# Electoral Vote Predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 1, 2012, 9:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545 "2012-11-01T09:23:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 9:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/41 "2012-11-03T09:32:35Z")
[Here’s the map I made on Real Clear Politics on 11 September.](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html?map=HI_1,AK_5,FL_3,NH_3,MI_3,VT_1,ME_2,RI_1,NY_1,PA_3,NJ_2,DE_1,MD_1,VA_3,WV_5,OH_3,IN_7,IL_1,CT_3,WI_3,NC_7,DC_1,MA_1,TN_6,AR_5,MO_7,GA_7,SC_7,KY_5,AL_5,LA_5,MS_5,IA_3,MN_3,OK_5,TX_6,NM_3,KS_5,NE_5,SD_6,ND_6,WY_5,MT_6,CO_3,ID_5,UT_5,AZ_7,NV_3,OR_3,WA_2,CA_1) I was unsure at the time, and still am, about Florida - but I’m pretty confident of the rest. In other words, Obama with either 303 or 332. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 10:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/42 "2012-11-03T10:24:37Z")
I predict Obama to lose the popular vote and get 270 electoral votes exactly [with these states](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bfAq). Over the next four years partisan politics will get even worse, if you can believe that. I hope this prediction fails. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/43 "2012-11-03T14:45:47Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Colorado (9) - Obama > Florida (29) - Romney > Iowa (6) - Obama > Michigan (16) - Obama > Nevada (6) - Obama > New Hampshire (4) - Obama > North Carolina (15) - Romney > Ohio (18) - Obama > Pennsylvania (20) - Obama > Virginia (13) - Obama > Wisconsin (10) - Obama > > That leads me to: > > Obama 303 > Romney 235 > > And handy and decisive win for the incumbent. > > And I will say this again: In what fucking world are Michigan and Pennsylvania in play? That’s a ludicrous position to take. I would like to amend my prediction. FL - Obama Obama - 332 Romney - 206 ---
**Author:** ![zoog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/7ea924/32.png) [@zoog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zoog)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/44 "2012-11-03T15:07:01Z")
> [@Skammer](#): > > I give FL, VA and NC to Romney - Obama gets 290. This is my best guess as well. The only thing that keeps me from thinking this election is in the bag is the possibility of vote counting shenanigans in Ohio. I think there’s a good chance of some pretty shady stuff going on in that state. That said, when the returns start coming in on Tuesday night, if either Virginia or Florida surprise me and go blue it’s over. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/45 "2012-11-03T15:14:54Z")
Mine is Obama 288, Romney 250. Obama gets New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Nevada, Romney gets Florida, NC, Iowa, and Colorado. My map: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama\_vs\_romney\_create\_your\_own\_electoral\_college\_map.html?map=HI\_1,AK\_5,FL\_3,NH\_3,MI\_3,VT\_1,ME\_2,RI\_1,NY\_1,PA\_3,NJ\_2,DE\_1,MD\_1,VA\_3,WV\_5,OH\_3,IN\_7,IL\_1,CT\_3,WI\_3,NC\_7,DC\_1,MA\_1,TN\_6,AR\_5,MO\_7,GA\_7,SC\_7,KY\_5,AL\_5,LA\_5,MS\_5,IA\_3,MN\_3,OK\_5,TX\_6,NM\_3,KS\_5,NE\_5,SD\_6,ND\_6,WY\_5,MT\_6,CO\_3,ID\_5,UT\_5,AZ\_7,NV\_3,OR\_3,WA\_2,CA\_1#previous\_changes](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html?map=HI_1,AK_5,FL_3,NH_3,MI_3,VT_1,ME_2,RI_1,NY_1,PA_3,NJ_2,DE_1,MD_1,VA_3,WV_5,OH_3,IN_7,IL_1,CT_3,WI_3,NC_7,DC_1,MA_1,TN_6,AR_5,MO_7,GA_7,SC_7,KY_5,AL_5,LA_5,MS_5,IA_3,MN_3,OK_5,TX_6,NM_3,KS_5,NE_5,SD_6,ND_6,WY_5,MT_6,CO_3,ID_5,UT_5,AZ_7,NV_3,OR_3,WA_2,CA_1#previous_changes) ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/46 "2012-11-03T22:16:37Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > Mine is Obama 288, Romney 250. Obama gets New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Nevada, Romney gets Florida, NC, Iowa, and Colorado. > > My map: > > [RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Obama vs. Romney Create Your Own Electoral Map](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html?map=HI_1,AK_5,FL_3,NH_3,MI_3,VT_1,ME_2,RI_1,NY_1,PA_3,NJ_2,DE_1,MD_1,VA_3,WV_5,OH_3,IN_7,IL_1,CT_3,WI_3,NC_7,DC_1,MA_1,TN_6,AR_5,MO_7,GA_7,SC_7,KY_5,AL_5,LA_5,MS_5,IA_3,MN_3,OK_5,TX_6,NM_3,KS_5,NE_5,SD_6,ND_6,WY_5,MT_6,CO_3,ID_5,UT_5,AZ_7,NV_3,OR_3,WA_2,CA_1#previous_changes) Are you sure that’s your map? ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/47 "2012-11-03T23:28:36Z")
Obama: Iowa (6) Michigan (16) Nevada (6) Virginia (13) Ohio (18) Pennsylvania (20) Wisconsin (10) Colorado (9) Florida (29) Romney: North Carolina (15) New Hampshire (4) All other states will go as expected. Electoral: Obama 328 Romney 210 I believe the SANDY effect will be very strong for election day voters in Florida and Virginia and possibily North Carolina. A North Carolina win would be a 343/195 disaster for Romney. Crane ---
**Author:** ![xenophon41](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xenophon41/32/253_2.png) [@xenophon41](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xenophon41)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/48 "2012-11-03T23:38:56Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > I would like to amend my prediction. > > FL - Obama > > Obama - 332 > Romney - 206 I think you’re probably pretty much on the nose, but I’m thinking Maine and Nebraska both split their electoral votes based on popular vote in the state. So Romney will pick up 1/4 of Maine, Obama picks up 2/5 of Nebraska which moves one EV from the Romney bucket to the Obama tub: Obama - 333 Romney - 205 ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/49 "2012-11-04T00:26:48Z")
There is not a shred of evidence either Maine or Nebraska will split their votes. The Nebraska legislature gerrymandered their districts to ensure Obama could not win NE-2 again; that was a big embarassment to the GOP there and they made sure to split up the minority vote to prevent a repeat. Maine isn’t giving Romney either distinct. ---
**Author:** ![xenophon41](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xenophon41/32/253_2.png) [@xenophon41](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xenophon41)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/50 "2012-11-04T00:58:02Z")
OK, **RickJay**. I don’t know that the gerrymandering in Nebraska will be that effective, but your observation is valid. As for Maine, your authority on this is probably no better than mine. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 10:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/51 "2012-11-04T10:02:22Z")
Ok, let’s see what our esteemed pundit class [del]is smoking[/del] predicts: Matt Matros: Electoral college 303-235 Obama Popular Vote 51-48 Obama Senate 51D - 47R - 2 Indep Matros is a professional poker player: he’s my baseline. Jim Cramer, alleged investment guru: Electoral college 440-98 Obama Popular Vote 55-45 Obama Senate 53D - 45R - 2 Indep I find this prediction to be ludicrous. The electoral vote is off of Nate’s charts. Juan Williams, Fox News Chatterer, columnist for the Hill Electoral college 298-240 Obama Popular Vote 50-49 Romney Senate 50D - 48R - 2 Indep So Obama will win the electoral vote handily and lose the popular vote by 1 percentage point. Not bloody likely. Leslie Sanchez, Republican Strategist Electoral college 275-263 Romney Popular Vote 51-49 Romney Senate 50D - 48R - 2 Indep This is actually a plausible scenario. It would imply that the polls are systematically biased, but that’s not impossible. Reid Wilson, National Journal. Mainstream inside the beltway organ. Electoral college 294-240 Obama Popular Vote 49.7-48.3 Obama Senate 50D - 48R - 2 Indep A somewhat narrower margin than Nate is predicting, but certainly a defendable scenario. The forecast is a tad more Republican than Nate’s model. Andrew Beyer, Horse Racing columnist, Washington Post Electoral college 284-254 Romney Popular Vote 51-49 Romney Senate 50D - 48R - 2 Indep Not impossible. Rather dubious though. This guy has written books on sports betting. With a forecast like that, I’d like to know his reasoning. He thinks Romney will just eek out a victory in Ohio, but doesn’t say why. > **[Outlook's 16th Crystal Ball contest - The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/opinions/outlook-crystal-ball-contest/?hpid=z2)** > > For our biennial competition, the Outlook section decided to mix it up a bit. We invited several pundits and strategists, as usual, but also people who specialize in forecasting that is decidedly not political. Can the pros hold off the amateurs?... ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/52 "2012-11-04T13:08:10Z")
> [@basefifty](#): > > It makes you wonder if there could be a feasible election strategy whereby a candidate goes for just those 11 states. He’d probably be favored in half of them already, so he’d only need to spread all of his resources across 5 or 6 states. > > _Is there an amount of campaigning and spending which would give Texas to Obama?_ Not this year. Only time will make the blue islands in Texas grow into the sea of Red. (The Electoral Votes are relevant to the Presidential election but don’t give a true picture of the political details of each state.) The Republicans do fear the future here. Why else did the Lege force through Voter ID–which was [thrown out in court](http://www.texasobserver.org/rascals/)? ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/53 "2012-11-04T18:43:08Z")
This is interesting. The consummate beltway insider Michael Barone publishes _Almanac of American Politics_, which gives profiles of all Congressmen. Corporations and their lobbyists pay big bucks to subscribe his organ, _The National Journal_. Michael Barone favors Romney 315 - 223. > **[Taylor Marsh: Nate Silver Versus Michael Barone](https://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/11/taylor-marsh-nate-silver-versus-michael-barone.html#more)** > > Taylor Marsh: \>Nate Silver Versus Michael Barone: THIS NEEDS to be logged for posterity. All that’s missing is Dick Morris in the clown car with Pat Caddell. \>\>Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney…. Romney beats... It’s a very odd column, considering that Obama leads in national polling and in [19 of 20 swing state polls](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/#more-37099). As for “Fundamentals”, according to the Fair Model they favor Romney by perhaps 1/4 to 1/2 percentage point in the popular vote – and that doesn’t take into account the 7.9% unemployment numbers and recent job growth. I’m not bent out of shape about Barone’s outlying conclusions: I am puzzled that he doesn’t weigh this dramatically conflicting evidence. Nate’s model gives Romney perhaps a 15% chance of victory. But if Romney secures 315+ electoral votes, the polls have gone haywire and Nate will have to go return to the drawing board. That said, if Obama wins by 300+, Barone is unlikely to suffer professional embarrassment, which speaks ill for his corporate customers who really should seek better advice. Informed people know that Jim Cramer is a clown. But if Barone’s analysis is dubious, that poses a greater problem as he is thought to be a serious guy. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/54 "2012-11-04T19:41:51Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Michael Barone favors Romney 315 - 223. > [http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/11/taylor-marsh-nate-silver-versus-michael-barone.html#more](http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/11/taylor-marsh-nate-silver-versus-michael-barone.html#more) He’s living in a fantasy world. He is calling Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for Romney. Nothing more than wishful thinking. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/55 "2012-11-04T21:34:37Z")
> [@Fiddle\_Peghead](#): > > Are you sure that’s your map? That’s not my map at all! Ok, so I’ve got no idea how to save maps. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/56 "2012-11-05T01:19:08Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > This is interesting. The consummate beltway insider Michael Barone publishes _Almanac of American Politics_, which gives profiles of all Congressmen. Corporations and their lobbyists pay big bucks to subscribe his organ, _The National Journal_. > > Michael Barone favors Romney 315 - 223. > [http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/11/taylor-marsh-nate-silver-versus-michael-barone.html#more](http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/11/taylor-marsh-nate-silver-versus-michael-barone.html#more) > > It’s a very odd column, considering that Obama leads in national polling and in [19 of 20 swing state polls](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/#more-37099). As for “Fundamentals”, according to the Fair Model they favor Romney by perhaps 1/4 to 1/2 percentage point in the popular vote – and that doesn’t take into account the 7.9% unemployment numbers and recent job growth. I’m not bent out of shape about Barone’s outlying conclusions: I am puzzled that he doesn’t weigh this dramatically conflicting evidence. > > Nate’s model gives Romney perhaps a 15% chance of victory. But if Romney secures 315+ electoral votes, the polls have gone haywire and Nate will have to go return to the drawing board. That said, if Obama wins by 300+, Barone is unlikely to suffer professional embarrassment, which speaks ill for his corporate customers who really should seek better advice. > > Informed people know that Jim Cramer is a clown. But if Barone’s analysis is dubious, that poses a greater problem as he is thought to be a serious guy. I accidentally saw Barone on Fox News spouting his “prediction” with his electoral map emblazoned for all. I was reminded of Bill Maher’s “Dispatches From The Bubble.” It reminded me why I don’t watch Fox News. Oh, and [here is what he had to say four years ago](http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/barone/2008/09/16/mccain-has-the-advantage-over-obama-in-post-convention-polls): > [@](#): > > I see McCain as competitive or leading in states with 342 electoral votes. Advantage shifting toward McCain. He’s a partisan hack. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/57 "2012-11-05T22:07:13Z")
Rush Limbaugh predicts a Romney landslide. Not just a victory. Landslide. [“Everything – Except the Polls – Points to a Romney Landslide”](http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/11/rush-limbaugh-everything-except-the-polls-points-to-a-romney-landslide.html) Modern conservatives. They create their own reality. ---
**Author:** ![jackdavinci](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackdavinci/32/3259_2.png) [@jackdavinci](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jackdavinci)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/58 "2012-11-06T00:01:39Z")
Based on current polling, I’m predicting Obama gets all the swing states except Florida (29) & North Carolina (15), and no split in Maine/Nebraska for an Obama win of 303 to 235. The only state I’m wavering on is Colorado. [http://www.270towin.com/2012\_election\_predictions.php?mapid=bnGD](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bnGD) I was initially annoyed by the lack of partial voting in Nebraska and Maine until I saw a spot to do that in the lower right hand corner. But from what I hear, Nebraska has been reapportioned to prevent the one Democratic seat they got last time, so the point is probably moot. Worst case scenario, Romney gets Colorado and Virginia too for a win of 281 to 257. I don’t know why Michigan is even considered a swing state. ---
**Author:** ![Chessic\_Sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7c8e57/32.png) [@Chessic\_Sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chessic_Sense)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/59 "2012-11-06T00:23:03Z")
I’m with the 303 camp. I think Tim Kaine is going to win VA for Obama. So NC and FL to Romney, the rest to Barry O. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545/60 "2012-11-06T00:38:31Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Jim Cramer, alleged investment guru: > Electoral college 440-98 Obama I… what? How is this possible for even joker like Cramer to have the balls to say? Does Cramer have photos of Romney fucking a sheep he’s planning on releasing? > [@](#): > > Juan Williams, Fox News Chatterer, columnist for the Hill > Electoral college 298-240 Obama > Popular Vote 50-49 Romney > Senate 50D - 48R - 2 Indep > So Obama will win the electoral vote handily and lose the popular vote by 1 percentage point. Not bloody likely. This isn’t likely but is really quite possible. Obama’s lead in national polls is slim to microscopic, but he leads in swing states. Plus, the hurricane may depress Democratic turnout in states like Jersey and New York that will end up solidly Obama anyway. I can very much see Romney winning his states by more than Obama wins his. What I find curious is his specific EV split. Why 298? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/electoral-vote-predictions/639545.md?page=4)