# Electoral map **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 3, 2012, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-map/627055 "2012-07-03T01:43:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2012, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-map/627055/1 "2012-07-03T01:43:30Z")
What would the map look like if we filled in the states we can lock in right now? (lock in=We know for a fact who’ll carry it) ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2012, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-map/627055/2 "2012-07-03T01:58:15Z")
[Scroll down](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/). ---
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2012, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-map/627055/3 "2012-07-03T02:10:10Z")
Thanks **card**! Very cool. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2012, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-map/627055/4 "2012-07-03T12:45:32Z")
This is probably the most conservative map I could come up with right now (meaning the most “toss ups”): [http://www.270towin.com/2012\_election\_predictions.php?mapid=oog](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=oog) Something more likely would be this: [http://www.270towin.com/2012\_election\_predictions.php?mapid=ooi](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ooi) You can play around and set up whatever you feel is most “locked in” to get the state of the field. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2012, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-map/627055/5 "2012-07-03T12:47:29Z")
And here is a somewhat plausible doomsday scenario: [http://www.270towin.com/2012\_election\_predictions.php?mapid=ooj](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ooj) ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2012, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-map/627055/6 "2012-07-03T13:11:00Z")
I start here [here](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ooo) and end up [here](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=oos) ---
**Author:** ![Uncle\_Jocko](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uncle_jocko/32/2932_2.png) [@Uncle\_Jocko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncle_Jocko)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2012, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-map/627055/7 "2012-07-03T13:50:45Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > And here is a somewhat plausible doomsday scenario: [http://www.270towin.com/2012\_election\_predictions.php?mapid=ooj](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ooj) Yikes! That’s a bit too close to plausible for me. Come on, New Hampshire! ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2012, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-map/627055/8 "2012-07-03T13:57:42Z")
I think it’s not really as plausible as it seems because NE changed their split somehow. 538 has Obama at a very low win chance in any of those districts this time around. So without that if everything else stays the same Romney would actually win 270-268. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2012, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-map/627055/9 "2012-07-03T16:15:09Z")
I agree that a Romney win will be a close one. Somewhere between 270 and 285. An Obama win could be another thing entirely.