# Election Day \[Week\]\[Month\[s\]\] \[Year\] 2020 follow-along thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 3, 2020, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618 "2020-11-03T05:36:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 52
**Author:** ![Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/half_man_half_wit/32/21766_2.png) [@Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Half_Man_Half_Wit)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 6:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1021 "2020-11-04T06:59:52Z")
I’m on the verge of an anxiety attack here; not really the news I hoped to wake up to. Still, it seems as if most commentators still see Biden comfortably in the lead—but I confess I’m having trouble understanding that. The AP results at Google right now don’t seem too encouraging; the current tally is Biden 224, Trump 213, with Trump leading in many of the contested states. Is there an expectation that votes yet to be counted will overwhelmingly favor Biden? Also, it seems that no matter how this goes, the predictions severely underestimated Trump. Over at the [NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html), Trump looks like he’s got all of the states where a narrow win for him was expected in the bag, has won or is favored in all tossup states, and looks a serious contender for three of the states Biden was expected to win narrowly. I guess the next states to be called seem to be North Carolina and Georgia. Biden seems to be catching up in Georgia, but to me, it looks like little more than a coin toss. Anybody have some grounds for optimism to share with this anxious German watching from the sidelines? ---
**Author:** ![Mike\_Mabes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mike_mabes/32/1782_2.png) [@Mike\_Mabes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mike_Mabes)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1022 "2020-11-04T07:04:20Z")
Yes. FOX just gave Arizona to Biden. Biden just needs to win Wisconsin and Michigan. Pennysylvania won’t matter ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1023 "2020-11-04T07:05:27Z")
I don’t know if I’m up to date in the thread but— Trump is about to speak. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1024 "2020-11-04T07:06:06Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > In AZ, Biden leads by 156K with around 600K left to be counted. Unfortunately, 500K of those are from counties Trump won in 2016. Hopefully those counties swung for Biden this time That’s actually not terrible, although obviously way too close for comfort. If the 100,000 you don’t account for break at exactly 50/50, Trump would need almost 65% of all of those 500,000 to overtake. Do you know if those counties voted for Trump that heavily in 2016? ---
**Author:** ![Mike\_Mabes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mike_mabes/32/1782_2.png) [@Mike\_Mabes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mike_Mabes)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1025 "2020-11-04T07:07:27Z")
> [@Mike\_Mabes](#): > > FOX just gave Arizona to Biden. Biden just needs to win Wisconsin and Michigan. Pennysylvania won’t matter If Biden really has won AZ ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1026 "2020-11-04T07:11:13Z")
If I plug the current situation, with AZ and Nebraska to Biden, into Nate Silver’s doohickey, with unknowns on the unknowns, it gives Biden a 97% chance currently. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1027 "2020-11-04T07:11:14Z")
Nevada is very close. Biden doesn’t win without it if he only takes WI and MI. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1028 "2020-11-04T07:11:46Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > If I plug the current situation, with AZ and Nebraska to Biden, into Nate Silver’s doohickey, with unknowns on the unknowns, it gives Biden a 97% chance currently. I don’t think that thing works at all. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1029 "2020-11-04T07:15:09Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > ust posted to 538: “Based on a drop of 13,121 mail ballots in Erie County, PA showing Biden winning them 5:1, it looks like he will win back this swing county that Trump carried. There are abut 37k mail ballots still to be counted in coming days. Dems believe Biden wins them 3 or 4 to 1.” That is what, 11000 votes? It’s a rounding error. Trump is winning by 700,000 votes. Pennsylvania is lost. ---
**Author:** ![psychobunny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/54ee81/32.png) [@psychobunny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/psychobunny)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1030 "2020-11-04T07:15:46Z")
Why is nobody talking about Wisconsin? I don’t see how Biden can win Wisconsin. He’s way behind Clinton’s numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1031 "2020-11-04T07:15:56Z")
So the Senate is a lost cause for this year? I’ve seen indirect statements to this effect, but nothing direct with numbers yet. Anyway, a moral victory would’ve been nice, but I’d prefer an actual victory to defeat any day. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1032 "2020-11-04T07:17:39Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > I keep wondering if there’s been any voting machine hacking, given that this was a confirmed issue in several states the last time around. Don’t suppose we’ll ever know. You and I think the same. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1033 "2020-11-04T07:18:20Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > If I plug the current situation, with AZ and Nebraska to Biden, into Nate Silver’s doohickey, with unknowns on the unknowns, it gives Biden a 97% chance currently. Biden is not projected to win Nebraska, just one NE congressional district for 1 EV. Is that how you plugged it in? ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1034 "2020-11-04T07:18:22Z")
> [@psychobunny](#): > > Why is nobody talking about Wisconsin? I don’t see how Biden can win Wisconsin. He’s way behind Clinton’s numbers. The question with all of these states is whether in-person voting was counted and reported before mail-in or early voting, or the other way around. (Also unclear to me whether the “percent reporting” means “percent of possible votes” or “percent of counties” or “percent of in-person counties” or what. But none of the people who know more than we do seem to be making a big deal about it… On 538 they just pointed out that Biden is winning MN by 8%, polling said 9%. So that’s a very good sign that polling in the upper midwest is accurate). ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1035 "2020-11-04T07:20:00Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > That is what, 11000 votes? It’s a rounding error. Trump is winning by 700,000 votes. Pennsylvania is lost I don’t know what to tell you, but Nathaniel Rakich on 538 said this along with that quote, about an hour ago: “We don’t have a projection for these states yet, but at this point, I’d rather be Biden in Pennsylvania and, as Geoffrey said earlier, Wisconsin.” So I’m going to be optimistic until I’m not. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1036 "2020-11-04T07:20:35Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > At that rate, he’d wind up winning by about 1 percent. I don’t see Biden pulling this off unless the numbers in and around Atlanta have more votes remaining that estimated. Remember, a few votes will still trickle in from rural areas. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1037 "2020-11-04T07:21:29Z")
And this just now from Nate Silver: " One thing to keep in mind about Pennsylvania is that the mail votes were VERY blue there — Democrats [led 66 percent to 23 percent on them by party registration](https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html). So although Trump’s lead is larger there than in Wisconsin or Michigan, Biden should also get a stronger blue shift there." ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1038 "2020-11-04T07:21:55Z")
Trump’s on TV. Live ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1039 "2020-11-04T07:24:26Z")
Pence is also there. Trump is saying that they were ready to celebrate a win. ---
**Author:** ![Kron](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kron/32/12444_2.png) [@Kron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kron)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1040 "2020-11-04T07:25:19Z")
Y’all have stronger stomachs than I. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618.md?page=51) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618.md?page=53)