# Election of a new Governor of California, 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 3, 2026, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986 "2026-04-03T03:51:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![Roderick\_Femm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roderick_femm/32/14875_2.png) [@Roderick\_Femm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roderick_Femm)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2026, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/241 "2026-05-26T21:12:42Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > Without endorsing anyone, they could have gotten them to agree This part by itself is laughably naïve. Why would any candidate who wants to run agree to not run? Would this conference have been open to the public and press? Also, please note that in April the leading D candidate dropped out due to scandal, thus leaving the race wide open, and at that point Becerra was 4th among D candidates. This is a non-solution in search of a problem. The complaint was that now Dems have to vote for a strategic candidate instead of one they want. How is that made anything but worse by a backroom deal like you are proposing? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2026, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/242 "2026-05-26T21:28:42Z")
Again, I’m not proposing a “backroom deal.” People seem to be reacting as if I am suggesting that the candidates all get together and agree who will be the nominee. That’s ridiculous, and not at all what I am suggesting. I don’t see why people wouldn’t agree that, if the math is clear that they will ALL lose, that they pivot, and at least have a plan for how to do that depending on the emergent circumstances: something like, if there is a 50% or greater chance that there are two Republicans in the top two (including margin of error), anyone polling below 5% will drop out and endorse someone polling above 10%. Apparently, this is silly and impossible, so I give up. ---
**Author:** ![Roderick\_Femm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roderick_femm/32/14875_2.png) [@Roderick\_Femm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roderick_Femm)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2026, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/243 "2026-05-26T21:29:36Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > Apparently, this is silly and impossible Yes, yes it is. > [@Dr.Drake](#): > > so I give up Deleted. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2026, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/244 "2026-05-27T00:28:57Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > Well, that’s a great reason to avoid doing something useful. To be fair, it is true that they’re poor communicators as a brand This has only happened once. and the dems are very good at communicating. > [@Roderick\_Femm](#): > > This part by itself is laughably naïve. Why would any candidate who wants to run agree to not run? Would this conference have been open to the public and press? Right, good points. > [@Roderick\_Femm](#): > > This is a non-solution in search of a problem. Yep. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2026, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/245 "2026-05-27T20:22:49Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > I don’t see why people wouldn’t agree that, if the math is clear that they will ALL lose, that they pivot, and at least have a plan for how to do that depending on the emergent circumstances: something like, if there is a 50% or greater chance that there are two Republicans in the top two (including margin of error), anyone polling below 5% will drop out and endorse someone polling above 10%. I’m not sure why you’re getting so much push-back on this. If it’s strictly by numbers—using some average of polls that all candidates agree are credible—then it’s merely a matter of ‘when this benchmark is reached, this is what we do.’ Some of the lower-polling candidates might grumble. But how could they defend failing to keep the ballot from being ‘all-Republicans’? It’s not as though impossible-to-agree standards are being posited. It’s not as if anyone would be saying anything fuzzy and amorphous like ‘_if you know you can’t win then you must drop out_’—instead, they’d be acting based on hard, cold numbers (to which they’d agreed in advance). ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2026, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/246 "2026-05-28T17:45:22Z")
The thing is, they all believe they can win. That’s why they got into the race in the first place. Yes, that means some of them are delusional, but that’s par for the course for politicians. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2026, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/247 "2026-05-28T18:45:47Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > The thing is, they all believe they can win. That’s why they got into the race in the first place. Nope- there are other reasons for being a candidate- gathering funds, or just “testing the waters” for the next time. ---
**Author:** ![CaveMike](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cavemike/32/16379_2.png) [@CaveMike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaveMike)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2026, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/248 "2026-05-28T18:50:09Z")
Or a candidate wants something to get out: Campaign debt relief, a position, support in a future race. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2026, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/249 "2026-05-28T19:01:11Z")
Good points. ---
**Author:** ![Roderick\_Femm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roderick_femm/32/14875_2.png) [@Roderick\_Femm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roderick_Femm)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2026, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/250 "2026-05-29T20:11:17Z")
It appears that more people are making their final decisions in the race. Bianco, Porter and Mahan have all been going down in the polls over the past week, and Hilton, Becerra and Steyer have continued to rise. The difference between Becerra and Steyer is now 3.6 points; Becerra is virtually tied with Hilton. 5 days until the end of the primary. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2026, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/251 "2026-05-29T21:30:28Z")
> [@Roderick\_Femm](#): > > It appears that more people are making their final decisions in the race. Bianco, Porter and Mahan have all been going down in the polls over the past week, I voted for Mahan, I actually met him once. I like his politics- but he isnt gonna win this time. My guess- Becerra vs Hilton, with Becerra winning the general by a large margin. ---
**Author:** ![Roderick\_Femm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roderick_femm/32/14875_2.png) [@Roderick\_Femm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roderick_Femm)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2026, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/252 "2026-06-01T14:50:51Z")
The final day before the election, Becerra has jumped ahead of Hilton. Steyer is still growing as well, but remains 1.9% to 2.6% behind Hilton. Not conclusive, of course, as these are all well within the margins of error. According to one of the polling sources, Steyer has outspent the nearest spending candidate (Mahan) by a factor of 12. For that reason alone, I hope he doesn’t make it into the general election. About primaries in general, there is a piece on the NPR front page this morning arguing against straight party primaries. [How closed party primaries lead to a more polarized Congress : NPR](https://www.npr.org/2026/05/30/nx-s1-5839201/party-primaries-polarized-congress) p.s. I won’t be watching results on TV, I never do, I prefer to wake up Wednesday morning to a complete surprise, pleasant or unpleasant as the case may be. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2026, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/253 "2026-06-01T15:14:19Z")
I dropped off my ballot this morning at secured official drop box. Not trusting the USPS at this late date. I voted a straight\* [Los Angeles County Democrat ticket (pdf)](https://assets.nationbuilder.com/lademocrats/pages/445/attachments/original/1778609565/LACDP_Election_Voter_Guide_2026.pdf), and used [Blue Voter Guide](https://bluevoterguide.org/) for info to decide the un-endorsed races. I voted Becerra for governor as the most viable candidate who’s not Republican or a billionaire. \*Voted NO on the measure ER that raises the county sales tax for hospitals. Too regressive. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2026, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/254 "2026-06-01T18:12:35Z")
Here’s _USA Today_ on the race: > **[Who will win the California governor primary? Three names have emerged](https://www.aol.com/articles/win-california-governor-primary-three-142945866.html)** > > Steve Hilton, Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer are vying for the top two spots in California's complicated and closely watched gubernatorial primary. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2026, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/255 "2026-06-03T13:18:19Z")
It will be Hilton-R (28%) and Becerra-D (25%) in the runoff. Steyer-D (20%) in third. Xavier Becerra will be our next Governor ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2026, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/256 "2026-06-03T15:46:25Z")
Well, only 57% of votes cast, but that is the way the numbers are running. It is quite possible that Becerra will have more votes than Hilton in the end of the primary count. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2026, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/257 "2026-06-03T15:58:14Z")
Which order the top two are in doesn’t really matter, though, because either way, those two are the general-election candidates, and in California, any Democrat will beat any Republican. What would matter is who’s in second versus third, especially if it ended up with the two Democrats in the top two slots. The current numbers make that look unlikely, but I also know that there’s reason to expect earlier returns to not be representative of the full count. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2026, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/258 "2026-06-03T16:03:50Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Which order the top two are in doesn’t really matter, though, because either way, those two are the general-election candidates, and in California, any Democrat will beat any Republican. True, but my point still stands- those numbers will change from now to the final count. It is even _slightly_ possible it will be two dems. **But what it WONT be is two Republicans,** so all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, tearing of hair and blaming the Democratic party was pointless. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2026, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/259 "2026-06-03T16:11:47Z")
> **But what it WONT be is two Republicans,** so all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, tearing of hair and blaming the Democratic party was pointless. This is the main takeaway. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2026, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986/260 "2026-06-03T16:12:36Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > This is the main takeaway. Yep, important point- and it never was gonna be that, despite some early polls. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-of-a-new-governor-of-california-2026/1028986.md?page=14)