# Election Day 2019. Will today's results show how things are trending for next year? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 5, 2019, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030 "2019-11-05T15:08:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/1 "2019-11-05T15:08:14Z")
Today is Election Day for the off year races. There are three states that I will be watching tonight. The big show is in Virginia, where all the seats in both their lower and upper chambers are up for election. There are also gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi. In Virginia it seems the Democrats are slightly favored to win both houses, which would be important for them given that the post census redistricting will be done by the legislators that are elected today. This may also be a bellwether for how the country is leaning going into next year’s election. There are also gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi, which are likely to go Republican, though possibly by a lower margin than expected for deep red states. Are their any of you all in these states? What are your guesses about the results and opinions on the races? Will the results indicate how the country is leaning heading into next year’s election? My prediction is that the Democrats will sweep both chambers in Virginia and Republicans will win in Kentucky and Mississippi. ---
**Author:** ![Superdude](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/superdude/32/13450_2.png) [@Superdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superdude)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/2 "2019-11-05T15:36:34Z")
I live in Kentucky. Just outside of Louisville. I’ve already been out and voted. It’s been a highly contested gubernatorial race, but Matt Bevin is pretty unpopular among the people that I’ve talked to. He pissed off the teachers during his term with comments regarding their strike such as > [@](#): > > “One thing you almost didn’t hear anything about while we had people pretending to be sick when they weren’t sick and leaving kids unattended to or in situations that they should not have been in — a little girl was shot, 7 years old, by another kid,” And > [@](#): > > “I guarantee you somewhere in Kentucky today, a child was sexually assaulted that was left at home because there was nobody there to watch them. I guarantee you somewhere today, a child was physically harmed or ingested poison because they were left alone because a single parent didn’t have any money to take care of them.” I’m friends with several teachers, and these comments didn’t help him any. I’m hoping for a landslide defeat of all Republicans, but I’m happy to start from here. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/3 "2019-11-05T15:39:14Z")
Elections today will carry some information about the country as a whole, but not very much. Very few people turn out for off-year elections (when the President isn’t on the ballot), and even fewer for odd-year elections (when no national offices at all are on the ballot), so you’re looking at a very small and probably not representative slice of the population. And local issues are often very different from national ones. Then add in that only small portions of the country (again, not representatively chosen) will have any relevant races at all (for instance, in the few elections I’ll be voting in today, every single candidate identifies as a Democrat). And even if you did have representative data for the country as a whole for today, a lot can change in a year. ---
**Author:** ![Balance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ccd318/32.png) [@Balance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balance)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/4 "2019-11-05T16:49:13Z")
The Virginia races might show us something, but, as **Chronos** suggests, not much. The gubernatorial races are likely to be even more localized. As for the rest…well, elections like the one I’m voting in today aren’t going to tell us anything. There are no offices on my ballot, just a slate of 10 constitutional amendments (because the Texas constitution is insane), and only one of the amendments has support polarized by party. (It’s pointless grandstanding by Republicans, amending the constitution to block something no one has any intention of doing.) ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2019, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/5 "2019-11-05T19:26:19Z")
I am in MS. Keep your eye on the lieutenant governor position as well as the governorship (which, due to a weird quirk of Mississippi law that gives us the state-level equivalent of an electoral college, is probably out of reach for a Democrat unless a court rules that the law is unconstitutional). The Democratic candidate for Lt. Gov is very strong and (based on my highly anecdotal experience working his tailgate tent at the Mississippi State football games), drawing an unusual level of support among traditionally Republican constituencies. Definite possibility for an upset there. ---
**Author:** ![Mike\_Mabes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mike_mabes/32/1782_2.png) [@Mike\_Mabes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mike_Mabes)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/6 "2019-11-06T00:41:34Z")
I agree these elections won’t tell us a whole lot, but what if there is an unusually high turnout of Republican voters in Kentucky to support an unpopular Governor because he is aligned with Trump? If it happens there would it not be an indication of what might happen in other states in the Presidential election? I’m not sure the Democratic voter turnout would tell us much. If it is high, it could be simply because Democrats see a rare chance to win in Kentucky, especially against a Trump supporter. If Democratic turnout is low, that would worry me a bit. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/7 "2019-11-06T01:01:15Z")
Currently for Ky Gov 49.4 to 48.1 “too close to call” for the Democrat with going on 70% reporting. (As I typed this it got even closer.) > **[Kentucky Gubernatorial Results 2019 | Live Election Map](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2019-general-elections/kentucky-results?icid=election_marquee)** > > Find the results, maps, live projections and polls from the Kentucky elections on November 5th, 2019 where Democrats vote for their gubernatorial candidates. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/8 "2019-11-06T01:14:28Z")
75% reporting: 49.8 to 48.2 for the Democrat. OK, I’ll stop for a while. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/9 "2019-11-06T01:24:40Z")
An “unusually high turnout”, in an odd-numbered year, would still mean a turnout far lower than an “unusually low turnout” in a presidential year. The kinds of folks who vote in odd-numbered years are all folks who are absolutely guaranteed to vote in the presidential years, no matter what. I mean, if the turnout this year among some demographic were actually higher than a typical presidential year, _that_ would tell us a lot, but that’s not going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/10 "2019-11-06T01:28:17Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Then add in that only small portions of the country (again, not representatively chosen) will have any relevant races at all (for instance, in the few elections I’ll be voting in today, every single candidate identifies as a Democrat). And even if you did have representative data for the country as a whole for today, a lot can change in a year. In the part of Arlington County, VA where I am posted now, of 9 offices being voted on (8 D, 1 I) there are no Republicans challenging and 6 of the people including the Independent are running unopposed. Makes one wonder why they even bother to make some of those posts elective… or suspicious that they put them in this freak election schedule precisely so nobody will bother showing up and you can keep being reelected by your close friends and relatives. The rest of Virginia however does have the more “exciting” outlook about finally bluing the legislature; it should be interesting to see which side is motivated enough (or if population shifts finally tilted the scales) to make it decisive and prevent a repeat of the last time when they ended up drawing lots to break a tie (which stayed Republican). ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/11 "2019-11-06T01:34:05Z")
Folks starting to call Kentucky for the Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/12 "2019-11-06T01:43:31Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > In the part of Arlington County, VA where I am posted now Howdy, neighbor! ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/13 "2019-11-06T01:54:14Z")
For what it’s worth, I would like to go back to a simpler time when I don’t know or care who the governor of Kentucky is. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/14 "2019-11-06T01:55:15Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Folks starting to call Kentucky for the Democrats. Four rural counties in areas that are heavily GOP without any votes reported yet makes me think that is a bit premature considering Bevin trails by less than 10,000 votes at the moment. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/15 "2019-11-06T02:04:54Z")
Are there 10,000 votes total out there? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/16 "2019-11-06T02:08:46Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > An “unusually high turnout”, in an odd-numbered year, would still mean a turnout far lower than an “unusually low turnout” in a presidential year. The kinds of folks who vote in odd-numbered years are all folks who are absolutely guaranteed to vote in the presidential years, no matter what. > > I mean, if the turnout this year among some demographic were actually higher than a typical presidential year, _that_ would tell us a lot, but that’s not going to happen. But I think a higher than usual turnout still means something. I think it’s a sign that people are engaged in politics and want to send a message to elected officials (even those who are not running for this year) to remind them that they vote. I think there are elected officials who count on voter apathy to let them get away with things. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/17 "2019-11-06T02:18:11Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Are there 10,000 votes total out there? Probably not but I consider Bevin to be such a slimebag it wouldn’t surprise me if he or the state GOP managed to “find” them. Without doubt if Bevin loses, as it looks more likely by the minute, this will be challenged in court and a recount will be done. MSNBC just called Beshear the “apparent winner” while I was typing this. They also just related this interesting info - in 2015 turnout for the governer’s race was around 900,000. This year looks to be close to 1,400,000 turnout. 2016 in the Presidential race the turnout was 1,900,000. ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/18 "2019-11-06T02:27:09Z")
It’s worth pointing out that the down-ticket races in Kentucky went poorly. Daniel Cameron, a Mitch McConnell disciple with almost no legal experience, is the new Attorney General (replacing Andy Beshear, the new Governor). The upside of that one is that as an unqualified reactionary in swaddling clothes, had he lost the election he almost certainly would have been appointed to the Federal bench by Trump. Secretary of State flipped to a Democrat as well. The KY Dems had to put about everything they had into beating Bevin, and it showed. Overall, it’s hard to call it a great night for Democrats, so much as it was a terrible night for Matt Bevin. But it’s still a win worth celebrating, because Bevin is an assclown. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/19 "2019-11-06T02:52:12Z")
Looks like Virginia, despite Trump’s tweeting about gloom and disaster if the Dem win, will have Democratic majorities in both their House and Senate, reversing Republican majorities. Can hardly wait to see what Our Pres. has to say about that ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2019, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030/20 "2019-11-06T03:04:37Z")
I suspect he will be curiously silent about it. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-2019-will-todays-results-show-how-things-are-trending-for-next-year/843030.md?page=2)