# Election Day \[Week\]\[Month\[s\]\] \[Year\] 2020 follow-along thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 3, 2020, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618 "2020-11-03T05:36:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 91
**Author:** ![whitetho](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whitetho/32/1059_2.png) [@whitetho](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/whitetho)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1802 "2020-11-04T21:35:36Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > Assuming Biden makes it to 270, as seems to be trending, have there been any other Presidential elections where the winner got exactly the number of EC votes needed? I’m not recalling any. In 1876 it was Hayes 185, Tilden 184, in a long drawn out post-election-day battle that included competing slates of electors for some states: > **[1876 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1876_United_States_presidential_election)** > > Ulysses S. Grant > Republican > Rutherford B. Hayes > Republican via Electoral Commission > The 1876 United States presidential election was the 23rd quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 7, 1876. Incumbent Republican president Ulysses S. Grant declined to run for a third term, so the party chose Rutherford B. Hayes, the governor of Ohio, as its nominee. The Democratic Party nominated New York governor Samuel J. Tilden as their nominee. It was one of the most contentious presi... ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1803 "2020-11-04T21:36:34Z")
A bunch of trump heads are outside the TCF Center in Detroit, where votes are still being counted, chanting “STOP THE COUNT”. Don’t know why they think stopping the vote count would be a good thing for trump at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1804 "2020-11-04T21:36:55Z")
Nate Silver ranks the remaining states. NC is likely Trump, all others at least lean Biden. > **[Biden Is Projected To Be The President-Elect. Here’s How It All Went Down.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/)** > > Live election results and coverage of the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, and the race for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Winston\_OBoogie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.winston_oboogie/32/2945_2.png) [@Dr.Winston\_OBoogie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Winston_OBoogie)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1805 "2020-11-04T21:37:59Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > Assuming Biden makes it to 270, as seems to be trending, have there been any other Presidential elections where the winner got exactly the number of EC votes needed? I’m not recalling any. Per [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_Electoral_College_margin), Rutherford Hayes got 185 out of 369, or EXACTLY the number needed in 1876. There have been two elections where the House determined the winner. The first was by a techicality. Prior to 1800, the person with the most votes was President; second most votes became Vice President. With the 1800 election, each candidate had a Vice Presidential candidate. Well, it came to the Electoral College, and officially Jefferson and Burr had the same number of votes, so the House had to do the bloody obvious and say “Jefferson is President”. The other one was the ONLY time there was not a clear winner through the electoral college. In 1824, there were 4 viable candidates (no two-party system back then!). John Quincy Adams actually was second place in the Electoral College vote - out of 261 votes, he got 86 while Andrew Jackson got 99. However, through the machinations of the House, they voted Adams in. Jackson got revenge (and two terms of his own) in 28 and 32. No, I didn’t know all of this before. I knew about Jefferson, and I knew the basics behind Adams; got the specifics from Wikipedia. Did not know about Hayes. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1806 "2020-11-04T21:41:06Z")
“I would transition away from the oil industry, yes,” Biden said in the debate’s final minutes, during a section about climate change. “The oil industry pollutes, significantly. It has to be replaced by renewable energy over time.” > **['It has to be replaced': Trump seizes on Biden's oil industry comments. But...](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/it-has-be-replaced-trump-seizes-biden-s-oil-industry-n1244561)** > > The former VP said at the final presidential debate that he would "transition" the economy away from fossil fuel. This was a stupid unforced error. He could have just gave a noncommittal response to the question, but instead he stepped on his own dick. And let me say again: I am not talking about long-term environmental and economic policy here. I’m talking about the strategy for Democrats to solidify the blue wall. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1807 "2020-11-04T21:41:33Z")
> [@urbanredneck2](#): > > I think democrats need to look at why every city run by democrats is full of homeless and crime. This happens in cities. Cities all over the world, run by people of all stripes. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1809 "2020-11-04T21:44:31Z")
And I think what you might be missing is that to a lot of folks concerned about climate change, there IS no “long term.” We need to take immediate action, and I think some of the pushback against you is an implication that the issue is being put off or that the public would get the message that it’s not a big deal generally. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1810 "2020-11-04T21:44:47Z")
> [@whitetho](#): > > In 1876 it was Hayes 185, Tilden 184, in a long drawn out post-election-day battle that included competing slates of electors for some states: Ah. Thanks, I missed that one, 'cause I didn’t have a TV at the time. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1811 "2020-11-04T21:45:52Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > And I think what you might be missing is that to a lot of folks concerned about climate change, there IS no “long term.” We need to take immediate action, and I think some of the pushback against you is an implication that the issue is being put off or that the public would get the message that it’s not a big deal generally. So are these people going to stay home in an election, or vote for the Republican, because they feel that the Democratic candidate is not campaigning hard enough on it? I don’t think so. This is not a “mobilizing voters” issue. It’s an “avoid alienating potential voters” issue. ---
**Author:** ![Kron](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kron/32/12444_2.png) [@Kron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kron)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1812 "2020-11-04T21:46:04Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > > [@urbanredneck2](#): > > > > I think democrats need to look at why every city run by democrats is full of homeless and crime. > > This happens in cities. Cities all over the world, run by people of all stripes. There are homeless people in my “city” in Wyoming. I dare @urbanredneck2 to come call any random citizen or local government official **liberal** or a **Democrat**. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1813 "2020-11-04T21:47:25Z")
> [@Lamoral](#): > > This was a stupid unforced error. He could have just gave a noncommittal response to the question, but instead he stepped on his own dick. And the Trump supporters listening to this seem to think if Biden becomes president there will be no gasoline the day after he takes office. A reasonable person understands that this means we need to work towards alternatives to oil. If they really want to look in to it they will realize it will take a few decades…which is why we start now. Even IF Biden got his way 100% they’d still have their trucks and boats and whatnot and honestly would probably never notice anything changing…certainly not in a way they would be upset about even if they did notice. Instead they tune into FOX News and hear on repeat how Biden is coming for their truck. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1814 "2020-11-04T21:47:39Z")
I’m interested in hearing about all the Republican run cities that are free of homelessness and crime. Surely that must be a long list. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1815 "2020-11-04T21:47:55Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Nate Silver ranks the remaining states. NC is likely Trump, all others at least lean Biden. I agree with him on everything except for maybe Georgia. Based on his argument, I’d agree, but there seems to be disagreement between the GA SoS and everyone else as far as what is remaining. The GA SoS says that the only thing outstanding is about 3% of Fulton. While that would be very blue, it wouldn’t be enough votes to overcome the deficit. So, do we trust the SoS (to be fair, the ones in Georgia have all recently been shady as shit) or other sources? ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1816 "2020-11-04T21:48:23Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > This happens in cities. Cities all over the world, run by people of all stripes. I don’t know whether people who promulgate this absurd theory are aware of how cause-and-effect can go in different directions. Maybe places with high poverty and crime trust Democrats more than Republicans to fix these problems. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1817 "2020-11-04T21:49:41Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Nate Silver ranks the remaining states. NC is likely Trump, all others at least lean Biden. Worth quoting at length, I think: "But here’s where the presidential race stands from _most_ likely Trump win to _least_ likely Trump win: **North Carolina.** Trump leads by 1.4 points or about 77,000 votes, but mail ballots can arrive after Election Day in North Carolina, so perhaps 5 percent of the vote is still outstanding. The mail vote should be pretty blue in North Carolina, but is it enough to flip the state? Probably not, according to [The Upshot’s needle](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/upshot/new-york-times-needle-election.html), which gave Biden about a 15 percent chance in North Carolina before it was frozen. I’d call this one _Likely Trump_ , although 15 percent chances aren’t zero, obviously! **Georgia.** Trump [leads by 78,000](https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1324085207214030848?s=20) votes without around 200,000 votes outstanding (there’s some uncertainty over the exact number). That seems like a tall order for Biden, but the remaining vote is [expected to be _very_ blue](https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324084507549552648?s=20): mail votes from blue counties plus some Election Day votes from predominantly Black precincts in blue counties. The Upshot’s needle actually had Biden slightly favored to pull it off as of last night. We’ll know more soon. Let’s say _Tossup_ but you could force me into _Lean Biden_ if you told me I had to make a pick. **Pennsylvania.** [As expected](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-north-carolina-president.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage), far more uncounted votes here than elsewhere, mostly mail votes that should be _quite_ Democratic-leaning, though. There are too many outstanding ballots for us to be in the endgame where we can game out exact scenarios, but in counties that have completed reporting, Biden [looks to be hitting the targets he needs](https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324069252555485189?s=20). Even with the Trump campaign filing a number of lawsuits, the margin is [tightening quickly enough](https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324101078963507200?s=20) that I think this belongs in _Lean Biden_ . **Arizona.** We may need to do a longer post on Arizona later. What’s [left to count](https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/least-400-k-ballots-left-count-arizona-republic-estimates-and-number-certainly-higher/6157997002/) is mostly mail votes that were returned late in the process — on Monday or Tuesday. There’s some ambiguity about how many ballots this actually is; Edison Research [seems to think around 450,000](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-arizona.html). If so, Trump would need to win those votes by 21 points to overtake Biden’s current 93,000-vote lead. They’re disrupted fairly evenly throughout the state. Wait — outstanding mail votes? Shouldn’t those be good for Biden, as in other states? Well, not necessarily, because Republicans have a fairly strong mail voting program in Arizona and — this is the key part — the mail ballots that were returned later in the process (the ones yet to be continued) were significantly redder than the ones that came in earlier on, as Democrats sent their votes in early. For instance, the party registration of the [votes that came in Monday and Tuesday](https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1324078927929843717/photo/1) were: 23 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent or other parties. That is to say, a 21-point GOP edge, which would put Trump on track to tie things up. But … here’s the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. It has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters. Biden also had a [big lead among independents in polls](https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az-fl-pa-wi/bc6b622f38350414/full.pdf). And earlier batches of mail ballots were considerably stronger for Biden than party registration alone would suggest. So probably these ballots are going to come in more for Trump than for Biden, but not as strongly as he needs. There’s also the fact that two other news organizations, the Associated Press and Fox News, have called the state for Biden. I’d assume they’ve put more work into looking into this than I have, so that shifts my priors a bit, but you never know and you will get incorrect calls occasionally. Overall, I’d say this is _Likely Biden_ but I don’t think the state should have been called yet. **Nevada.** This one’s a bit more straightforward. Biden leads by only 0.6 percent or about 7,500 votes. But what’s remaining _should_ be pretty good for him. It’s [all mail-in ballots](https://twitter.com/NVElect/status/1323939477060943877) that were either received late in the process or which are still coming in — in Nevada, mail ballots can be received by Nov. 10 provided they’re postmarked by Election Day. The mail ballots [were _quite_ blue in Nevada by party registration](https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NV.html), much more so than in Arizona, [including votes that arrived relatively late in the process](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3). _Likely Biden._ ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1818 "2020-11-04T21:49:51Z")
What strikes me is the previous discussion about how a lot of the media talk about how many ballots are in is based on projections themselves. Does the SOS have better information? If so, from where, and does the media have access to it? ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1819 "2020-11-04T21:52:41Z")
STOP THE COUNT! [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/FsLua04fnky-pmExbESuavFoJdGjkuszpn66Z7oy5ojr5hEZSrGvBg1iHdOyKFAEH7FOfXtH2azwCKA2ZlTQ0TVX5iKu-Y01BxHi2MGyoZJsehlRSAPflbONZmPSqeGrwasTbJTw9A=w600-h315-p-k "New item by John Thornton") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/KN9dhrW8SG1ptnax7) ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1820 "2020-11-04T21:54:27Z")
Snerk. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1821 "2020-11-04T21:55:00Z")
The middle-schooler in me just laughed out loud. So did the middle-aged man. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618/1822 "2020-11-04T21:57:43Z")
Meth is a crime, right? Damn, they almost had a point. 🤣 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618.md?page=90) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-day-week-month-s-year-2020-follow-along-thread/924618.md?page=92)