# Electoral-Vote.com - Is it a Pro-Kerry website? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 7, 2004, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010 "2004-10-07T12:37:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Kel\_Varnsen\_Latex\_Division](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/aeb1de/32.png) [@Kel\_Varnsen\_Latex\_Division](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kel_Varnsen_Latex_Division)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/1 "2004-10-07T12:37:53Z")
[Electoral-Vote.com](http://Electoral-Vote.com) is projecting that the final electoral vote will be 538 (Kerry) to 0 (Bush). Are they secretly (or openly) a pro-Kerry website? The data they have doesn’t seem to support their conclusion that Kerry will win a lot of the states they have his winning. [http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct07p.html](http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct07p.html) ---
**Author:** ![cj\_finn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4bbf92/32.png) [@cj\_finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cj_finn)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/2 "2004-10-07T12:45:26Z")
I think that site has either been hacked or its experiencing a malfunction because it actually showed Bush having the edge in electoral votes last night. cj ---
**Author:** ![Aro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b3f665/32.png) [@Aro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aro)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/3 "2004-10-07T12:46:19Z")
What? it currently says: > [@](#): > > Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 253 Bush 264 [http://electoral-vote.com/](http://electoral-vote.com/) ---
**Author:** ![Kel\_Varnsen\_Latex\_Division](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/aeb1de/32.png) [@Kel\_Varnsen\_Latex\_Division](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kel_Varnsen_Latex_Division)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/4 "2004-10-07T12:48:16Z")
> [@Aro](#): > > What? it currently says: > > [http://electoral-vote.com/](http://electoral-vote.com/) Click on the link for projected final results. [http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct07p.html](http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct07p.html) ---
**Author:** ![Kel\_Varnsen\_Latex\_Division](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/aeb1de/32.png) [@Kel\_Varnsen\_Latex\_Division](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kel_Varnsen_Latex_Division)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/5 "2004-10-07T12:49:20Z")
I am sorry, that should read projected final map. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/6 "2004-10-07T12:49:29Z")
:eek: That’s bizarre! The webmaster has explicitly said he’s a Democrat, but his coverage has striven to be balanced, IMO. I’m not sure what to make of this. Daniel ---
**Author:** ![Leonard](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a6a055/32.png) [@Leonard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leonard)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/7 "2004-10-07T12:52:23Z")
To get to the map **Kel Varnsen - Latex Division** linked to, click on “Projected Final Map.” I’m not sure what that means, but I noticed that the projected final shows Texas as 98% Kerry, 0% Bush, and 1% Nader. There must be some malfunction. There’s no way Nader would beat Bush in Texas! (Although I would probably hurt myself laughing if he did.) ---
**Author:** ![Aro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b3f665/32.png) [@Aro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aro)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/8 "2004-10-07T12:53:08Z")
Looks like that is just a default setting they use as a template before putting in the results of the actual polls as they come in. It could easily have been defaulted to 100% Bush. I hardly see it as in any way as indicative of partisanship. YMMV. ---
**Author:** ![Revtim](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/revtim/32/1042_2.png) [@Revtim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Revtim)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/9 "2004-10-07T12:53:08Z")
I’d bet it’s simply a coding error. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/10 "2004-10-07T13:04:22Z")
Its commentary is as pro-Kerry as that at [electionprojection.com](http://electionprojection.com) is pro-Bush, but both sites report poll results accurately. They do use different polls, and electionprojection is not updated daily, but it’s worth checking both places for a clearer picture. ---
**Author:** ![Malodorous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e47774/32.png) [@Malodorous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malodorous)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/11 "2004-10-07T13:16:46Z")
Apparently Kerry has one hell of an October suprise. Maybe pics from Bush’s and Osama secret love nest. Anyways, I’m impressed that the electoral-vote algoritims are able to predict such a factor. Seriously though, the site claims that it draws the least squares regression through the two candidates poll numbers. While I suppose that if Bush’s numbers have been trending downward in every state, even in states like Texas where he’s ahead a considerable margin, then projecting out might cause the computer to think he’ll be at zero in every state by Nov. 2 If you click on say Alaska, though, it looks obvious from the graph that the opposite is true but Bush is still given 0%. So I’d say that its broke, which is a pity since it would be interesting to know what the least square regression would be. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/12 "2004-10-07T13:51:25Z")
If you click and hold the “Depress for current map” button – you may have to click several times or hold the button down, it’s a bit fiddly – you get today’s results instead of projected, which shows Kerry 253, Bush 264. Something is obviously broken, I’ve seen that site working correctly in the past. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/13 "2004-10-07T13:52:00Z")
> [@Kel Varnsen - Latex Division](#): > > Are they secretly (or openly) a pro-Kerry website? From their [Welcome Page](http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/welcome.html): > [@](#): > > I am a Kerry supporter. I am open about that. Despite my political preference, I have bent over backwards to be scrupulously honest about all the numbers, and have carefully designed the main page to be strictly nonpartisan. Only the third row of menu items below the map contains material that could be considered pro-Kerry (e.g., jokes about George Bush). If you are a Kerry supporter, an independent, a moderate Republican who is fed up with the President’s fiscal and other policies or even a conservative Republican who feels betrayed and who has a sense of humor, you will probably enjoy them. If you want an election site that has a pro-Bush bias from beginning to end, including all over the main page, try [www.electionprojection.com](http://www.electionprojection.com). ---
**Author:** ![zut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zut/32/2875_2.png) [@zut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zut)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/14 "2004-10-07T13:53:02Z")
> [@Malodorous](#): > > So I’d say that its broke, which is a pity since it would be interesting to know what the least square regression would be. Well, _yesterday’s_ [projected EC votes](http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct06p.html) show a pretty substantial win for Bush. It should be noted, though, that the predictions here appear (based on te graphs that come up when you click on a state) to use data from all the way back in the June/July timeframe. What with the post-convention and post-debate poll volatility, I’m skeptical of the meaningfulness of these projections. ---
**Author:** ![Chance\_the\_Gardener](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/eada6e/32.png) [@Chance\_the\_Gardener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chance_the_Gardener)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/15 "2004-10-07T14:20:21Z")
Yeah, I’ve never taken [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) seriously. The “votemaster” uses a dodgy methodology to issue his predictions. His map carries a mixed bag of numbers from different polls, so it’s like apples and oranges. One day he’ll report Survey USA saying Bush is up 6 in Wisconsin, then a couple days later he’ll report Zogby saying that Kerry is up 3 in Wisconsin. That’s not a nine point leap for Kerry! Those are two different polls! His whole map is like that. This projected final map showing Kerry winning 538 electoral votes is based on that sort of counting. His “final projections” are based on what would happen if his numbers kept changing at the same rate they were since the last change. So let’s use that Wisconsin example I just made: it looks like an increase for Kerry, but it really isn’t. Sure, Kerry may actually have gone up in most polls in Wisconsin, but that doesn’t guarantee he’ll keep going up by nine points or even two or one point every couple of days. Most polls agree that Kerry leapt up in the polls as a result of the debates, but will he keep leaping up by the same amount constantly until Election Day? Well, as a Kerry supporter, I hope so, but I’m sure that won’t happen. If you want accurate numbers, pick one poll and stick with it! It’s important to follow as many polls as possible, but to remember that the data from these polls mix like pickles and ice cream. It’s noteworthy that most polls show Kerry trending upward, even though these polls will differ as to how Kerry is doing in any given state. ---
**Author:** ![NurseCarmen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5daacb/32.png) [@NurseCarmen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NurseCarmen)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/16 "2004-10-07T14:26:51Z")
Looks like he’s working on it as we speak. The number is still 538, but he’s working on getting the colors on the states. I’ll give the guy a break for sleeping in. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/17 "2004-10-07T14:47:53Z")
He admits that he’s a Democrat. ---
**Author:** ![Gaudere](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e495f1/32.png) [@Gaudere](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gaudere)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/18 "2004-10-07T15:10:51Z")
It’s clearly just a coding error. They’ll get it fixed. ---
**Author:** ![Malodorous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e47774/32.png) [@Malodorous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malodorous)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/19 "2004-10-07T16:11:48Z")
> [@Chance the Gardener](#): > > One day he’ll report Survey USA saying Bush is up 6 in Wisconsin, then a couple days later he’ll report Zogby saying that Kerry is up 3 in Wisconsin. That’s not a nine point leap for Kerry! Those are two different polls! His whole map is like that. Well yeah, but those different polls are supposedly measuring the same thing, so at least in theory this technique should be valid. Of course polling methodology is sketchy and supposedly getting worse, and the guy that runs the site has been quite candid about that. Nonetheless if he just used one polling firms numbers, its dubious that they would generate enough numbers frequently enough, especially in non-battleground states, to get an up to date feel for how the election is going. Basically, its one technique to get a feel for how the election is going. No technique will be full proof except the poll that happens on Nov 2 (and even that one is far from flawless). > [@](#): > > This projected final map showing Kerry winning 538 electoral votes is based on that sort of counting. His “final projections” are based on what would happen if his numbers kept changing at the same rate they were since the last change. So let’s use that Wisconsin example I just made: it looks like an increase for Kerry, but it really isn’t. I agree that this technique is sketchy, but its not that bad. The site is obviously broken. Theres no way that Kerry has been trending upward at such a rate as to overtake Bush in every state in less then a month. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010/20 "2004-10-07T16:18:39Z")
There is no debate here. The site is run by a Kerry supporter and the aspect pointed out by the OP is clearly a mistake in the coding. Perhaps the OP might want to ask the mods to close this thread or moce it to GQ. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-is-it-a-pro-kerry-website/268010.md?page=2)