# Election predictions here **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 7, 2014, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616 "2014-10-07T02:04:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2014, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/21 "2014-10-09T16:32:45Z")
> [@Superdude](#): > > I’m only making ONE prediction, but it’s a big one: > > I predict that Mitch McConnell loses, and Alison Lundergan Grimes is elected senator from Kentucky. If that happened, it will be a great day. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2014, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/22 "2014-10-09T17:03:15Z")
We wouldn’t get to hear Jon Stewart’s Tooter the Turtle impression anymore, though. ---
**Author:** ![Superdude](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/superdude/32/13450_2.png) [@Superdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superdude)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2014, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/23 "2014-10-09T17:07:05Z")
Small price to pay. Remember how people wondered how he could be funny and critical at the same time once Bush left office? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2014, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/24 "2014-10-09T17:33:17Z")
Senate will be 50 Republicans, 50 Democrats. House… Republicans will gain 7 seats. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 8:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/25 "2014-10-10T08:23:15Z")
I have a bonus prediction: despite my belief that the GOP will win 8 seats, we won’t know they have won the majority by the end of election day. LA and GA will go to runoffs, AK won’t have fully reported until after midnight, and I’m sure there will be one recount somewhere(If I had to guess, Iowa). ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/26 "2014-10-10T16:18:43Z")
If McConnell loses, I predict a huge battle between the Teapublicans to nominate an extreme looney like Paul Ryan, and the more traditional Republican money worshippers. Probable result, a compromise … a looney Teapublican who will jump when the money boys say “jump.” Expect a lot of crazy social legislation on issues like abortion, gun rights and immigration, and unrelenting pressure to cut taxes on the rich and gut social welfare programs. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/27 "2014-10-10T16:33:57Z")
Dem + Independent= 51 seats, Rep = 49 seats. Democrats gain 6 house seats. Mitch McConnell defeated and withdraws into his shell. Dems gain governors office in MI and WI. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/28 "2014-10-10T16:37:07Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > If McConnell loses, I predict a huge battle between the Teapublicans to nominate an extreme looney like Paul Ryan, and the more traditional Republican money worshippers. Probable result, a compromise … a looney Teapublican who will jump when the money boys say “jump.” Expect a lot of crazy social legislation on issues like abortion, gun rights and immigration, and unrelenting pressure to cut taxes on the rich and gut social welfare programs. All on one election? ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/29 "2014-10-10T16:53:14Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > All on one election? McConnell is the Republican Senate Minority Leader, perhaps Majority Leader in November, he will have to be replaced. Most of my prediction comes from past behavior of Senate Republicans. For example they were ready to push for another government shutdown until the money boys said, “Cut that out.” I expect more of same from the Republicans, why should I not? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Joker\_and\_the\_Thief](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e79b87/32.png) [@The\_Joker\_and\_the\_Thief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Joker_and_the_Thief)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/30 "2014-10-10T17:09:56Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > If McConnell loses, I predict a huge battle between the Teapublicans to nominate an extreme looney like Paul Ryan, and the more traditional Republican money worshippers. Probable result, a compromise … a looney Teapublican who will jump when the money boys say “jump.” Expect a lot of crazy social legislation on issues like abortion, gun rights and immigration, and unrelenting pressure to cut taxes on the rich and gut social welfare programs. I doubt it. The establishment usually has a lock on the party, which is why they’re the establishment and not just ‘those old guys over there’. I also wouldn’t think of Paul Ryan as an extreme loonie; he’s closer to a compromise candidate in my eyes. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/31 "2014-10-10T23:03:36Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > McConnell is the Republican Senate Minority Leader, perhaps Majority Leader in November, he will have to be replaced. Most of my prediction comes from past behavior of Senate Republicans. For example they were ready to push for another government shutdown until the money boys said, “Cut that out.” I expect more of same from the Republicans, why should I not? If you’re talking about majority leader, I’d put my money on Lamar Alexander, a lot more moderate than McConnell actually. The Tea Partiers won’t like it, but they don’t have the votes to do anything about it. Ryan is in the House so can’t be Senate majority leader. He won’t be Speaker either if Boehner steps down. The Tea PArty’s chances of getting the Speaker they want are a little better, but still not great. And the Republicans didn’t stop the shutdowns because of the money boys. THey stopped because they were staring at losing the House and returning control of everything back to the Democrats until the ACA rollout saved their hides. Believe it or not, even most Tea Partiers are capable of learning from painful experience. ---
**Author:** ![Randvek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/a6a055/32.png) [@Randvek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Randvek)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/32 "2014-10-12T23:21:36Z")
My prediction: whichever party looks like it will be in the Senate majority after the election won’t end up that way. I’m predicting some defections in a close Senate to switch the party in control. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/33 "2014-10-13T01:53:40Z")
Given that there could be as many as four independents, you never know. The only sure thing is Sanders. The other three could go either way. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/34 "2014-10-13T06:49:24Z")
Bill Cassidy leads in the Louisiana senate race, ahead of Democrat Mary Landrieu and constitutional conservative Col. Rob Maness. But Landrieu will do surprisingly well in November, denying Cassidy a clear majority and forcing a runoff election in December. With Kansas’ newly elected independent Senator Greg Orman remaining coy about who he will caucus with, all eyes will be on the Bayou state in December. But in the end low turnout and voter suppression will enable Cassidy to squeak by, albeit under a humiliating cloud of suspicion. Why was he afraid to debate Landrieu on October 9th? Why did the Feds have to [sue](http://mirroronamerica.blogspot.com/2011/07/todays-update-of-voter-suppression-2012.html) Louisiana to obey the National Voter Registration Act of 1993? True Americans will understand that only cowards steal elections. Standing up to them will be understood as a moral imperative. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/35 "2014-10-13T07:36:45Z")
My prediction is that the Republicans pick up a few seats in both houses, probably just enough to flip the Senate, but it’ll be close. It’s looking to me like Senate Republicans will pick up Montana, West Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas, probably South Dakota and Alaska, and maybe Colorado, and they’ll lose Kansas to Orman. In the House, contrary to **BobLibDem** ’s prediction, there’s no way I see the Democrats ending with a net gain in the House (and I’d like to see your reasoning behind it). The Democrats have already pretty surrendered two House seats to the Republicans (Utah 4, NC 7), and Stefanik will beat Owens in New York, and the only Republican Congressman who looks likely to lose his seat is Grimm, and even that might not happen (His district is Staten Island and part of Brooklyn, his opponent is from Brooklyn, and Staten Islanders don’t tend to vote for Brooklynites). So where are all these Republican seats the Democrats are going to take? ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/36 "2014-10-13T11:06:31Z")
Republicans pick up a few senate seats but not enough to flip control. Orman eventually caucuses with the Democrats since 2016 will most likely be a strong Democratic year. The House basically stays at it is. There’s always one or two upsets , but there’s no low hanging fruit for the Republicans. Illinois governor race is basically a tie. I’ll give it to Quinn as I figure ties go to the incumbent. There’s not much else exciting on the ballot, most people don’t seem to really be enthusiastic about Quinn or Rauner, so turnout will be key. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/37 "2014-10-13T13:05:34Z")
My reasoning for Dem gains is thus: 1- The ACA is not the apocalyptic disaster that the Republicans spent five years scaring voters over. For those voters motivated by the ACA in 2010 and 2012, there are going to be some defections. 2- Tolerance of homosexuality continues to increase and at a faster rate every year. Voters motivated by homophobia to vote Republican are now free to consider voting Democratic. 3- The economy is clearly improving, despite 5+ years of Republican sabotage. All of a sudden, “the Obama economy” is no longer a millstone. 4- Incidents of police brutality against minorities and Republican attempts at voter suppression will lead to greater minority turnout than in 2010. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/38 "2014-10-13T13:58:40Z")
Ok, but what specific seats will the Democrats pick up? Saying things like “The ACA isn’t as bad as people thought” and “the economy is getting better” are probably good generic indicators for the Democrats, but we’re less than a month out from the election, and we’ve got polling data and other things that give us a general idea of how each candidate is going to do. This isn’t to say that all the polling is necessarily going to be accurate, and there always are surprises, but we can say, in a general sense, “this district is probably going to go Republican, and this one is probably going to go Democratic, and this third one can go either way.” So what Republican seats do you see the Democrats picking up? I ask this, because, out of all the races across the country, I only see 12 Republican seats that the Democrats even have a chance of picking up, even on the outside, looking at polling data, compared to something like 22 Democratic seats the Republicans have a chance of picking up. So I’d be very surprised if the Democrats saw gains in the House this election, but I’m open to being convinced. So what are you seeing that I’m not? What seats are going to flip? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/39 "2014-10-13T14:27:33Z")
I just think polling for House seats isn’t all that great. [This site](http://www.electionprojection.com/2014-elections/2014-house-elections.php) has a bunch of weak GOP holds and weak GOP pickups, the only one I know of personally is MI-7, where I think Tim Wahlberg is going down. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616/40 "2014-10-13T16:07:45Z")
Regardless which candidates are popular or not, or their messages, or who’s trending in whichever poll, the only metric that is going to matter in the end is turnout. Fear and hatred are effective motivational tools for Republicans who have fine-tuned it into an art form. Democrats’ GOTV machine for off-year elections is simply terrible. I predict the Republicans will easily keep the House and take the Senate. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-predictions-here/700616.md?page=3)