexico delegation or the state officals being incredibly important in Washington. Richardson has foreign policy experience, and he’s Hispanic. Those are two recommendations, particularly if the nominee is Edwards, since Edwards lacks foreign policy experience. I like Richardson, myself, although I’ve never even been to your fine state (though I’ve long been dying to see it.) And as to important New Mexicans in Washington: Pete Dominici has long been influential, though I don’t like him much. Jeff Bingaman is still in his first term, but I’m betting he’s got a bright future in politics. ---
**Author:** ![telechus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9f8e36/32.png) [@telechus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/telechus)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/177 "2004-02-04T04:02:35Z")
> [@Jonathan Chance](#): > > Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised in **Dean** dropped out shortly. Dean will most likely stay until March 02. He has money, around $6 million since Iowa. The strategy that Dean has laid is to fight for delegates and outlast the other candidates. It’s a long shot, but it could happen. ---
**Author:** ![Chance\_the\_Gardener](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/eada6e/32.png) [@Chance\_the\_Gardener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chance_the_Gardener)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/178 "2004-02-04T04:08:11Z")
> [@RockyRaccoon](#): > > It would be interesting to know the _second_ choices of those who voted for Clark, Dean, Sharpton and Lieberman. In other words, would their votes have gone to Edwards or Kerry had their candidates not been in the race. It probably would make a difference in “what the numbers say” in a couple of the close states. If you’re curious, my first choice was Howard Dean. Second for me is John Kerry, and John Edwards is my third. I’d be pleased with either of them. We’re voting here in New York on March 2. If Dean doesn’t call it quits after Wisconsin, I might cast my vote for him. If not, I’ll vote for Kerry. To me, there is no bad outcome in this. We’re coming for you, Junior. November 2, you’re Texas toast. ---
**Author:** ![Menocchio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de053/32.png) [@Menocchio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Menocchio)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/179 "2004-02-04T04:35:11Z")
I originally liked Dean, and still think he’s right on the issues, but now he’s coming off as alternately whiny and psychotic. Now I like Kerry on the issues, and Edwards for respectibility and charisma. I’m leaning Kerry but may turn Edwards by the time my state comes around. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2004, 7:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744/180 "2004-02-04T07:03:04Z")
> [@telechus](#): > > Dean will most likely stay until March 02. He has money, around $6 million since Iowa. The strategy that Dean has laid is to fight for delegates and outlast the other candidates. It’s a long shot, but it could happen. This is a tough call, but I think it depends on what we see in WA, MI and WI. If he doesn’t do well in any of those, he’s out. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-2004-predictions/224744.md?page=10)