# Election Day \[Week\]\[Month\[s\]\] \[Year\] 2020 follow-along thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 3, 2020, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618 "2020-11-03T05:36:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 85
**Author:** ![drm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e57/32.png) [@drm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drm)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1682 "2020-11-04T19:31:34Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > > [@MikeF](#): > > > > So, now my co-worker is saying there were more ballots cast in Wisconsin than there are registered voters. > > This is all over the place - it’s bullshit. They’re using a number from registered voters in the primary. 400,000 more voters registered since then, AND Wisconsin is a day-of-election registration state. I think we’ve seen that it doesn’t matter that it is bullshit. It will get repeated enough by those whom that lie benefits that it will eventually be the truth. For the next 2.5 months, should Biden win, there is going to be so much of this type of shit repeated that we will have four years of Fox News, Breitbart et al spouting about how the left stole the election. The only thing Ive learned last night and over the last generation is that the United States might be irreparably broken snd Im more than a bit worried that Canada is headed down a similar path. Bah, enough of my bullcrap. My apologies. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1683 "2020-11-04T19:32:22Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > Really need to see an update on Nevada. Nevada has announced they will not release new totals until tomorrow morning. I believe 9am local time. But there may be one more update from Washoe County before then - it’s not clear. If that does happen it will give us a picture of the type of ballots outstanding at least, since it’s currently Biden+4 (and was only D+1.2 last cycle). Nevada is sort of the mirror of PA in that the counties fully reported do in fact look redder than in 2016. And Clark County (Vegas) is about 2 points under where Clinton was. Is that due to the order of counting or a true shift in the voting pattern? ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1684 "2020-11-04T19:34:10Z")
So here’s my question: media are reporting that Trump and Republicans are gearing up to launch multiple lawsuits in states where Trump has or looks like he will narrowly lose. Are the Democrats ramping up to challenge results in states Biden narrowly lost or is trailing like NC, GA and PA? Are they just going to play defense? ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1685 "2020-11-04T19:34:10Z")
Thank you, I missed that. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1686 "2020-11-04T19:34:30Z")
> [@kayaker](#): > > On the bright side…it looks like the War On Drugs is over. Not as long as Bill Barr, or someone like him is AG. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1687 "2020-11-04T19:37:32Z")
Crowder (a known liar) says he has definitive proof of election fraud. I bet 500 quatloos that the evidence is his imagination. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1688 "2020-11-04T19:38:52Z")
> [@TheCuse](#): > > Here’s one article from USA Today: > [Polls showed Biden over Trump. There's still no winner. Here's why](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/polls-biden-had-lead-over-trump-election-results-unclear-wednesday/6158248002/) Some good info in there about Florida, but how were they also so wrong in TX, OH, IA, etc? > [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > It seems like they are saying the polling errors seem to be 3% and that is normal polling error so the polls weren’t wrong. But how is it that all that margin of error favored Trump? (Not to mention that much of it is greater than 3%.) ---
**Author:** ![TheCuse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thecuse/32/2854_2.png) [@TheCuse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheCuse)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1689 "2020-11-04T19:40:05Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > Some good info in there about Florida, but how were they also so wrong in TX, OH, IA, etc? I don’t know. I’m sure the media and the pollsters are trying to come up with some excuse. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1690 "2020-11-04T19:41:30Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > > [@TroutMan](#): > > > > Yup, that’s where I’m getting my numbers. The fear is that the estimate of 1.4 million remaining ballots is not accurate. For example, if it’s only 1.2M, then he needs to capture 70% of them. If it’s 1M, he needs 73-74%. Doable, but by no means a sure thing. > > My optimism in PA is centered on the counties with complete counts. If you scroll down the list [here](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania.html) you see that Trump is at or under 2016 margins in all of them. The suburban counties that are complete (Dauphin, Northampton) show pretty big swings to Biden. It’s only in the counties that haven’t completed their tabulations where you see big Trump margins. The consistency of that makes me think that it’s an artifact of the order votes are counted, not some swing in Trump’s favor. > > Look at something like Monroe county. It currently is Trump+25 with 59% reporting. It was basically even in 2016. Does that seem right to you? Or is it more likely that they just haven’t tabulated and submitted their early votes yet? On the county website it shows ~47,000 votes counted with all precincts reporting. In 2016 they had ~70k votes there. > > I also read the tea leaves from the Trump camp as well. They say “we will win Arizona”. But they say “we will win _legally cast ballots_” in PA. Yeah that is broadly the method I use to look at state counts. It becomes more complicated because of the mail-in vote issue but if you focus on counties that are say 98% or more done that should not be a problem. So looking at the 31 counties that are 98% or more done, and comparing Trump’s margin to his 2016 margin and weighting for the number of votes I think what you get is that Biden is running around 2.3% ahead of Hillary. Since she lost by less than a point, he may be winning by 1.5 points or so. Of course all this is speculative and assumes that these counties are approximately representative of the state. Still it’s a data point. ---
**Author:** ![Kearsen1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Kearsen1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kearsen1)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1691 "2020-11-04T19:41:55Z")
If the margin was 3%, it could have shifted as much as 6% to Trump. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1692 "2020-11-04T19:42:29Z")
The Trump campaign has announced that they will be asking for a recount in Wisconsin. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1693 "2020-11-04T19:43:03Z")
Anybody got a link to an electoral map whose states are size-adjusted for population/electoral votes? ---
**Author:** ![drm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e57/32.png) [@drm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drm)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1694 "2020-11-04T19:43:35Z")
> [@](#): > > But how is it that all that margin of error favored Trump? (Not to mention that much of it is greater than 3%.) Thank you! It has been a while, but usually error should be random, not all in one direction. It has been two elections of all the error going one way. This seems like bad polling. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1695 "2020-11-04T19:44:15Z")
> [@garygnu](#): > > Anybody got a link to an electoral map whose states are size-adjusted for population/electoral votes? > **[Election Results: Electoral College, Congressional and State Races](https://www.newsnationnow.com/2020-election-results/)** > > About NewsNation’s Election Results NewsNation’s television broadcast and digital properties will rely on The Associated Press for all vote counting and race calls. NewsNation chose to … You may have to hit the “Change Map” button in the lower right. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1696 "2020-11-04T19:44:33Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > So here’s my question: media are reporting that Trump and Republicans are gearing up to launch multiple lawsuits in states where Trump has or looks like he will narrowly lose. Are the Democrats ramping up to challenge results in states Biden narrowly lost or is trailing like NC, GA and PA? Are they just going to play defense? There is little utility in doing so. Trump has been a) the president and b) ramping up to make these challenges for the past year. They’re not going to be legitimately persuasive arguments; they’re political arguments. The exception, of course, is that if there’s some genuine ratfuckery going on, that can and should be challenged. But that isn’t what this strategy is about. They’re going to say “wah wah, we should be allowed to do stuff in the states we’re losing! Stop the count!” It doesn’t matter what the stuff is, or what the argument is. They just want to fuck with the vote counts, and they’re hoping that a friendly court will accept one or some of those arguments and let them slash ballots off the rolls in sufficient quantity. If the Democrats try to do that, the odds of a court saying “that is false and in incredibly bad faith… but I’ll allow it!” are relatively quite low, compared to Trump getting away with it. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1697 "2020-11-04T19:44:49Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > To emphasize my PA point above, a batch of votes was just released from Indiana County. Trump is winning Indiana County by 38 percentage points. And, yet, that batch of votes actually _reduced_ his lead in the state by a few thousand votes. > > Unless I did my math wrong or forgot the previous margin, which is entirely possible. > > I’m not saying it will be enough to win, but it’s clear the rest of the vote will be very pro-Biden. That’s quite plausible. Biden voters, even in red precincts, are more likely to take covid seriously and vote by mail. Pennsylvania could go our way, I’d definitely like the insurance that would give. 270-268 would be an invitation to elector theft. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1698 "2020-11-04T19:46:04Z")
I’ve been following along with the conservative subreddit (I’m always interested in other points of view). While most of it is the typical rabid madness you might expect, the more thoughtful posts seems to indicate that they are as convinced that the Democrats have stolen this election, as I’m sure the Democrats would be if Trump had won (or wins since it isn’t over yet). ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1699 "2020-11-04T19:48:42Z")
Polls are useless in close races. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1700 "2020-11-04T19:51:24Z")
And to fully belabor the PA data, I dug a bit more into Monroe County (since it is way down in what it has reported). Apparently, their procedure is to count early votes today and tomorrow from 10a-5p and only once it is all complete to add it to the machine count from election day and post an update. So unless they get it all done today (or change their procedure to allow a partial release), we probably won’t get those votes until tomorrow. I don’t know if the Governor or SoS or anybody can lean on them to speed it up or if it’s just the way things go there. [http://www.monroecountypa.gov/Dept/Voter/Lists/ElecAnnoucements/DispForm.aspx?ID=41&Source=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.monroecountypa.gov%2FDept%2FVoter%2FPages%2FCurrentElectionInfo.aspx&ContentTypeId=0x010400B2F7B2DC96734E43BC2AD51A696CD135](http://www.monroecountypa.gov/Dept/Voter/Lists/ElecAnnoucements/DispForm.aspx?ID=41&Source=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Emonroecountypa%2Egov%2FDept%2FVoter%2FPages%2FCurrentElectionInfo%2Easpx&ContentTypeId=0x010400B2F7B2DC96734E43BC2AD51A696CD135) ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1701 "2020-11-04T19:53:30Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Define “hugely left”. 0.12 on a scale of (il)liberalism ranked from 0 (100% liberal) to 10 (0% liberal). By that scale, depending on how the distribution is viewed, 88% of European political parties are to the right of the Democratic Party. That indicates the Democratic party is hugely left, if you trust your graph. Also, do you really believe that the 2018 Democratic Party is only slightly more liberal than 1982 Reagan Republicans? That admittedly hurts my theory that Warren and Ocasio-Cortez are far-left politicians, but supports my theory that the US is centre-right. That means that the US Republican Party was hugely liberal in 1982 by modern standards, but has moved away from liberalism. I know you agree with the “moved away” bit, but do you really believe that the 2018 Republican Party is 4 1/2 times more conservative than the Democratic Party? Should this board start praising Reagan as centre-left moderate? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618.md?page=84) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618.md?page=86)