# Elizabeth Warren 2020. How do you feel about it? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 9, 2018, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028 "2018-09-09T00:14:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/81 "2018-09-12T13:38:17Z")
Aren’t Ige - assuming he gets re-elected - and Northam more likely candidates? ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/82 "2018-09-12T13:53:07Z")
> [@GoPostie](#): > > If the Democrats put up a beltway careerist, they may as well save themselves the money. At this point in US politics, Stormy would have a better chance. She’s at least as qualified as Trump ever was. Plus, she built her business completely on her own, without a big initial investment from her father. #Clifford2020 ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/83 "2018-09-12T14:39:53Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > If your point is that he also had the advantage of being something of a good ol’ boy, I’ll concede that. It’s easy to write off every other Dem candidate with a quick explanation of why they did less well with non-college-educated whites: > [ul] > [li]Carter: failed first term[/li][li]Mondale: trounced by Reagan juggernaut[/li][li]Dukakis: Northeast intellectual[/li][li]Gore: Clinton fatigue, stuffy[/li][li]Kerry: Northeast intellectual[/li][li]Obama: black[/li][li]Hillary: Where do you start?[/li][/ul] > But my point was that, whetever intangibles he had going for him, the 2020 candidate is going to need by the truckload, due to the headwinds of willful ignorance that Bill didn’t have to face. I think you mean “Kerry: Swiftboated”. Admittedly Kerry was a tepid candidate but let’s not pretend the smear campaign against a decorated veteran wasn’t a major factor. That said, Beto’s looking better and better. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/84 "2018-09-12T14:44:11Z")
I think it would be huge gift to Donald Trump. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/85 "2018-09-12T14:50:51Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > I think you mean “Kerry: Swiftboated”. Admittedly Kerry was a tepid candidate but let’s not pretend the smear campaign against a decorated veteran wasn’t a major factor. > > That said, Beto’s looking better and better. I’m curious: Do you want Beto to lose in Texas so he’s free for a Presidential run or do you want him to win and give up his Senate 2 years into his term? ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/86 "2018-09-12T14:55:28Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > I think you mean “Kerry: Swiftboated”. Admittedly Kerry was a tepid candidate but let’s not pretend the smear campaign against a decorated veteran wasn’t a major factor. > > That said, Beto’s looking better and better. Well, I was talking about the candidates’ inherent qualities as compared with Bill Clinton’s appeal to uneducated Midwestern whites. But, yes, any Democrat is going to face smear campaigns, because that’s the GOP playbook. So the 2020 candidate is going to have to have the personality to rise above them – not in an intellectual sense, but in a way that makes the smears look small and desperate. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/87 "2018-09-12T14:59:24Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I’m curious: Do you want Beto to lose in Texas so he’s free for a Presidential run or do you want him to win and give up his Senate 2 years into his term? No need to choose. He can run for President while holding a Senate seat. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/88 "2018-09-12T15:13:27Z")
It has been suggested that if O’Rourke ends up with a narrow loss in Texas he could still use the national exposure to launch a Presidential campaign without the loss unduly hurting him, given the massive swing to the left a close election would still represent. If he wins, any presidential ambitions presumably get pushed out to 2024 or 2028. And if he loses in Texas bigly it all goes away. That said, Marco Rubio seems to have no problem spending the majority of his Senate terms on the presidential campaign trail and he refused to rule it out for 2020 at his last election, so immediately running for the next tier up isn’t without precedent. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/89 "2018-09-12T15:16:52Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > No need to choose. He can run for President while holding a Senate seat. Of course, almost exactly like Cruz did. Except that if Cruz had won, another Republican would probably replace him. Having a Dem Senator from Texas is a pretty big win to throw away. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/90 "2018-09-12T15:23:18Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Marco Rubio seems to have no problem spending the majority of his Senate terms on the presidential campaign trail The way Rubio does his Senate job leaves him with a lot of spare time. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/91 "2018-09-12T15:45:19Z")
I have a feeling that neither of you think Rubio or Cruz would be a good role model for Beto’s senate career. He’s young still – no need to rush for the top job. If giving up their first Texas senator in 25 years is the only way for the Dems to beat Trump, that’s pretty bad. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/92 "2018-09-12T15:48:05Z")
Let him get elected first, then we can discuss his longer-term prospects. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/93 "2018-09-12T15:52:50Z")
Oh, I agree. I was responding to Gyrate who specifically brought up a Beto Presidential run. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/94 "2018-09-12T16:11:48Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Scolded, you say? Hmm … what’s the common factor there? :dubious: Sadly, “authoritative woman = scold” _is a thing_. It’s unfortunate. But it’s a thing. Is it a thing that could hurt Warren in the election? Is THIS really the election where we want to find out? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/95 "2018-09-12T16:15:37Z")
We already know that answer. This wouldn’t be the first election in which a woman was a candidate. We just had one, in fact, and we know the words - scold, shrill, harpy, b\*\*\*\*, like my ex-wife, mommy dearest, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/96 "2018-09-12T16:22:10Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > WADR I disagree. Any black Democrat will get 95+% of the black vote in the general election. I think that’s almost a given. The idea that the second black President would get less support comes IMO from non-blacks. To get general support, a black Presidential nominee has to be charismatic, to attract non-black votes. A non-black Presidential nominee won’t get the automatic black vote. > > Which was Hillary’s problem, and is Warren’s. People don’t like to be scolded - they need a better reason to vote than that people will call them names if they don’t. > > Obama, for all his flaws, realized that. “Hope and change” worked - “deplorables” didn’t. > > Regards, > Shodan Neither of us is black though. Also does black turnout increase when there is a black senator or representative running, or black governor? I don’t know. Democrats generally get about 90% of the black vote. Obama got 95%. Also 13% of the electorate in 2008 was black, vs 12% in 2016 despite the share of blacks in the general population probably going up from 2008-2016. This implies more blacks stayed home in 2016. I don’t know if Cory Booker will see an increase in black turnout the way Obama did. Having said that, Hillary did about as well among black women as Obama, but she did far worse among black men. Black women voted 96 vs 94% democrats in 2008 vs 2016. Black men on the other hand voted 95 vs 82% democrat in 2008 vs 2016. That probably played a role in Hillarys loss. Like it or not, I’m guessing about 10-15% of black men would be more willing to vote for a male democratic candidate. As far as scolding, Hillary did win 66 million votes, about the same number of votes Obama won in 2012. She just didn’t win them in the right states. She lost the midwest, but she won California by a bigger margin than Obama. She also lost Texas by a smaller margin. Hillary wasn’t some grossly unpopular candidate. She won 66 million votes. She just lost the midwest by 80,000 votes. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/97 "2018-09-12T16:26:53Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > … > > Hillary wasn’t some grossly unpopular candidate. She won 66 million votes. She just lost the midwest by 80,000 votes. She lost to Trump, that is pretty good proof she was unpopular. Obama went up against a much stronger candidate and won. Kerry was probably worse yet, he couldn’t unseat Bush/Cheney. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/98 "2018-09-12T16:53:09Z")
> [@Lamoral](#): > > Sadly, “authoritative woman = scold” _is a thing_. It’s unfortunate. But it’s a thing. > > Is it a thing that could hurt Warren in the election? > > Is THIS really the election where we want to find out? I thought you found that out in 2016. > [@Wesley Clark](#): > > I don’t know if Cory Booker will see an increase in black turnout the way Obama did. I don’t know either. Part of it is that Obama is charismatic, and McCain (and Hillary) were not. Then in 2012 Obama was the incumbent, and the default is that the incumbent wins. Not always - Carter lost for a number of reasons, but one reason was that Reagan was much more charismatic than he. Bush 41 lost, and one reason was that Bill was more charismatic than he. > [@](#): > > Having said that, Hillary did about as well among black women as Obama, but she did far worse among black men. Black women voted 96 vs 94% democrats in 2008 vs 2016. Black men on the other hand voted 95 vs 82% democrat in 2008 vs 2016. That probably played a role in Hillarys loss. Like it or not, I’m guessing about 10-15% of black men would be more willing to vote for a male democratic candidate. Again, WADR it isn’t so much as who they vote for - it’s the I Don’t Care Enough to Actually Vote that defeated Hillary. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/99 "2018-09-12T17:01:30Z")
Yes saying she was a popular candidate and won a lot of votes is really just saying “the Democratic Party is a popular party in New York and California”. They would have voted for anyone who was the Democratic nominee. They voted for her because she was a Democrat running against Donald Trump, not because she was Hillary Clinton. You could say that the election is like a baseball game. Each team hits many balls down the field, but the important thing is where they go and what happens to them when they get there. The game, in theory, is determined by how many runs are scored. But in practice, it’s determined by how well the players can perform in clutch situations. Each inning is different just as each state in the election is different. Depending on the configuration of the players on base, the pitcher, the hitter, etc, one inning can make or break the game. The Midwest was the inning that broke the game for Hillary. A good manager of a team - or in this case of a political party - will regroup afterwards and say, “here’s what happened, here’s what went wrong, this is what we need to do to build up our ability to deal with this kind of situation if it happens again, etc.” In this case instead of doing it, as far as I can tell they’re just jumping up and down yelling “THE OTHER TEAM SUCKS! THE OTHER TEAM SUCKS!” ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2018, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028/100 "2018-09-12T17:16:45Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > I thought you found that out in 2016. Yes, we did. > [@Shodan](#): > > Which was Hillary’s problem, and is Warren’s. People don’t like to be scolded [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elizabeth-warren-2020-how-do-you-feel-about-it/821028.md?page=6)