# Election Turnout Prediction Thread

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-turnout-prediction-thread/471082>\
**Category:** In My Humble Opinion\
**Created:** [November 4, 2008, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-turnout-prediction-thread/471082 "2008-11-04T17:15:06Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 5\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![Eva\_Luna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e495f1/32.png) [@Eva\_Luna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eva_Luna)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-turnout-prediction-thread/471082/1 "2008-11-04T17:15:06Z")

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Here’s a spot for turnout predictions, however you would like to slice them (divided by state, age group, party, however you want to predict them).

I’ll start; I predict record turnout, over 65% both in the U.S. as a whole, and in Illinois.

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**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-turnout-prediction-thread/471082/2 "2008-11-04T17:29:36Z")

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67.1%.

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**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-turnout-prediction-thread/471082/3 "2008-11-04T17:30:08Z")

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Heck, in NM, 40% of register voters had already voted as of Saturday! I’m going to go with the gambit and say 85% in New Mexico, and 75% in the rest of the country.

New Mexico is so high this year because, even though we only have 5 electorates, the split is very even; therefore, every vote counts for a higher percentage of an electorate than in any other state, this year.

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**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-turnout-prediction-thread/471082/4 "2008-11-04T17:41:14Z")

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Are we guessing eligible voters or registered voters?

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**Author:** ![Eva\_Luna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e495f1/32.png) [@Eva\_Luna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eva_Luna)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/election-turnout-prediction-thread/471082/5 "2008-11-04T17:44:22Z")

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> [@Mahaloth](#):
>
> Are we guessing eligible voters or registered voters?

Whatever you feel like guessing. If you want to guess both, that would be a bonus.