# electoral-vote.com revealed **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 1, 2004, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346 "2004-11-01T16:19:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/1 "2004-11-01T16:19:40Z")
The votemaster has been identified. Andrew Tannenbaum. [http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/votemaster-faq.html](http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/votemaster-faq.html) He is a name many of you know. If you don’t know him, he literally wrote the book on computer science and operating systems. Several dozen of them, really. And when I say ‘the’ book, I mean the book that is used in your basic theory class. The kind that people call by the author’s last name. He’s also responsible for a small operating system named Minix, which inspired a young finn named Linus Torvalds to start his own operating system, Linux. This certainly explains how he’s been able to keep bringing more servers and pipeline online as people attack his site… and it gives instant crediblity to his claims of being under attack. Basically, this man knows his math. He knows his theory, and his implementation. He also knows what he knows, and he knows what he doesn’t know. Basically, if I wanted to pick one man to analyze a completely complex and messed up environment, reduce it to structured principles, it would be him. Any comments? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/2 "2004-11-01T16:22:28Z")
**Why** have people been attacking his site? ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/3 "2004-11-01T16:30:55Z")
> [@E-Sabbath](#): > > The votemaster has been identified. Andrew Tannenbaum. > > [http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/votemaster-faq.html](http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/votemaster-faq.html) > > He is a name many of you know. If you don’t know him, he literally wrote the book on computer science and operating systems. Interesting! I skimmed his little “out-of-the-closet” thing earlier today, and was befuddled as to why he thought any of it would be surprising. I had no idea that he was really a bigshot in the world of computers. Thanks for the explanation! Daniel ---
**Author:** ![ultrafilter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/3d9bf3/32.png) [@ultrafilter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultrafilter)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/4 "2004-11-01T16:44:36Z")
I’ll have to check when I get home whether he’s listed as an author on my OS book. He’s almost certainly listed in the bibliography. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/5 "2004-11-01T16:46:50Z")
I’m just not sure there is a debate here. No one is going to badmouth Tannenbaum. ---
**Author:** ![ultrafilter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/3d9bf3/32.png) [@ultrafilter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultrafilter)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/6 "2004-11-01T16:50:44Z")
> [@Liberal](#): > > I’m just not sure there is a debate here. No one is going to badmouth Tannenbaum. Anybody failing an OS class might. I found my book linked in the list of his publications. ---
**Author:** ![Saltire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saltire/32/553_2.png) [@Saltire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saltire)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/7 "2004-11-01T16:53:05Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > **Why** have people been attacking his site? Excellent question. One to which I have little idea of the answer. He has admitted that he’s in favor of Kerry, but he’s been scrupulous in keeping the site non-partisan. I can’t really see why anyone would want his site eliminated. ---
**Author:** ![NurseCarmen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5daacb/32.png) [@NurseCarmen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NurseCarmen)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/8 "2004-11-01T16:55:37Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > **Why** have people been attacking his site? Interestingly, in my experience, his site has been down more often when it shows Kerry in the lead. Go figure. ---
**Author:** ![Tigers2B1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc29f/32.png) [@Tigers2B1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tigers2B1)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/9 "2004-11-01T17:05:34Z")
> [@NurseCarmen](#): > > Interestingly, in my experience, his site has been down more often when it shows Kerry in the lead. > > Go figure. _ **"Tannenbaum, you magnificent bastard. I read your book."** _ - Karl Rove, October 2004 ---
**Author:** ![Menocchio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de053/32.png) [@Menocchio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Menocchio)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/10 "2004-11-01T17:19:02Z")
I’ve been following that site closely since spring, and in teh last few weeks I’ve been taking it with a huge shaker full of salt. Not because I doubt Tannenbaum’s methodology, but because I’ve lost all faith in political polling at all. Normalizing the data, push polls, confounding factor’s such as the cell phone voters, all make it nearly impossible to get a clear picture of what teh trends are from any small sample. Unless one side is running away with the thing, polls are useless. I don’t know who will win tomorrow. Zogby doesn’t know. Rassmussen doesn’t know. Tannenbaum has taught me a valuable lesson: don’t pay any attention to close polls. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/11 "2004-11-01T17:21:35Z")
Karl Rove, thank goodness, is no Patton. More of a Nixon. Well. More of a CREEP. The debate is, the man is an american, but an expat, the man supplies a tool that we are using to judge this election, one that has been recognized as good, independently. Then we suddenly learn that not only is he a name, but he is an expert in the field of complex systems, that he really does understand polling on a level most pollisters do not… I speak as an expert in market research here, having been involved in it for most of my life. (Been involved with such places as Bruskin Goldring, DDC, uhm. JD Power, at a position where I interact with the senior staff and those who design the polls and those who implement them.) How does this change the view of his site, knowing his really ironclad reputation for A: speaking his mind, and B: integrity.? Personally, I respect it more, now. ---
**Author:** ![Mal\_Adroit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df788c/32.png) [@Mal\_Adroit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mal_Adroit)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/12 "2004-11-01T17:52:15Z")
> [@E-Sabbath](#): > > He also knows what he knows, and he knows what he doesn’t know. _Gah._ Run! The Votemaster is Rumsfield! ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/13 "2004-11-01T18:36:47Z")
Okay, you got one of my jokes. 🙂 As far as learning not to trust the polls, well… yeah. That’s exactly my point. Mr Tannenbaum sees what _is_, and then explains it. Well. He’s been a teacher for a long time. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/14 "2004-11-01T18:58:27Z")
I’m a little puzzled why he kept up that least-squares-regression prediction crap for so long. But what the hell. Thanks for all your work, Prof T. You’ve been very comforting in our hour of need. ---
**Author:** ![SmackFu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/53a042/32.png) [@SmackFu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmackFu)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/15 "2004-11-01T18:58:57Z")
His **Modern Operating Systems** book was really good. ---
**Author:** ![chorpler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chorpler/32/2888_2.png) [@chorpler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chorpler)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/16 "2004-11-01T19:17:26Z")
> [@Menocchio](#): > > Normalizing the data, push polls, confounding factor’s such as the cell phone voters, all make it nearly impossible to get a clear picture of what teh trends are from any small sample. Well, apparently Zogby has now completed their poll of 6,000 cell phones, so they’re at least attempting to address that part. ---
**Author:** ![NurseCarmen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5daacb/32.png) [@NurseCarmen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NurseCarmen)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/17 "2004-11-01T19:45:18Z")
> [@chorpler](#): > > Well, apparently Zogby has now completed their poll of 6,000 cell phones, so they’re at least attempting to address that part. At a rather stunning [55% for Kerry compared to 40% for Bush](http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=919). It would be interesting to know if they are weighting the results of that poll into their standard polls somehow. ---
**Author:** ![Tigers2B1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc29f/32.png) [@Tigers2B1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tigers2B1)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/18 "2004-11-01T20:00:05Z")
A cell phone poll that didn’t contact anyone over the age of 29? Why was that? Anyway, here is what The Zogby, himself, says about this cell phone issue - (and a question raised about the missing Amish vote in these telephone polls.) > [@](#): > > \*\*…However, as pollster John Zogby notes, less than ten percent of the adult population falls into the cell-dependent category, far too small a number to skew polls designed to hit a cross-section of voters. Text message surveys might be needed for future elections, Zogby thinks, but for 2004 it is not a huge issue. Besides, there has to be some real evidence that the landline-less really are more liberal than their tethered opposites and, most vital of all, some evidence that this subset of potential voters are, in fact, likely voters. There is none. … > > Still, it wasn’t long before Bush supporters turned the technology equation around. If too much technology underpolled Kerry voters, too little technology underpolled Bush voters. There were forgotten voters in the Amish communities of Ohio and Pennsylvania whom pollsters were missing. The Amish were without Caller ID, landlines—the whole deal. They were invisible to pollsters and, hence a Bush secret weapon….\*\* [http://www.reason.com/links/subsub.shtml](http://www.reason.com/links/subsub.shtml) ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/19 "2004-11-01T20:03:26Z")
It might be that the reason Zogby says “the nature of the poll is outside polling industry standards” is because those polled were subscribers to some sort of MTV thing. I mean, if Bush got 40 whole percent, I’m amazed. ---
**Author:** ![chorpler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chorpler/32/2888_2.png) [@chorpler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chorpler)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346/20 "2004-11-01T20:04:01Z")
> [@Tigers2B1](#): > > A cell phone poll that didn’t contact anyone over the age of 29? Why was that? I thought they were just saying that the vast majority of people with cell phones but no land line are in the 18-29 camp. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-com-revealed/272346.md?page=2)