The only real discussion is about how big the “niche” is currently for EV usage, and how fast this “niche” will grow in the near and mid-term.
Most of us using EV’s currently are of the opinion that the “niche” is actually larger than most people think, and is set to grow quite a bit larger, soon.
The disconnect is because of a few reasons:
EV drivers know the reality of what it takes to operate an EV; Non EV drivers are operating on assumptions (some of which are not true, others of which are exaggerations)
People have a poor idea of their actual vehicle usage. They want a car that will be able to handle theoretical conditions that they rarely/never encounter.
People in general don’t like change. They are used to ICE cars. They like ICE cars. They don’t want to change.
There is a lot of misinformation out there about EV’s (see the original post). SOME of this information is coming from organizations/corporations that will see a huge loss of profit with the introduction of this new technology.
I disagree that the set of requirements covered by electric cars are “niche”. It’s my understanding that the majority of people’s regular driving needs are easily and comfortably covered by the abilities of a mid-level modern electric car.
The first steam cars date from 1770 but weren’t useful. The first successful steam car ran in 1801. Commercial steam coaches started roaming England circa 1830; steam autos started infesting France around 1875. Steamers were mass-produced circa 1890-1930. The canoe-bodied Stanley Rocket held the land speed record 1906-1909.
Why no (or few) ECE steamers now? Scale. Steam still powers some large vehicles and produces most of the world’s electricity. Every coal- or gas-fired or nuke plant is a steam engine.
Bicycles, by far, especially worldwide.
The informed wisdom of 115 years ago (Leslie’s Popular Monthly, Jan. 1904) was that EVs were ideally suited for use in cities AND NOWHERE ELSE. Range then was 25-60 miles, or up to 200 in specialty vehicles. Thousands of EV taxis roamed the streets of US cities then. Rich urban women drove EVs because no hand-cranking. But battery life was short.
Side note: Some ICE vehicles then ran on kerosene, which also fueled city lights… where owners tapped the lines to refill for free, heh heh. Not quite like plugging your EV in at a city park.
FWIW, I own a hybrid electric, and it’s super-easy to plug it in, but we sometimes forget to do that. Now, of course, it’s also a hybrid, so it’s not that big a deal if we forget. And it’s not like we forget very often. But maybe once every month or two of regular driving?
We are not brain-damaged. And our car doesn’t flash the remaining charge (which is usually close to zero, since it only goes about 15 miles before switching to burning gas) And it’s not really a problem for us if we forget. But it is incredibly easy to plug in the car. And even so, we sometimes forget.
Well, you do own a hybrid. That puts different pressures on the cranium. It’s not actually important that you plug in, any more than it’s important that I fill up the gas tank when it gets down to half.
My dad has a hybrid too, and the pressures on his brain force him to stop plugging in every few months, because if he doesn’t the gas’ll sit unused and go bad in his tank.
I posted my weekend trip as an example. Either I would have had to drive out of my way for the privilege of waiting to charge or lock the route into the only supercharger along the highway. Back roads were not an option.
that’s an amazingly arrogant thing to say. I’ve owned a self driving car since 1974. I’ve driven myself everywhere I go. that’s 44 years of driving. I know what I need from a car. But if you look at my neighborhood you will see the streets are absolutely filled with cars. There’s no place to plug in and no guarantee if you had an outlet the space in front of it would be available. It’s first come-first serve in parking spaces. This is a truism for a great many city dwellers. And here’s a videoshowing use of different charging stations and the various plugs you will have to deal with.
And finally, EV’s are expensive and many of the car companies are limited to where you can get them fixed. ALL of this needs to be factored into a car purchase.
100% horse plop. People LOVE change. look at cell phones or any other product that adds value. I’ll be well shod of alternator/timing belt replacement. Front wheel drive ICE cars are just so much harder to work on.
Yes, You’ve managed to project your prejudices on other people.
This article (updated Sept 2019) shows only 5 EVs with a 250 mile range; one of them is a Porsche Taycan that starts over $100,000; most people aren’t getting that just based on what they can afford. The Tesla S & X models are also both in luxury car price range. We’re now down to two vehicles that the masses can afford & have over 250 mile range. One is a sedan (Tesla 3) & a compact SUV, the Hyundai Kona.
To date, you don’t have many affordable options for long range & there are no options for larger vehicles/ towing capability. Not only do I fit into one of those latter categories but the majority of people I know do as well.
I’m not against them. I know that the vehicles will get better (longer range, larger, more powerful) & that the away-from-home charging infrastructure will improve & that x years down the road I’ll probably get one but until that happens (& there’s a solution for apartment dwellers/those without dedicated parking) they are & will remain niche.
Upthread, I mentioned that EVs are in the “early adopter” phase. If you’re old enough to remember the introduction of CD players, VHS players, DVD players or flat screen TVs, you may remember that during this phase, these things were expensive. More than most people would pay for them. But later, the prices dropped and many more people bought these things. I’m sure the same thing will happen with EVs (particularly ones with higher ranges).
I’m not certain. The batteries are intrinsically expensive. That’s really the sticking point, the cost of the battery. If we have a major advance in battery technology I think electric cars will take off in a big way, because they do have a lot of advantages.
Yes, the batteries are expensive. But it will not take a major advance in technology; Battery prices have been steadily dropping. The “crossover point”, when an EV is cheaper than an equivalent gas car is going to be coming sooner than we may expect.
In addition, the article states that "(research) expects bigger cost improvements in the electric powertrain, as “large-volume manufacturing is only now beginning for such parts.” By 2030, costs for motors, inverters and power electronics could be 25 to 30 percent lower than they are today. "
So of all the electric vehicles, we have exactly one AWD Crossover SUV and no pickup trucks. With your only other choices being sedans. No wonder electric cars are such slow sellers. There’s a good reason sedan sales are in a free-fall; SUV crossovers are simply a lot more capable and versatile for not much of a penalty in gas mileage. If you’re only producing electric sedans you’ve already limited yourself to a maximum of 25% of the market.
The conversion of people to EVs is slowed by dis- and misinformation spread by people who genuinely think they know what they are talking about, as evidenced by this thread.
Not just ‘forget to charge’, but also being unable to. If you’re staying at a friend’s house and parked at the end of the street, staying at a friend’s apartment and parked in a lot a block away, you’re not charging that night. If you’re out of power for two days, you’re not charging then - and blackouts are becoming normal in California for at least part of the year. If the same kids who steal change from unlocked cars decide to steal a power cable or even just unplug it one night, again no charge. There are a lot of situations where the assumption that an EV is at 90% charge at the start of each day (much less the 100% charge people tend to use in examples) doesn’t hold true, regardless of how much it enrages EV proponents.
Saying that my argument goes off the rails because of something I didn’t argue is rather silly. If you want to claim that I’m going off the rails, do it because of something I actually wrote, not a strawman that someone else came up with and posted in the thread.
At no point did I even talk about anything like “driving a 250+ mile trip, then forget to charge.” The initial scenario I gave was of doing a commute, drive to an activity, forget to charge, then decide to make a trip during the next day, with a total distance of 235 miles that I would refer to as multiple trips. So, not a 250+ mile trip, not really even one trip, and the forgotten charging was on a regular night and not at the end of a long trip. I also didn’t argue that that specific scenario was likely to be a ‘frequent event’. The other example trip, that was over 250 miles, did not involve any forgetting to charge at all, and was also not claimed to be a frequent event.
At no point did I claim that remembering to charge qualifies as ‘planning my life around the car’. I stated, and have clarified multiple times, that ‘planning my life around the car’ refers to things like needing to plan overnight and longer stays, including choice of hotel around charger availability, needing to plan food and bathroom breaks around charger availability instead of around one’s own body, needing to allow significantly more time on road trips to account for charging (adding an hour two a 1.5 hour trip in one example, adding 2-3 hours to a long trip in another), also allowing more time because EV range drops significantly at higher speeds.
I can think of three EV AWD SUVs (MNOP). Tesla Model X, Audi e-tron, and Jaguar i-Pace. Yes, those are all premium luxury SUVs.
In two years things will look very different, too. The Ford Mustang Mach-e SUV was just announced earlier this week, and will be available in two wheel and all wheel drive. Tesla will be revealing their pickup truck tomorrow. Rivian and Bollinger both have EV pickups and SUVs coming. Ford is working on an electric F-150.
I disagree, since I think I can be considered ‘on the other side’ but I certainly wouldn’t characterize the set of people that EVs work for a ‘niche subset of car owners’, or that they are not broadly practical. I think the position that the loudest EV proponents in this thread are taking is closer to “EVs are superior to ICE vehicles for all but a tiny niche subset of drivers in the country,” which is what I have taken issue with. Switching from an ICE to an EV (ignoring the price difference) involves accepting limitations, which will range from ‘inconsequential’ to ‘invonvenient’ to ‘crippling’ for a variety of people currently using ICE vehicles.
Personally, I think EVs are superior a option for about 40 to 50% of car owners in the U.S. Your “inconsequential” category. (based on nothing but my own impressions of what other people do) So, neither “side” would be a “tiny niche.”