# Election math **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [November 12, 2020, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-math/925432 "2020-11-12T15:03:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-math/925432/41 "2020-11-12T17:06:01Z")
I was thinking the ballot box itself is the time machine. Perhaps a TARDIS in disguise. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-math/925432/42 "2020-11-12T17:18:28Z")
I’ll add one more comment to the original video’s claim, now that I’ve thought about it some more. The plot he created was basically “what percentage of all voters split their ticket as a function of what percentage of voters are GOP-leaning in a precinct”. If one assumes that there is percentage of GOP voters that split their ticket, a linear relationship is to be expected. I.e., the more GOP voters there are, the more ticket-splitting away from Trump there will be. The slope of the line is basically the percentage of GOP voters that split their ticket. OP - have your concerns been answered? Are you willing to take this information back to wherever you heard this particular claim to help clarify things for them? ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-math/925432/43 "2020-11-12T17:28:28Z")
> [@sbright33](#): > > The raw data is available for each record I’ve isolated them to save time so you don’t have to download gigabytes. > [@sbright33](#): > > I promise to link to the votes returned before they are sent. > [@sbright33](#): > > Source is our government data. Will you be backing up ANY of these claims/promises? ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-math/925432/44 "2020-11-12T18:15:17Z")
> [@sbright33](#): > > While we are here. Can you explain how roughly 100k votes were returned before the ballots were sent? Or shortly after leaving no time for mail transit. The raw data is available for each record I’ve isolated them to save time so you don’t have to download gigabytes. > [@Jas09](#): > > A quick summary shows that many of them were likely ballots picked up and returned in-person the same day. The ones with previous dates are almost certainly just data entry errors. Sorry to harp on this, but @sbright33, your “ballots returned before ballots sent out” claim seemed so impossible, that an explanation like what @Jas09 found; that some were ballots returned the same day they were picked up or were the result of data error seems a far more reasonable explanation. Did it occur to you to wonder if there was some reason for ballots being returned “with no time for mail transit”? When you’re presented with an extraordinary claim like that, it’s a good idea to be skeptical. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-math/925432/45 "2020-11-12T18:40:54Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > When you’re presented with an extraordinary claim like that, it’s a good idea to be skeptical. Even more fundamentally, I don’t even understand what the point would be. Why would someone committing large-scale mail-in vote fraud screw up the dates? How does that work? Do the fraudsters have time machines? Is the idea that the postal service back-dated when the ballots were received? If so,why? They were all before the deadline. If they are totally bogus entries (meaning the ballots were never sent, received, or returned) then why wouldn’t whoever entered the fake data do it correctly? ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-math/925432/46 "2020-11-12T18:45:38Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Why would someone committing large-scale mail-in vote fraud screw up the dates? How does that work? Do the fraudsters have time machines? Is the idea that the postal service back-dated when the ballots were received? If so,why? They were all before the deadline. If they are totally bogus entries (meaning the ballots were never sent, received, or returned) then why wouldn’t whoever entered the fake data do it correctly? It seems that a fundamental part of all conspiracy theories is that the conspirators are both masterminds in control of everything while at the same time so incompetent that they make very obvious and visible mistakes. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-math/925432/47 "2020-11-12T19:22:17Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > And the two things he is comparing (% GOP SP vs. %Trump - %GOP SP) is sketchy for a few reasons (mainly because subtracting percentages with different denominators never sits right with me). I didn’t bother looking at the graph but this sentence tells me all I need to know. It’s bullshit. If you have two variables X and Y and you look at the correlation between Y and X-Y you will always get a negative correlation unless X and Y are highly correlated AND X is more variable than Y. All he is really showing is that the proportion of the population that is GOP SP is negatively correlated with minus the proportion of the population that is GOP SP. Also this is a crazy stat to use in the first place. Why are we interested in the difference between the Trump vote and the proportion of split ticket. It might make sense (but still be wrong for the reasons above) to look at the proportion of Split ticket vs GOP or Split ticket vs Trump. But the only conclusion I can draw is that he’s specifically chose this comparison because it showed the cleanest graph. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-math/925432/48 "2020-11-12T19:26:28Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > > [@Jas09](#): > > > > Why would someone committing large-scale mail-in vote fraud screw up the dates? How does that work? Do the fraudsters have time machines? Is the idea that the postal service back-dated when the ballots were received? If so,why? They were all before the deadline. If they are totally bogus entries (meaning the ballots were never sent, received, or returned) then why wouldn’t whoever entered the fake data do it correctly? > > It seems that a fundamental part of all conspiracy theories is that the conspirators are both masterminds in control of everything while at the same time so incompetent that they make very obvious and visible mistakes. And yet these “masterminds” left Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham in office, left the Senate in balance or in Republican hands and lost some House seats. You’d think _competent_ masterminds would have made sure to gain control of Congress. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-math/925432/49 "2020-11-12T19:28:57Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > You’d think _competent_ masterminds would have made sure to gain control of Congress. That’s what THEY want you to think. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-math/925432/50 "2020-11-12T23:04:02Z")
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**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-math/925432/51 "2020-11-12T23:06:44Z")
Closing this topic. OP never did explain why his link might be interesting, nor give any evidence that it’s claims were true. And now the topic is going on circles. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-math/925432.md?page=2)