The reason is that with a ~330 mile EV battery, to fill up 250 miles of range with a 350 kW charger will require 83 kWh, or 14 minutes of charging. This is approaching gas pump speeds, which on real vehicles, it’s ~400 miles of range in ~10-15 minutes.
The reason is that with gas pumps, you need to remain present at the pump so you don’t spill flammable fluid everywhere. Then you need to go into the store and pee. So it’s going to take 10-15 real minutes.
With a 350 kW charger, you’d plug in, go into the store and pee, come out, maybe sit in the car 5 minutes and do your walk around inspection, then unplug and off you go.
It’s really, really close. Over long road trips the time loss with an EV with using 350 kW charging is minimal.
And I don’t mind when anyone points out valid reasons why an EV does not work for their particular needs. No worries.
But when this is extrapolated to “this is why EV’s will never become mainstream”, I have a problem with this reasoning.
Or if the reason why an EV does not work for them boils down to “because I know where gas stations are, and I don’t want to be bothered finding out how to charge an EV” - this is pretty lame.
It’s not just the 25 minute drive to work. I’m happy to take my old beater '04 for that. It’s the supplier visits in Auburn Hills, Wixom, Amherst, Sterling Heights, Pontiac; or the plant visits in Cleveland, Oakville, Louisville, Chicago, Buffalo, or even just downriver; or the four week road trip from home to Oregon/California and back.
And now that we’ve been updated to the crappy open office, I expect to spend even more time in my car.
my 5 minute gas fill-up included exiting and entering the highway. So maybe 2 minutes at the station. I didn’t try to hide the down time by saying it coincided with a sudden urge to get a drink or the time spent searching out a gas station. I would wager that your wife spent 30 minutes additional time getting to the charger so that should be added to your example.
It’s great that your wife was able to find a supercharger in a timely manner to help mitigate the delay she incurred because of it. It’s also great you have a garage with a charging port and no need for a car while it’s charging.
What are you talking about? Supercharger stations are almost always just a block or two from the highway exit, just like gas stations. They don’t take 30 minutes to get to if you’re sticking to major routes, and it would be pointless to go to one if they were.
Yes, Tesla drivers should consider the frequency of Supercharger stations on the routes they frequent. There are some places where they are not as common as one would like. But when they are present they’re almost always in reasonable locations (sometimes better than gas stations, since there are fewer restrictions on placement).
When I was driving my gas car, I found that 5 minutes was the absolute bare minimum I could achieve for a fillup. That was for a station directly off the road, with no other cars, fully functional pumps and payment, and no other need to stop. If any of these factors were otherwise, filling up is more like 10-15 minutes.
Actually your initial claim was that maintenance costs on EVs are more expensive than hybrids, and moreover that maintenance costs are so much more that they wipe out any savings in fuel/electricity.
The linked news article doesn’t provide any of the raw data, and the study it’s discussing is behind a paywall. However, there’s another article on Ars Technica that provides a chart from the study. While it’s just a bar graph and there’s no accompanying table with actual numbers, it lets us see that maintenance costs in all cases are minuscule compared with fuel and depreciation costs. They also quote one line that indicates maintenance costs on EVs are lower than on hybrids, which contradicts your initial assertion.
The place where EVs are more expensive is in initial capital outlay, and even there the chart shows EVs as lower in depreciation costs than hybrids, though ICEs unsurprisingly win that category overall.
I don’t think any EV advocates in this thread have claimed them to be cheaper to purchase than competing products. What claims about economy there have been have been regarding operating costs, where the study bears out that EVs are cheaper.
Yes but the study is too short term. There’s only one EV in significant volume, and it has a *significant *failure rate. Tesla just has an extremely generous warranty so the failures haven’t shown up on the bottom line yet. They will. Practically every Tesla youtuber has had their car towed more than once. Drive unit failures are extremely common, despite this being a component that in a Prius, etc, would last the life of the vehicle. Display failures are extremely common. Door handle failures. 12V battery failures. The cars that have made it 200k miles have had their traction batteries replaced a couple times (under warranty, would be 15k+ out of warranty).
You’ll see. I’m sure you’ll say I’m misinformed but I don’t care, the data tells the story. You simply can’t replicate Kaizen (Toyota’s quality culture) in a frantic rushed handful of years. Yes, eventually Tesla will figure out how to automate their process and they might catch up to Toyota quality in 10-20 years - but not today. Those failures are just being masked because Tesla is paying for all the early repairs.
So, again, so you stop accusing me of “moving goalposts”:
I am saying:
Early EVs, which are Teslas and Leafs, have very high failure rates. This is extensively documented many places. It just doesn’t show up in “maintenance” on that academic study because the manufacturer is paying for the early repairs.
Unsubsidized operating cost for a vehicle is fuel + insurance + maintenance. Depreciation does not count in my analysis because these vehicles are subject to spikes in demand and haven’t been produced long enough for the market for them to have consistent behavior.
Taking #1 and #2 into account, used Toyotas (which are much cheaper to begin with, putting them ahead in “depreciation” also) are much, much cheaper to drive than any of the EVs. Hybrid RAV4s and Prii primarily, depending on your use case.
Where is it documented the cost of repairs (which isn’t maintenance) for Teslas versus the planned maintenance for Priuses? Don’t say “everywhere.” Cough it up.
By the way, having owned a Prius V for quite a few years - the difference between that and every Model 3 I’ve been in is obvious. The Prius has no rattles is clearly inferior in comfort (seats, road noise, audio, etc). Priuses also are famous for driving like absolute shit. So if you’re saying that the two cars are somewhere in the neighborhood of a wash in terms of cost, consumers have a clear choice: one car they will not like to drive but won’t be in the shop; and another car that is life-changing to drive but has a reputation for glitches.
Somewhere there’s going to be a fantastic convergence of cost, technology, and reliability that will greatly benefit EVs. Toyota will not be in that conversation for probably a decade, unfortunately.
Ok I linked the wrong article. I meant to link this:
For this example Tesla Model X, driven over 450,000 miles, the vehicle has needed $27,000 in repairs. However, key note, the real repair cost - the one that you would pay if you weren’t abusing Tesla’s unlimited mileage battery warranty and took more normal amounts of time to hit this mileage - would need to include the following items:
a. A new Front Drive Unit (this is 5k+)
b. Two HV batteries (these are going to be $100*170 = $17,000, plus labor. So at *least *$20,000 each)
So more real repair costs: $72,000 for 450k miles. This is an early model X and yes, newer ones *may *have lower failure rates - but Tesla has only been in the business a few short years. Other automakers tend to take 5+ years worth of revisions to really fix a problem, and often won’t really fix it until the next design cycle (which is every 4-6 years)
16 cents a mile repair costs, plus “fuel”, for 20 cents a mile if you are charging at home.
Still not crippling for such an expensive vehicle, and it probably compares favorably to BMWs, etc of similar capabilities. But more than twice as expensive as a Prius or Rav4, which is what I have been saying. (a hybrid will be 4-6 cents a mile, my data comes from here). Plus these vehicles need 5-6.7 cents per mile in fuel, for a total cost of 9-12 cents per mile.
Or half the cost of a Tesla. Plus less variance. The most expensive thing that can break in a hybrid is either the engine or the battery. The engine is about $3000 to swap with a low mileage salvage engine, the battery is $2000 to swap with a new one. Versus $15,000-20,000, all at once, for an EV battery.
Price is certainly one. Anything that has enough battery capacity and fast charging to make it suitable to drive from Minneapolis to Chicago like the model X costs a bazillion dollars.
The other thing is that most existing EVs are sedans. Sedans are a dying market share to the point Ford isn’t even bothering to build many of them. Except for secure trunk storage a crossover SUV can do a lot more without a significant fuel economy penalty. I drive a RAV-4 because a sedan does not fit my needs.
I also will not stand for a car that is expected to need major drive-train work before 200,000 miles. Although Prius batteries can last this long I’ll want to take a wait and see approach for full EVs.
TLDR: The problem with EVs is the battery. At $170 a kWh, each car has a 10-20k battery. Unlike gasoline engines, which are a very refined technology and the good ones will show minimal wear after a half million miles, an EV battery consistently loses capabilities with each charge/discharge cycle and with calendar years. Note that gas engines have almost no calendar year aging - I have driven 25 year old cars that had sat in a garage for 10 years, and experienced no problems for 60k miles after the vehicle had the battery replaced and the fluids all flushed. Also, a worn gas engine can be rebuilt, with the key parts that do wear replaced, and put back into service. This isn’t possible for an EV battery.
An EV battery also is not at all simple. Frankly, if you take into account the dozens of circuit boards inside one, they are more complex than a gas engine.
I know that extended longevity EV batteries are possible, and I expect to see them. They will be put into autonomous electric cars and used for a million miles. All the bugs with pumping liquid through one through hundreds of feet of tubing will get worked out. (or maybe they will standardize on air cooling, which is what Toyota does)
And this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnUM0OWB0dM (the contents of a video is showing all the mistakes found in just one specific model X, by a Tesla tech, who states that basically all of the Xes have at least some of these faults)
And a dozen other Tesla tubers experiencing expensive repairs.
And firsthand knowledge working for a Tier 1 automotive parts supplier as to what goes into making a reliable product.
Dr. Strangelove already pointed out that supper charging stations are conveniently located along major routes, like gas stations. I’d like to point out that most everyone who buys an electric car also puts in a charging station, because that’s cheap and the convenient thing to do if you drive an electric. And it’s okay if you want to unplug the car to go grocery shopping before it’s “full”. You just plug it in again when you get home again. My car is always plugged in when it’s home. Because, why not?
It’s more likely to be the reverse: that Tesla sees a benefit to their bottom line as time goes on. In fact this has already happened–part of the benefit in the last quarter was a reduction in warranty accrual rates.
See this page. The gist is that Tesla has been setting aside significant sums to pay for warranty service–over $2000 per vehicle. Other brands are more like $500 per year. For Tesla, that amounts to 3% of revenue per year.
But the claims rate is only 1%. That’s not directly comparable, of course, since claims are for past cars sold while accrual is for future work. Still, the difference is probably not enough to make up a 3x difference in those rates. Furthermore, Tesla is getting better over time.
I would suggest it’s more likely that Tesla can decrease their warranty accrual rate as they get more confident about future reliability. This helps their bottom line. Tesla has already paid for potential future unreliability as far as the accounting is concerned.