If there’s one thing I’ve learned from living through seven full Presidential administrations, things rarely go as people expect. I have little doubt that Trump will feed his opposition. But will he feed it primarily through rhetoric, which will incite them but be unlikely to do much else, or will he feed it with unpopular policies, which will result in severe electoral backlash?
The immature left is sufficiently unpopular with the general public and intensely hated enough by the conservative base that a very successful political strategy would be in fact to incite them as much as possible while getting things done that the American people can support, like balanced budgets, job creation, tax reform, getting control of our immigration system, etc. Especially on the last issue, rioting by immigration protesters can be very useful to the right-wing cause, assuming they let Trump’s rhetoric on the issue incite them.
Certainly Roberts would be wise to give it to Trump only three words at a time. Any more than that, and Trump won’t be able to repeat it back accurately.
If Trump plays his cards right, he might assemble a winning coalition in 2020 again. Basically, the Red States will always be Republican, at least for another decade. But the Rust Belt is what’s shaky. If Trump goes all-out and spares no expense in reviving the Rust Belt - doing everything for the Rust Belt - he may just hold it again and the GOP will win in 2020.
One thing Trump is very good at is salesmanship. He doesn’t need to make things better for the Rust Belt, he just needs to make people believe things are better. I’ve already seen lots of people who think he single-handedly saved the entire U.S. economy with the Carrier deal.
Tangibly, it’s almost impossible to revive the Rust Belt economically, although I understand that Pittsburgh is a success story in converting itself from steel city to a high-tech hub.
But if Trump keeps talking endlessly about the Rust Belt this and Rust Belt that, the plight of the Rust Belters, tweeting every other week with “I talked with CEO XXX to bring 550 jobs back to Small-Town-In-Ohio” and makes a constant point of talking about that region, it’s entirely possible he’ll hold every state he won this year.