# Electoral Vote Predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 1, 2012, 9:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545 "2012-11-01T09:23:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 9:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/1 "2012-11-01T09:23:32Z")
[Here is an interactive map](http://www.270towin.com/) where you can divvy up the states however you like and see how the EVs fall. The map default is set for safe states already in the win column for each candidate. This comes to 201 EVs for Obama and 191 for Romney. The rest of the swing states have a default listing of undecided (146 votes) and they include: Colorado (9) Florida (29) Iowa (6) Michigan (16) Nevada (6) New Hampshire (4) North Carolina (15) Ohio (18) Pennsylvania (20) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10) Please post who you think will win each of these Swing States Also if applicable, list any non-swing states that you feel won’t go as anticipated and how many EVs they are worth. Finally, list your EV prediction. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 9:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/2 "2012-11-01T09:28:36Z")
My prediction? Pain. And 303 EVs for Obama, winning all of those states but NC and FL. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 9:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/3 "2012-11-01T09:30:37Z")
**My Prediction** Obama: Iowa (6) Michigan (16) Nevada (6) New Hampshire (4) Ohio (18) Pennsylvania (20) Wisconsin (10) Romney: Colorado (9) Florida (29) North Carolina (15) Virginia (13) All other states will go as expected. [EV Count: Obama 281 Romney 257](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bbwj) ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/4 "2012-11-01T15:10:54Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > **My Prediction** > > Obama: > Iowa (6) > Michigan (16) > Nevada (6) > New Hampshire (4) > Ohio (18) > Pennsylvania (20) > Wisconsin (10) > > Romney: > Colorado (9) > Florida (29) > North Carolina (15) > Virginia (13) > > All other states will go as expected. > > [EV Count: > Obama 281 > Romney 257](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bbwj) Mostly the same, except putting VA in the Obama column for a [294-244 total](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bbOM). ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/5 "2012-11-01T15:42:23Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > **My Prediction** > > Obama: > Iowa (6) > Michigan (16) > Nevada (6) > New Hampshire (4) > Ohio (18) > Pennsylvania (20) > Wisconsin (10) > > Romney: > Colorado (9) > Florida (29) > North Carolina (15) > Virginia (13) > > All other states will go as expected. > > [EV Count: > Obama 281 > Romney 257](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bbwj) You beat me to it. I would concur with this breakdown with 281 for Obama and 257 for Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/6 "2012-11-01T15:53:09Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > **My Prediction** > > Obama: > Iowa (6) > Michigan (16) > Nevada (6) > New Hampshire (4) > Ohio (18) > Pennsylvania (20) > Wisconsin (10) > > Romney: > Colorado (9) > Florida (29) > North Carolina (15) > Virginia (13) > > All other states will go as expected. > > [EV Count: > Obama 281 > Romney 257](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bbwj) I’d move Colorado to Obama (I’d like to move VA too, but that’s probably wishful thinking) 290 EV for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/7 "2012-11-01T15:59:42Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > I’d move Colorado to Obama (I’d like to move VA too, but that’s probably wishful thinking) > > 290 EV for Obama. This is also my guess. I think I’m being on the pessimistic side. ---
**Author:** ![Terraplane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/74df32/32.png) [@Terraplane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terraplane)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/8 "2012-11-01T16:03:49Z")
**Obama** Colorado (9) Florida (29) Iowa (6) Michigan (16) Nevada (6) New Hampshire (4) Ohio (18) Pennsylvania (20) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10) **Romney** North Carolina (15) 332 Obama, 206 Romney. I’m probably being _way_ too optimistic about Florida. It’s been favoring Romney for a while but some of the recent polls show a bit of a swing towards Obama so I’m just gonna cherry pick the hell out of those and go for broke. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/9 "2012-11-01T16:07:14Z")
Colorado (9) - Obama Florida (29) - Romney Iowa (6) - Obama Michigan (16) - Obama Nevada (6) - Obama New Hampshire (4) - Obama North Carolina (15) - Romney Ohio (18) - Obama Pennsylvania (20) - Obama Virginia (13) - Obama Wisconsin (10) - Obama That leads me to: Obama 303 Romney 235 And handy and decisive win for the incumbent. And I will say this again: In what fucking world are Michigan and Pennsylvania in play? That’s a ludicrous position to take. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/10 "2012-11-01T16:21:46Z")
I give FL, VA and NC to Romney - Obama gets 290. ---
**Author:** ![drew870mitchell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drew870mitchell/32/3946_2.png) [@drew870mitchell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drew870mitchell)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/11 "2012-11-01T16:29:37Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > **My Prediction** > > Obama: > Iowa (6) > Michigan (16) > Nevada (6) > New Hampshire (4) > Ohio (18) > Pennsylvania (20) > Wisconsin (10) > > Romney: > Colorado (9) > Florida (29) > North Carolina (15) > Virginia (13) > > All other states will go as expected. > > [EV Count: > Obama 281 > Romney 257](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bbwj) Concur. I expect to hear some hot air about the geographically divided nation, even though all of OH FL VA CO WI IA will be by less than 5%. I would like another mystery state to surprise us with at least a close loss for Obama like Montana did in 2008. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/12 "2012-11-01T17:13:03Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > And I will say this again: In what fucking world are Michigan and Pennsylvania in play? That’s a ludicrous position to take. I agree with you wholeheartedly and would add Wisconsin (Obama) and North Carolina (Romney) as two more states I don’t see as swing states either. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Hamster\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8edcca/32.png) [@The\_Hamster\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Hamster_King)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/13 "2012-11-01T17:29:27Z")
> [@Skammer](#): > > I give FL, VA and NC to Romney - Obama gets 290. I agree. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/14 "2012-11-01T18:09:20Z")
> [@Skammer](#): > > I give FL, VA and NC to Romney - Obama gets 290. This. (Although I’m somewhat optimistic about FL, actually, even though it doesn’t really matter.) ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/15 "2012-11-01T18:11:17Z")
Well, I wouldn’t say that, Shayna. If Obama also takes FL he’ll take VA. That’ll give him a huge EV victory and bragging rights ongoing. Just don’t let him say ‘Capital. I earned political capital.’ ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/16 "2012-11-01T18:16:29Z")
I sadly feel like it’s going to be 257 Obama, 281 Romney. Colorado (9) - Romney Florida (29) - Romney Iowa (6) - Romney Michigan (16) - Obama Nevada (6) - Obama New Hampshire (4) - Obama North Carolina (15) - Romney Ohio (18) - Romney Pennsylvania (20) - Obama Virginia (13) - Romney Wisconsin (10) - Obama I sincerely hope I’m wrong, I really do. But I just have this gut feeling that all the conservative mistrust of polls really is producing a skewed story (self-fulfilling prophecy). I also think that Ohio SoS will do everything in his power to make sure republicans win it. Obama barely won there in 2008 compared to his national numbers. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/17 "2012-11-01T18:29:09Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > II also think that Ohio SoS will do everything in his power to make sure republicans win it. Obama barely won there in 2008 compared to his national numbers. Obama won Ohio by about 4.5 points, as opposed to 7.1 nationally. So not by as much, but not really “barely.” North Carolina, that was barely. I’m going with the safe 303-235 prediction. I agree with Johnathan that giving FL to Obama without giving him VA is hard to swallow. States are not independent events; if things look bad for Romney in Florida, he’s probably DOA in Virginia and Ohio, too (and it wouldn’t matter because he’s lose anyway.) Basically, it’s a series of must wins for Romney as you go east to west; he must win Florida, and then he must win Virginia (and SC, but SC is guaranteed if VA goes his way) and then he must win Ohio, and then he must win another swing state. If he loses any of those steps he’s lost. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/18 "2012-11-01T18:40:43Z")
Fun fact I found out playing with the map; in theory, you could win the election winning just 11 states. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/19 "2012-11-01T18:51:05Z")
And 11 votes, if you think about it. Talk about losing the popular vote! ---
**Author:** ![basefifty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cdc98d/32.png) [@basefifty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/basefifty)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/20 "2012-11-01T19:00:26Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > And 11 votes, if you think about it. Talk about losing the popular vote! Would you win the election if only 1 person in the country voted and voted for you? Obviously you wouldn’t have 270 EVs [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545.md?page=2)